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00:00Football season is almost here upon us and people are still trying to make their bets.
00:04They want to know what the best bets are around the New York football Giants.
00:09So joining me today to talk about it is my guy, Curran Bhatia, the host of Axe to Experts with
00:14Curran Bhatia.
00:15Curran, what's going on, man? How you doing?
00:16What's going on, Dexter? Exciting time. I think we're all bummed summer is over.
00:22But we got NFL, right? It's an exciting time.
00:25And me as a suffering Jets fan, it's mixed emotions, but it's an exciting time.
00:32We got football, right? I mean, what else do you want?
00:33What else do you want? It's here. Let's go with the Giants, though.
00:36Let's go with them.
00:37Because the Giants, we saw this, they won four games last year.
00:40Giants fans did not like the fact that they won four games last year.
00:43Their over-under number, as we set the market here, is 7.5, Curran.
00:50How much of that 3.5 win jump is essentially a John Harbaugh tax?
00:56I'm going to say it is a tax. It is a John Harbaugh tax because Harbaugh, right?
01:02Look at what he did in Baltimore, okay?
01:04I'm going to read this to you.
01:05193 and 124, a Super Bowl ring, 12 playoff trips in 18 years,
01:10six division titles, four AFC title games, coach of the year in 2019.
01:15So I think that is certainly a Harbaugh tax.
01:18Let me actually rephrase that for you.
01:19It's not just a Harbaugh tax, a Harbaugh refund, right?
01:22Because you're getting something back here.
01:23I like that.
01:23You're getting something back here in that.
01:25And that is a quality coach who's had success
01:27and obviously is changing the whole dynamic of this team.
01:30And I think you can feel that with the energy going into this year.
01:33Of course, we know about Dart.
01:35We know about Scadaboo.
01:35We know about the cast of characters.
01:38But the biggest thing is this new coach
01:40and everything that he brings, right?
01:41The gravitas of a coach like that.
01:43The biggest question, of course, Dart year two, right?
01:47What are we going to get?
01:47Can he stay healthy?
01:50Neighbors, Scadaboo, right?
01:51We got a lot to talk about with the Giants.
01:52But I think with Harbaugh leading the charge,
01:55I think they're in good hands.
01:56So I think it is justified that a couple games,
02:00more than four, is very much justified.
02:03I like that.
02:03So the Harbaugh refund, not necessarily the Harbaugh tax.
02:06That's trademarked, by the way.
02:08Trademark that to current right here.
02:09That means that fans are going to have a bit of an expectation.
02:12So here's my thing.
02:13Let's play a little cash it or pass it here.
02:15Giants over seven and a half.
02:17Are you buying an immediate winning season?
02:21I'll call it a winning season push, people, under John Harbaugh.
02:24Are you buying that at all?
02:25Because that is what Vegas is sort of telling you here,
02:28that this is an immediate refund.
02:31Yes.
02:31Winning season push under Harbaugh with the number of seven and a half.
02:34Are you buying that?
02:35I am buying it.
02:35I'm going to cash it.
02:36I'm going to cash that number.
02:38The Giants just need to stop losing games that they could have won, right?
02:43And so that's really, really what it is.
02:45And I go back to Jackson Dart, right?
02:47That is the X factor, the health of Jackson Dart.
02:50We know that he was checked for a concussion five different times,
02:54you know, and he missed two games because of that.
02:57And so we know everyone is concerned about Dart in terms of his health.
03:01Now, I think if he can learn to slide a little bit more, right?
03:04That's been the advice.
03:05Maybe play it a little safer, but it doesn't seem like,
03:08even in preseason, he was in the blue chin.
03:09So it doesn't seem like that's the way he operates, right?
03:12He has that fearless mindset of moving forward.
03:14So the question is, when you play like that, you win and lose.
03:17He also scored a bunch of rushing touchdowns.
03:19He set the record there.
03:20So I think that's the big X factor.
03:23The schedule will help a little bit.
03:25We got Cowboys, Titans, Cardinals at home early.
03:27So it's possible that the Giants could get off to a big red-hot start.
03:31So we'll see what happens.
03:33So it's possible that if you are buying that,
03:35there are some people that may look at this and say,
03:36okay, if you like this, you're going to take the Giants over seven and a half.
03:39Why don't you just go, not all in, not all the way, but go a little bit deeper.
03:44Giants to make the playoffs, plus 255.
03:46Do you like that?
03:47Yeah, no, I don't.
03:48I don't like that.
03:49I'm going to take the over on the wins, but I'm not going to take the playoff ticket.
03:53I think there's two very big things there, right?
03:55So you're essentially saying over seven and a half games.
