The UK Is Really Breaking Apart—Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland Are Joining Forces

Sensor Studio

Things are heating up in the UK! Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are making bold moves toward self-determination, meeting for the first time to plot their futures. What could this mean for the UK and Europe? Dive into the drama, politics, and high-stakes plans! Don’t miss out—subscribe for more updates and drop a comment on what surprised you most! #UK #Independence #Politics #Europe #News  👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@센서스튜디오  0:00 - Introduction and Independence Talks 0:47 - Scope and Aims of Discussions 1:46 - Post-Independence Scenarios 2:30 - Challenges of Secession 3:37 - European and International Reactions 4:27 - Political Momentum and Influences 5:56 - International Voices and Economic Concerns 6:41 - Economic and EU Challenges

Transcript

00:00Things are turning out very strange right now.

00:01Scotland, Wales, which make up the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland have started talking about independence.

00:06And it seems like news that will shake the UK will break soon.

00:09According to reports from The Guardian and The Telegraph,

00:11John Swinney, First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party,

00:14Rona Pioberth, leader of Plaid Cymru, First Minister of Wales,

00:17and Michelle O'Neill, First Minister of Northern Ireland,

00:19are scheduled to meet in Cardiff, Wales, on September 14th.

00:21In this way, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland's First Ministers

00:24gathering to discuss independence is a first in British history.

00:26They will meet not as heads of their devolved governments,

00:28but as party leaders to discuss self-determination

00:30and are reportedly set to sign a joint declaration and an MOU

00:33affirming the right to self-determination.

00:35What they demand from the UK is simple,

00:37that the UK central government respect the will of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland

00:41and recognize their right to decide their own constitutional status through a referendum.

00:45In other words, they are demanding independence referendums.

00:47It will occur, of course, for the British government to prepare for constitutional changes in each region

00:51and establish the necessary procedures.

00:53What is particularly noteworthy in this agreement

00:55is that it doesn't stop at merely discussing whether to achieve independence.

00:58The three parties also plan to include on their cooperative agenda

01:00the direction they will take if independence or a change in constitutional status actually happens.

01:04The joint discussions will cover not only the economy and energy,

01:07but also relations with Europe and international cooperation.

01:10In other words, while a referendum hasn't taken place yet

01:12and independence hasn't been decided,

01:13the nature of these talks has shifted somewhat compared to past independence debates

01:16as they have already begun discussing the post-independence political and economic trajectory.

01:20In particular, relations with the European Union are being highlighted as a crucial issue.

01:24It is known that if Scotland and Wales choose independence in the future,

01:28they would support pursuing EU membership.

01:29Although the UK withdrew from the EU through Brexit,

01:32an independent Scotland and Wales would actually be looking to strengthen ties with Europe once again.

01:38Therefore, for them independence doesn't just mean separating from the UK,

01:41it's also a matter of deciding which international order they will be incorporated into after independence, right?

01:45In the case of Northern Ireland, the direction is slightly different.

01:48Rather than forming a separate independent state,

01:50Northern Ireland is known to lean toward reunifying with the Republic of Ireland

01:53and, consequently, being incorporated into that system.

01:56If this happened, Scotland and Wales would pursue EU membership as independent nations,

02:00while Northern Ireland would enter the EU system through reunification with Ireland,

02:04creating two different paths.

02:05All three regions are currently within the UK,

02:07and though they face different political situations,

02:09they share the common goal of strengthening ties with Europe for their future.

02:12Furthermore, this cooperation is expected to include plans to bolster relations with European nations

02:17throughout the independence process.

02:19Therefore, their discussions go beyond merely demanding permission for a referendum.

02:22They can be seen as progressing with diplomatic and economic cooperation in mind,

02:26which will be necessary if independence or constitutional changes become a reality.

02:30Although the actual independence process has not yet begun,

02:32the fact that they have started discussing blueprints for post-independence together

02:35is a remarkably significant part of this agreement.

02:37Of course, it's still hard to say there's a high possibility that these three regions will actually separate from the

02:41UK.

02:41Looking at current public opinion alone, support for independence or unification does not reach a majority.

02:47Recent polls show support for Scottish independence at around 47%,

02:50while Northern Ireland's support for Irish unification stands at around 36%,

02:54and Wales' support for independence is around 32%.

02:57In Scotland's case, while support for independence has reached a considerable level,

03:00public opinion has shown a trend of slightly weakening recently.

03:03So, even if an actual referendum were to be held,

03:06it's hard to be certain that the independence proposal would pass.

03:09Most importantly, holding a referendum itself is no easy task.

03:12Scotland already held an independence referendum in 2014,

03:15but the Scottish Parliament currently lacks the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum

03:19without the consent of the UK government.

03:22The UK Supreme Court also ruled in 2022 that the Scottish Parliament

03:25could not independently push forward a bill for an independence referendum.

03:28Therefore, for Scotland to hold another referendum,

03:30legal and political agreement from the UK central government is required.

03:33The procedure is different again for Northern Ireland.

03:35In this region, the 1998 Belfast Agreement established a separate institutional process

03:39for altering its constitutional status as for when a referendum on unification with Ireland will be held,

03:44that will be determined by the UK government.

03:46And under the current circumstances where public support for unification falls far short of a majority,

03:50the likelihood of an actual vote taking place is not high.

03:52On top of that, the stance of European nations is also a variable.

03:55If moves in Scotland and Wales to break away from the UK,

03:57and Northern Ireland's moves to break away from the UK actually progress to independence or unification,

04:01other European countries will inevitably be mindful of their own domestic separatist issues as well.

