00:00Is the Federal Reserve going to increase in September 2026?
00:05No.
00:06I mean, it's not just September.
00:08It will also be rate high.
00:11Yes.
00:12In the beginning of the year,
00:14the Fed will increase the rate high.
00:17The market will now 60% chance.
00:21This is not just assumptions.
00:23UBS, Julius Baer, Citigroup,
00:26such as the big banks have changed their forecasts.
00:30What has happened to you that the global banks are changing their forecasts?
00:35Who has changed data?
00:36What do you have to do with your money and portfolio?
00:40We will explain all of you in this video.
00:44Hello and welcome.
00:45I am watching Good Returns.
00:47I am with you.
00:48First of all,
00:50UBS has made a new forecast.
00:54UBS has added that he hopes to increase upward on the 7th September.
00:59He will see that he hopes that it will increase the rate of 2 decades.
01:04First of all,
01:05He will see the FOMC meeting in the 15-16 September meeting
01:07and the second of all,
01:08He will see the Dec 2016.
01:10Every day,
01:1125 basis points.
01:13So he will increase 0.25%.
01:15The 0.25%.
01:18Now his report is important.
01:20because it was the first time UBS had to think that there was no change in 2026 in the Fed
01:26rates.
01:28However, August's job report was so tight that they had to change their stance.
01:35If you look at the numbers of jobs data, you will see all this situation.
01:40August 2026, America had 1,62,000, while the expectation was just 55,000.
01:48Unemployment rate was still 4,1% of the expectations.
01:56Now, after March 2026, it was the most important monthly growth.
02:02Not only, but only July's data was revised.
02:06First, the data was 23,000, which was minus 23,000.
02:11Now, it was positive, 21,000 growth.
02:16This means that July plus August's net revision is 55,000.
02:22It was positive.
02:24Julius Bayer's Chief Economist, David Cole, said that this surprise is not just seasonal adjustment.
02:30After August 2026, the seasonal adjustment has 1,78,000 jobs.
02:36But in 2026, BLS was only just 8,000.
02:41Then, the number of 1,62,000, which means that the underlying trend is really important.
02:4655.6% of the industries had jobs.
02:50Especially in cyclical sectors, such as construction and manufacturing.
02:54Now, let's talk about Fed, especially Fed Chair Kevin Wash.
02:58He gave his first speech at Jackson Hole Symposium.
03:02He was very selfish.
03:04He was a clean source.
03:06He was a clean source.
03:19He was very wealthy.ется
03:19-or jobs report also showed the results After
03:22the market in September, the
03:24sales high, verding auspRO först, it was 50-50% as well as well as 60%
03:28CME Group's FedWatch Tool, September 2015, KFOMC meeting was 60% of 25 basis point high.
03:37This 3 September, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, was 50-50%, but the jobs report was 60%.
03:47Now, everyone is looking at the Agust CPI data on the 11th September.
03:51Why?
03:52Because in the past 5.5-5 years ago, the Fed is on the 2% target.
04:01And the Washington Post said that this is not a meaningful progress or an important movement.
04:07Julius Baer's call is that if the Agust CPI data leaves the energy, the Fed can keep the risk.
04:15But if CPI was surprised, the odds are higher.
04:22Also, in the Middle East, crude oil and crude oil levels are higher.
04:29The European Central Bank is the energy-driven market.
04:32The global bond yields can be higher.
04:36Now, let's talk about UBS.
04:38UBS's two scenarios.
04:40Because UBS's report has a little bit of impact on the global markets and economy.
04:46Because they believe that Fed's decision is balanced.
04:49But it's not a real question.
04:51If Fed will increase or not, it will increase.
04:54It will increase in which backdrops.
04:56So, it will increase in which backdrops.
04:59Now, which backdrops will increase in which backdrops?
05:10This year, the Fed will increase.
05:15This is a positive scenario.
05:17Because the AI investment, productivity and corporate profits will remain.
05:21Now, let's talk about this scenario.
05:23The policy test.
05:24If the Fed will increase and the growth will increase, the Fed will increase two times.
05:29But this is a negative scenario.
05:30In this scenario, consumers and companies will be affected.
05:33Now, if the job report data is the 162k jobs of 4.1% unemployment, AI lift-off scenario.
05:43But if the CPI data is more than the future, especially if the growth of more growth is more than
05:492,000,
05:49or is less than the overall growth of 4.2% of the business,
05:53to show 4.2% of this is a policy test scenario.
05:59Now the question is, what do you do for your money?
06:03UBS has given the advice. Where do you do the advice?
06:06That's why UBS has the suggestions.
06:09First of all, equity.
06:10If the growth of Fed and AI investment is increasing,
06:14then the risk of assets will be back-drop supportive.
06:17UBS, AI, power and resources and long-activity sectors are favouring.
06:22If you talk about bond, short-duration bonds are less attractive,
06:27but medium to long-duration, high-quality bonds have diversification.
06:31Especially if Fed's tightening, the expectations of the U.S.
06:35If you talk about the dollar, then the hawkish rate will support the dollar,
06:39especially if the growth remains.
06:41Now let's go to gold.
06:43Higher real rates and strong dollar is negative.
06:46But if the Fed is dangerous or geopolitical risk,
06:50then the gold will be in charge of the hedge.
06:53Look, Kevin Walsh's mantra is not referee.
06:56Don't look at the ball.
06:56If you don't lose the Feds,
06:58you won't lose the asset allocation.
06:59But if you don't lose the asset allocation,
07:01you can use the market volatility.
07:04If you don't lose the equity,
07:06then you'll lose the earnings.
07:08Medium-long-term duration bonds,
07:10the yields are attractive,
07:12gold is long-term hedge,
07:14and the dollar is excess holdings.
07:17If you don't lose the price of the wash,
07:19because the rate-high of the predictions are now
07:21and the probability is big.
07:23So, FOMO,
07:24not financial advisor.
07:27And please comment quickly,
07:28if you think the Fed will increase in September.
07:30This will increase.
07:33Bye.