03:58Okay, so let's say we're going to give them that eight or nine win place.
04:01That doesn't necessarily mean a playoff appearance.
04:03In fact, it mostly means they're not going to be a playoff appearance.
04:05Remember, they share the division with the Eagles.
04:08So look, I think it's a time that Giants fans can be really,
04:11really excited about their team and the young players they have
04:14and now the coach that they have.
04:15And so I think the wins are possible,
04:17but I think this year you're looking for progress, right?
04:19You mentioned four wins last year.
04:21So you're looking for progress, and I think you'll get that,
04:24but I don't think we're stamping our ticket yet to the playoffs,
04:27Super Bowl, anything like that.
04:28Now, you also recognize this.
04:30There are some people that are going to look at the playoffs.
04:32They like the long shot odds.
04:33If you want to take maybe a better long shot odds, I'll say,
04:37with some better value, the Giants,
04:39they have the longest odds to win the NFC East at around plus 600.
04:44We've seen this around that in different sports books.
04:47Is that the better long shot bet than betting them to make the playoffs?
04:50Well, considering I'm not betting on the Giants to make the playoffs,
04:55I'm definitely not going to bet on them to win the division.
04:57Now, I think keep the money in your pocket on that one.
04:59I think save it on that one because, look, we're going back to Jackson Dart.
05:03Let's see what happens with the blue tent.
05:05Let's see in terms of how productive he is and how healthy he can be.
05:10I want to touch upon Scadaboo as well, the ankle injury coming back from that,
05:14the kind of backflip that didn't happen.
05:17And I think Giants fans all over are looking at that like,
05:19hey, what's going on here?
05:20So, look, I'm not going to pick them to go to the playoffs.
05:23I'm not going to pick them to win the division.
05:25I think the motto for this year for the Giants is progress over perfection.
05:29You're not trying to be perfect.
05:31You're trying to move the ball forward.
05:33You're trying to move up the rankings, get some more wins under your belt.
05:36So, I think it's going to be a good year in terms of where you compare it to last year.
05:40And you have a young QB.
05:42You have a first-time head coach.
05:43If you look at the Patriots, right, they had that same kind of model.
05:46They brought in the veteran coach.
05:48They had the QB, the young QB.
05:50So, I think there's potential there.
05:52And, of course, they made the Super Bowl.
05:53So, potential there, but I'm not going to pick them to make playoffs or division.
05:58All right.
05:58So, keeping that money in your pocket on that regard.
06:00I also want fans always interested in some player props and futures for players here.
06:06ESPN's Giants betting preview, they went with – you just talked about this person.
06:10Cam Scadaboo.
06:11A-plus rushing touchdowns.
06:13You can get that at plus 165.
06:15Are you buying that?
06:16I'm not buying it yet.
06:18And the reason for that, okay, I'm going to read you Scadaboo's injuries last year, okay?
06:23Dislocated ankle, broken tibia, ruptured deltoid ligament, emergency surgery.
06:28And then follow that up with two backflips in the offseason.
06:33One of them was at Fanatics Fest.
06:35I was there for that.
06:36And do you know what John Harbaugh said about this when he saw this?
06:39He said, dude, at least stick the landing, right?
06:41That's really it.
06:42I was there when Scadaboo did that.
06:44He said, oh, it was the floor was bouncing.
06:46Just don't do the backflips.
06:48Maybe not flip.
06:49Exactly, right?
06:50You know, so just maybe don't do that.
06:53Right now, it seems like Scadaboo, by his own admission, is 75%.
06:57So are you really going to put your money on a player that is, by his own admission, 75%?
07:02I think he'll have a good year.
07:04But the question is, can he stay healthy?
07:05Can the ankle stay healthy?
07:06So I am not going to put those props on Scadaboo.
07:09Fair questions there for Cam Scadaboo.
07:11Malik Neighbors.
07:12Yes.
07:1214-1 odds to win comeback player of the year.
07:15Do you like that bet, or do you look at that as just, hey, that's kind of a narrative bet
07:20that you're really trying to hope that maybe hits?
07:22I'm going to say that bet with Neighbors is kind of in between.
07:26It's not great.
07:27It's not bad.
07:27It's fine.
07:28But here's the thing.
07:29What usually happens for comeback player of the year?
07:32A lot of the times, it can be a quarterback.
07:33Well, Patrick Mahomes is going to be eligible for comeback player of the year.
07:36So that's someone I would look at.
07:37He's the favorite at plus 185.
07:39You could also see if Aaron Donald qualifies for that, right?
07:42Remember, he unretired after a few years away.