04:05Catalonia and the Basque Country in Spain, Corsica in France,

04:08and Flanders in Belgium are also engaged in debates over regional autonomy and independence.

04:12If the UK's dissolution is seen as a successful precedent,

04:14there is also the potential for independence movements in other regions to use it as political justification.

04:19Therefore, from the perspective of European governments,

04:20they have no choice but to carefully evaluate how constitutional changes in the UK

04:24might affect their own territorial integrity and political stability.

04:27For this reason, if moves toward the breakup of the UK advance to an actual independence phase,

04:30European nations are far more likely to adopt a fairly cautious stance rather than actively welcoming it.

04:34Of course, even if independence is not actually achieved,

04:36that doesn't mean the significance of this movement simply vanishes.

04:38What matters more than whether independence succeeds or fails

04:40is the fact that the option of independence is now being openly discussed within the UK,

04:44especially in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

04:46The very fact that leaders are meeting together for the first time in history to discuss a joint response

04:49highlights a political landscape that is distinctly different from the past.

04:52It also suggests that it has become far more difficult for the UK's central government

04:55to exert tight control over each region's demands as it once did.

04:58Even if independence wouldn't be easy in practice,

04:59this movement cannot be taken lightly as it serves as a political signal

05:02that internal solidarity within the UK is weakening.

05:04So why is talk of independence suddenly flaring up again inside the UK like this?

05:07Behind this lies a fairly major shift that has recently emerged in UK politics.

05:11In fact, in the history of devolution in the UK, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland,

05:15all three regions, found themselves in a situation where nationalist parties

05:18advocating for independence or Irish unification came to power.

05:21On top of this, recent remarks by British Prime Minister Andy Burnham

05:23also became an important factor.

05:24Prime Minister Burnham addressed Scotland's

05:26Prospect of an Independence Referendum, suggesting that rather than completely ruling it out,

05:29the government could consider the referendum question if a clear majority opinion forms in Scotland.

05:33Of course, this does not mean he intends to allow a vote right now,

05:35but it is closer to the British government mentioning the conditions under which

05:38an independence vote itself could be discussed.

05:40However, to the forces that have been demanding independence,

05:42such a remark cannot help but be taken as quite a significant shift.

05:44As the London government had shown quite a negative attitude toward demands

05:48for an independence referendum all this time, boosting public opinion further, and...

05:51Using that as a basis, they could judge that political room has opened up

05:55to demand official procedures from the British government.

05:57On top of this came President Trump's recent remarks.

05:59During his visit to Ireland, President Trump publicly expressed his support

06:02for the reunification of Northern Ireland and Ireland,

06:04and reconfirmed the same stance the following day.

06:07In particular, the fact that an American president publicly expressed direct support

06:10for the issue of Irish reunification inevitably holds considerable political significance

06:14for the nationalist forces in Northern Ireland.

06:16In fact, while the British government maintains the position that public opinion

06:19is not yet clear enough to hold a referendum on Irish reunification,

06:22President Trump's remarks have pushed this issue back into the international political spotlight.

06:26With independence discussions underway in Scotland and Wales,

06:29the reunification issue is regaining attention in Northern Ireland,

06:32and on top of this, the US president has publicly stated his stance.

06:35As a result, nationalist factions in each region seem to consider this the right moment

06:39to push their demands more aggressively to the London government.

06:42However, there is an issue that must be examined here, the economy.

06:44Declaring independence doesn't mean the economic system

06:47that operated within the single nation of the UK will remain intact.

06:50In fact, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales gaining independence means

06:53one of the first challenges they would face is national finance.

06:55Tasks previously managed by the British government,

06:57such as tax collection, welfare, and pensions,

06:59would have to be run directly by the new nations.

07:01Following independence, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales

07:03would have to establish separate fiscal systems,

07:05and negotiate with the UK on how much of the existing national debt they would take on.

07:09The currency issue is also quite critical.

07:11Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales would need to decide

07:13whether to continue using the British pound after independence,

07:15create their own currencies, or choose another monetary system.

07:17If they introduce their own currencies,

07:19they would need central banks, foreign exchange reserves,

07:21and financial regulations, systems established from scratch.

07:23Conversely, if they continue to use the pound,

07:25they could face constraints in monetary policy

07:26even after becoming independent nations.

07:28In particular, interest rates and financial stability policies

07:30for Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales

07:32could become difficult to determine independently,

07:34which poses a problem.

07:35Financial markets could also react sensitively.

07:37During the process of independence,

07:38the country's fiscal condition, monetary policy,

07:40and the outcome of negotiations with the UK becoming uncertain

07:42could cause companies and investors to delay investment decisions.

07:44Financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies

07:46may also see their headquarters, assets,

07:48and regulatory frameworks pressured to decide which country to base them in.

07:51Rather than independence itself,

07:52the uncertainties arising during the process of preparing for independence

07:54could place a burden on the economy.

07:55As well, another critical factor is EU membership.

07:57If Scotland pursues EU membership after gaining independence,

07:59it could create opportunities to expand trade with Europe,

08:01but the accession process requires separate negotiations

08:03and institutional restructuring.

08:04To become an EU member state,

08:05it's fiscal, legal, financial, and trade systems

08:07must align with EU standards across various sectors,

08:09requiring considerable preparation from both the government and businesses

08:11to pursue independence and EU accession simultaneously.

08:13Therefore, independence is not just a single political decision.

08:15It is a complex, long-term challenge

08:17that entails fundamental institutional transformations

08:18across taxation, currency, trade, finance,

08:20and national public finances.

08:22However, another problem here is that it remains questionable

08:23whether countries like Spain or France

08:25could even recognize these breakaway regions

08:26as sovereign states in the first place.

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