00:00Oklahoma State, Oregon.
00:02Now, allow me to just add to the story.
00:05I last year, somewhat famously, really liked Gundy.
00:10Gosh, I can't even.
00:13In the trip to Austin.
00:15And I got to be honest with you, Dave, I forgot how bad it was.
00:18I knew it was bad.
00:19I forgot it was 69-3 bad.
00:24You mean, Kevin, you don't hit 100% of your games like everyone expects?
00:30No, but you know what?
00:32To be fair, I think I was only getting 28-1⁄2 with Oklahoma State.
00:38So, you know, I could have been getting 58-1⁄2
00:40and we wouldn't have covered the game.
00:42And yet here I am again, backing Oklahoma State.
00:46Now, I will tell people this number is 23-1⁄2 everywhere.
00:50On Fanatics, the 24-1⁄2 was minus 125.
00:53I thought that was worth it to, you know, throw this up a little bit more
00:57because 24-1⁄2 is obviously a number that it's far likelier to land 24
01:02than it is to land 22.
01:04I think we can all understand that.
01:08The buy low on Oklahoma State is that,
01:12so Michigan last week nearly lost to Western Michigan.
01:18Oklahoma State actually lost by 14 to Tulsa as two touchdown favorites.
01:26How does that happen?
01:29Turnovers, turnovers, and more turnovers.
01:32Three fumbles, an interception, and two turnovers on downs.
01:38Wouldn't surprise me if this hyped-up Oklahoma State team
01:43who's hearing a bunch of them are future NFL players,
01:48including Drew Mestemaker, the quarterback that last year led college football
01:51in passing yards and people thought this year could find himself
01:54in the conversation for QB1, certainly a first-rounder,
01:57if this group wasn't all the way in on next week's game,
02:03a.k.a. this week's game, against Oregon.
02:07The number in the summer was 17-1⁄2.
02:10So we've now added a touchdown to the number.
02:14And it's already a lot to ask a team like Oregon to go on the road
02:17and cover a big number.
02:19You're now asking them to cover an even bigger number.
02:21And by the way, not because of what Oregon did.
02:25And that's what really kind of sealed the deal for me, Dave,
02:30on how I was going to bet this one.
02:33There were conversations last week in the middle of Oregon-Boise
02:36where people were like, oh, my gosh, are they really going to lose?
02:40It was 17-7, Boise State, with 30 seconds left in the first half.
02:46Now, Moore rips the touchdown to the big tight end,
02:49and then they start to kind of trade blows,
02:51and ultimately Oregon wins that dance 34-27.
02:57But they were a 24-and-a-half-point favorite.
03:01So it's not as if they performed to their level ATS either.
03:07I, again, I don't think these teams are going to do a home-at-home
03:10for the rest of eternity.
03:11So it's kind of one last chance here after last year.
03:14But I'm rolling with Oklahoma State in this spot, Dave.
03:17I think they cover this 24-and-a-half number.
03:20To be clear, I think they can keep this within two touchdowns.
03:24The beauty about how you bet and I bet on this show
03:28is there's plenty of opportunity for us to both be right
03:31and have different bets.
03:32And you're on Oklahoma State plus the number,
03:34which makes sense considering the situation
03:37and how it's up a touchdown more than it was.
03:39And, again, I'm moving away from the point spread
03:43and the fact that it adjusted by a touchdown off a one-game sample size.
03:46I say I want nothing to do with it, and I'm purely going to isolate
03:50an offense that I thought underperformed last week
03:53based on the numbers, and that is Oregon's offense,
03:55who under Dan Lanning, their games have averaged 65 points a game
04:00in non-conference games.
04:01Now look at last week versus Boise.
04:03They had 34 points when all was said and done,
04:05over almost 500 yards of offense.
04:08Three of their drives ended in zero points in Boise territory.
04:13Expected value of what they have.
04:15They could have thrown up.
04:1640-some-odd points last week.
04:18You mentioned it earlier.
04:20Yeah, you wore it well.
04:21They scored 69 on Oklahoma State last year on 631 yards.
04:27The Cowboys allowed 24 to Tulsa last week
04:31and looked awful in doing so.
04:32So I'm isolating the Oregon offense and only the Oregon offense.
04:35And I'm going to go over 38.5.
04:37I expect them to score in the 40s.
04:39Regardless if you cover your 24.5 or not,
04:42we could have a very similar score to last week,
04:44and it could be 45 to 28.
04:47You cover, I cover.
04:49We could get this done.
04:50So I like the Oregon offense.
04:53I think Dante Moore is phenomenal, and they're going to score and score at will.
04:56What doesn't surprise me about last week's game with Oklahoma State is you're seeing this in the era of college
05:03football that we're in.
05:04And, yes, Lane Kiffin and LSU are a different scenario.
05:06But that's a whole new team there in Stillwater.
05:10Like, 60 new players, of course, they're going to have turnovers and mistakes and look bad.
05:15To expect these teams to put it together with a new coach and a new quarterback and a bunch of
05:20new players is just unrealistic,
05:21which is why the week one of college football is arguably the hardest week to bet nonstop.
05:26You don't know what you're going to see.
05:28I didn't think LSU could put it together, and they scored 100 on Clemson.
05:31I just think Oregon's going to score and score at will.
05:35Now, take the game over?
05:37That's trusting Oklahoma State a little bit more than I'm willing to give,
05:40so I'm just going to do what I do and isolate the Oregon team total over 38 and a half.
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