07:44So I think the real bet is somewhere else.
07:47Maybe Mahomes, maybe Donald, maybe somewhere else.
07:49The Neighbors bet 14-1, you're getting good odds.
07:52So if you want to sprinkle it a little bit, if you want to take a flyer, go for it.
07:56But I think there's other opportunities there for value.
07:58I can see that there.
07:59Now, some Giants fans, I know some of you guys out there, you're on board the Jackson Dart train
08:03and some of you are going to be hyped, maybe putting down some dollars for him to win MVP.
08:08Yes.
08:09Let's be realistic here, Curran.
08:10I wouldn't personally do that.
08:11But is there a future with Dart that you would actually want to bet, whether it be passing
08:17yards, passing touchdowns, something of that nature?
08:19Is there a future with him that you actually like?
08:21Yes, there is.
08:22Not MVP.
08:23And no offense to our fellow Jets fans and Jackson Dart and everything that he's looking
08:27to achieve this year.
08:28Here's the bet I'm going to take.
08:30Okay.
08:30Rushing touchdowns over.
08:32And the reason for that is he already set the single season rookie record for the Giants
08:37for touchdowns.
08:38He had nine last year.
08:39Remember, he was limited in the games he played, so nine rushing touchdowns is a great
08:43number.
08:43So whatever that line ends up being, let's say it's five and a half or whatever it is,
08:47I'm going to take the over.
08:48He's a mobile quarterback.
08:48We talked about that can get him into some trouble, make him land in the blue tent.
08:52But at the same time, that can also score touchdowns.
08:54And so the other part of it, too, is you look at Greg Roman, who came over from the Baltimore
08:59Ravens.
08:59He was a force behind Lamar Jackson, especially in that 2019 MVP year.
09:04So he knows how to work with a mobile quarterback.
09:06So that could also be an asset for Dart as he game plans what he's going to do this year.
09:11So in that way, I'm going to take the over on rushing touchdowns for Jackson Dart.
09:16All right.
09:16I like that.
09:17That's a pretty good over there.
09:18Now, I just want to talk for a little bit about some long shot tickets.
09:21We already hit on a couple, but I want to ask you, if I were to give you one that
09:25you
09:25had where you can put plus money on, right?
09:28You already said no to them winning the division.
09:30You said maybe you could see some value on them making the, you know, no to them making
09:34the play.
09:35Excuse me.
09:35Yes, they make the playoffs.
09:36No to them winning the division.
09:37No, no, no playoffs.
09:38No division.
09:39Yes, on the over.
09:40Yes, on the over.
09:41Yes, is where you were.
09:42That's where I landed.
09:42Yeah.
09:43But there's some other ones that you can look at, whether it's Harbaugh to win coach of
09:46the year, of a Reese to win defensive player of the year.
09:49We just talked about Malik Neighbors as comeback player of the year.
09:51Is there one where you'd be like, OK, I really like this as a long shot bet for the Giants?
09:56Voters love the resurrection story.
09:59And I think you're going to get that with John Harbaugh.
10:01So I am going to take John Harbaugh, coach of the year at plus 500.
10:06Six of the last 10 winners were first time coaches with that team.
10:10And so I think that trend will continue.
10:12Remember Harbaugh, we know he's already got the Super Bowl ring.
10:14He's already won coach of the year before.
10:16He's come into this new environment.
10:17So a lot of eyeballs, especially here in New York City, right?
10:20There's a few people who watch games here in New York City, as you know.
10:22And so I think that's the bet I'll take.
10:25Like, again, I'm not picking them to go to the playoffs or win the Super Bowl.
10:28But I do think Harbaugh is really going to turn this thing around, take them from four
10:31wins to, like I said, eight, nine wins, something like that.
10:34And so I think that is going to be a metric of success.
10:36And therefore, I think Harbaugh will win coach of the year.
10:38All right.
10:38There you go.
10:39Putting some money down on Harbaugh to win coach of the year as a long shot bet, too.
10:43Let's look at who the Giants got in week one.
10:44They are playing the Dallas Cowboys.
10:47Giants fans, you know, you're pumped up for that.
10:49Big game in week one.
10:51Sunday night football.
10:52Yep.
10:52We saw the line open Dallas favorite, one and a half point favorites here.
10:56But then we saw a move to two and a half, three on some sports books.
11:00What's the market telling us there?
11:01So here's what I'm going to say.
11:02I'm not going to say that that's sharp money on the Cowboys.
11:05I'm going to say that's America's team money.
11:07And what I mean by that is we know that the Cowboys fans, 8.8 percent of all NFL fans
11:14root for Dallas.
