00:00Another time zone game, right, where we have Oregon from the West Coast coming to the East Coast to take on Penn State.
00:07They've actually kind of bucked the trend a little bit.
00:09They're 4-0 when they've traveled to the Eastern and Central time zone, 2-2 against the spread.
00:17But I'm going to give the other nugget you gave this week in the pick six plus.
00:22This is a different animal, right?
00:23They're going to a whiteout.
00:24This isn't going to Purdue or Wisconsin or Northwestern or even the big house in Ann Arbor.
00:32The whiteout, you know, I think you called it the best home field advantage in college football.
00:38They're 14-8 since they've started this tradition.
00:42They are 15-6-1 against the spread in whiteout games.
00:46These aren't my numbers.
00:47These are Brett's numbers.
00:48You know why I know these?
00:50Because I'm subscribed to pick six plus.
00:51That's why I know this.
00:52So you make me sound smarter.
00:55So what do you think with this matchup?
00:58Two top 10 teams, two national title contenders.
01:02Yeah, absolutely.
01:04With Penn State, they were my pick in the preseason, my number one team coming in in the magazine.
01:08I liked what they had on defense coming back.
01:10A lot of guys could have gone pro.
01:12They returned to Penn State.
01:13Same with the quarterback.
01:14They have a veteran guy, Drew Aller, former five-star.
01:17A pair of five-star backs with Singleton and Allen.
01:19And the offensive line has four all-conference linemen.
01:22So I liked all of that.
01:24I liked their coordinators, two of the smartest in the game.
01:27And then their only weakness was that receiver.
01:29And I think they patched it up pretty well from the portal, bringing in Traber Pena, an all-ACC contender from Syracuse, Hudson from USC, Devontae Ross from Troy.
01:38So I think they've upgraded.
01:39Now, but here's the catch.
01:40They haven't played anybody with a pulse yet.
01:42And it's looked tough at times.
01:44It's like been pulling teeth with this offense, trying to get points.
01:47A couple games, the FIU game was like 13-0 for the longest time.
01:51And then you contrast that with how Oregon has looked.
01:53Again, a weak opponent slate.
01:55But they're just putting up jackpot numbers.
01:57Just 70-point bombs and scoring at will.
02:01In the Oklahoma State game, it looked like they were playing a 7-on-7 scrimmage.
02:04It was just unbelievable.
02:06So different performances so far.
02:08I think the biggest stat difference is in the explosives when you look at that.
02:12Oregon top 10 in explosive passing and explosive rushing.
02:15Penn State well below average in both.
02:17So not many chunk plays coming from Penn State yet.
02:21All that to say, they haven't been tested, either of them really.
02:24It's the first real test.
02:25I'm going to go Penn State at home with the 3.5 points.
02:28I still trust what they have in that building, talent-wise.
02:31And then you touched on it.
02:32The best home field advantage in college football, I believe it.
02:35But not only are they 15-6 against the spread, that's coming up against their best opponent
02:40every season.
02:40I mean, that's usually a top five Ohio State or Michigan when they were really good.
02:45But yeah, the state's back 20 years.
02:46It's a pretty tough place to go.
02:48And not just 15-6 against the spread.
02:50It's a current 9-0 run.
02:52So they're doing it the last nine years or last nine whiteouts.
02:56So very impressive.
02:57I'll go Penn State to win by about six to seven points.
02:59A tight one, but enough to cover here.
03:02And we'll see if they prove as a playoff contender or playoff favorite.
03:05Yeah, as you mentioned, a lot of guys coming back.
03:09A lot of guys that maybe were projected to leave early.
03:12Very reminiscent of the 2024 Buckeyes, the 2023 Wolverines that had a lot of guys running
03:19back, coming back.
03:21I can remember the Michigan team.
03:23Both of those teams also had very weak out-of-conference schedules.
03:27Michigan, I remember that year, started out.
03:29It looked like they were kind of sleepwalking through those first couple games.
03:33They didn't really look so impressive.
03:35Do you think it's possible Penn State was holding a little something back for this game?
03:39Definitely possible.
03:40They could have been playing a little vanilla there.
03:42Or maybe just not fully amped.
03:44I don't know.
03:45But yeah, maybe their style of play isn't as explosive as what you find at Oregon.
03:50Although last year, they did well on those same stats I gave you, the explosives.
03:53They were pretty explosive.
03:54A lot of 20-yard runs, a lot of 30-yard passes.
03:57So we'll see.
03:58I think they still were saving something in the playbook for this big opener.
04:02Because they didn't have the other power four tests that Oregon had to go through.
04:06Of course, I know they're not very strong.
04:07But you had to get up for Oklahoma State.
04:09You had to get up for your Civil War game with Oregon State.
04:12Penn State, I mean, they're only three games in.
04:13They had Nova, FIU, and Nevada.
04:15I mean, they really could have played their backups and won those games.
04:18So we're going to learn a lot.
04:20Yeah, I'm going to side with Penn State at home and the travel spot with Oregon.
04:24But really just one of my top teams in the country, I think, with Penn State.
Comments