11:15That's that's that's actually a true stat.
11:17They're the most searched team in 15 states.
11:19OK, so people like to follow the Cowboys no matter where you are in America.
11:24And so because of that, of course, they have a rooting interest in this team.
11:27And of course, in week one, there's so much optimism going into the season.
11:31So therefore, I think that helps explain a little bit of what's going on with the Cowboys.
11:36It's also with the Cowboys.
11:38There's eight new defensive starters and a first year coordinator.
11:41So I'm not expecting gangbusters right off the jump.
11:43So I'm going to pick the Cowboys in week one.
11:46And I think that explains that that line movement that you're talking about there, Dexter.
11:50Speaking of another line, we got to look at the total line over under here.
11:53It's around 48 and a half.
11:55Now, this is interesting to me because you can go a couple of different ways.
11:59You can look at the over because you like the offensive talent in this game.
12:04Or you can look at the under because of teams in new systems, particularly with the Giants, too.
12:11Which way are you leaning when you look at the over under total for this matchup?
12:14Yeah, so I'm going to take the under.
12:16There's new coordinators on each side, right?
12:18We know about Nagy.
12:18We know Roman.
12:19There's new coordinators on each side.
12:20A year two quarterback, right, in Dart.
12:23We've talked extensively about him.
12:24We mentioned the backflip specialist in Cam Scadaboo that's going to be in this game.
12:28So we don't know exactly where he's going to be.
12:31I think the way it's going to play out is a tough game, a John Harbaugh type of game and
12:36a low scoring game.
12:38Maybe like a 2017 lower scoring than that total, I should say.
12:41And so because of that, I'm going to lean under 48 and a half on that game one, Dallas versus
12:48the Giants.
12:48All right.
12:48So under the 48 and a half point total there.
12:51We'll see how all that plays out.
12:53All right.
12:54Last thing we're going to do here.
12:54Listen, if you're going to come here and you're going to talk about bets, we've got to have you put
12:59your name on a couple of bets.
13:01And you've got to say it with your chest.
13:02All right.
13:03You've got to say it with your chest.
13:04So I want you to put your name on three Giants bets.
13:06I want to know what your best team future is, what the best player future is that you think, and
13:11then also what's your best week one bet for the New York Giants.
13:13All right.
13:14Here we go.
13:15So my card here.
13:17Best team future bet.
13:18I'm going to take the alt for over wins.
13:21That's eight and a half.
13:21So I'm going to take the I'm going to get plus money on that and I'm going to take the
13:24over on that.
13:25Right.
13:25So now, you know, like I mentioned, eight, nine.
13:27So let's let's say nine here.
13:28So nine win thesis here that helps Harbaugh get the coach of the year.
13:32It's a better payout than the regular over under at seven and a half.
13:35So you get a little bit more value there.
13:37I'm going to take that best player future.
13:39I'm not going to take a player.
13:39I'm going to take a coach.
13:40I already mentioned John Harbaugh coach of the year.
13:42I'm going to look at that.
13:43I also mentioned dart for the over for rushing touchdowns.
13:46That's something I'm going to look at.
13:47Depends where the line is set.
13:49I think five and a half maybe is where it'll be.
13:51He had nine last year and limited, limited run.
13:53So I think he's definitely going to get the over week one bet giants plus three.
13:59I'm going to take that and the under.
14:01So I'm going to do a little parlay there under 48 and a half, and I'm going to take the
14:04giants.
14:04And so that that's really what I'm looking at.
14:07I think in week one, if you want to, you know, sprinkle a little more, you want to gamble a
14:11little bit dart anytime touchdown score, right?
14:13He's he scored a touchdown in all but one game that he played last year.
14:16And so I'm going to take that in terms of rushing touchdown for Jackson dart in week one.
14:20So that's my, that's my card.
14:21That's good.
14:22You said it with your chest.
14:23You put your picks out there.
14:24Yes.
14:24Now people in the comments are going to let you know if you're wrong.
14:27They're going to come.
14:27If they do well, they'll be happy.
14:29If not, tune in next time and we'll, we'll do it better.
14:32Yeah.
14:32Next time you find out.
14:33But those are some of your best bets for the giants this season.
14:36Interesting.
14:37That plays out one.
14:38I liked from you, current.
14:38Yes, sir.
14:39I do like that alternate over.
14:41If the giants are going to be good and you think they're going to have a winning season,
14:44maybe you should bang that over eight and a half.
14:46That could be a good play for some of the people out there.
14:49That is current Bati of the host of acts to experts with current Bati.
14:52Check him out there.
14:54I'm Dexter Henry.
14:55We'll catch you next time.
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