00:00The El Niño phenomenon is already here. And although it sounds like weather news,
00:04Its most concrete effects will not only be felt on the thermometer.
00:08They will also be felt in the electricity bill and in the market.
00:11First, energy.
00:12Colombia typically generates more than 60% of its electricity using water.
00:17hydroelectric plants that depend on sufficient rainfall to keep reservoirs full.
00:21The elder brings less rain. And less rain means less power generation from hydroelectric plants.
00:26When that happens, the system has to resort to plan B.
00:30Thermal power plants that burn gas and coal to produce electricity.
00:34The problem is that generating electricity with fuel costs more than generating electricity with water.
00:38In a normal year, thermal power plants provide between 12 and 15% of the country's energy.
00:43In recent months they have already been contributing between 30 and 35% and by the end of the year they could
00:49reach 50%.
00:50That translates into pressure on your bill.
00:53Experts estimate that in a strong El Niño scenario, the impact should not exceed 9% of the
00:59bill
00:59for most users, but there is a bigger risk that everyone wants to avoid.
01:04The blackout.
01:05The Colombian electrical system has not shut down for 34 years.
01:08But today he faces a combination of factors that put him to the test.
01:13Reservoirs under pressure, thermal power plants with financial problems due to unpaid debts
01:18and a demand that continues to grow at 6% annually, while supply is not keeping pace.
01:25The government has already announced 1.5 trillion pesos to resolve part of that financial crisis
01:30and the regulatory authority is preparing a savings program.
01:33Those who reduce their consumption will receive a discount of up to 40% on their bill.
01:39Those who increase their prices will pay more.
01:40The signal is clear.
01:42Saving energy today is not just an environmental gesture,
01:45It's a way to protect your wallet and help prevent the system from collapsing.
01:50Now, the food.
01:51Colombian agriculture depends on rainwater.
01:5472% of agriculture in the country is not irrigated.
01:57What falls from the sky is what feeds the crops.
02:01When El Niño reduces rainfall and raises temperatures,
02:04That dependence becomes a vulnerability.
02:07The most exposed crops are rice, bananas, plantains, and palm trees.
02:12Livestock farming too.
02:13Without rain there is no pasture, without pasture the cattle feed poorly
02:16and without livestock, well fed,
02:19They lower milk production and meat availability.
02:22The Bank of the Republic has already adjusted its projections.
02:25Inflation could end the year at 6.9%.
02:29driven largely by rising food prices.
02:32And there is an additional aggravating factor that few people know about: fertilizers.
02:36The conflict in the Middle East closed the Strait of Hormuz,
02:39key route for transporting fertilizers.
02:42Since the conflict began,
02:43The price of urine and other fertilizers has risen by more than 25%.
02:47And when supplies become more expensive,
02:50Producers are buying less,
02:52They produce less and market prices rise.
02:55But the picture isn't all bleak.
02:57For coffee, avocado, and some citrus fruits,
03:00A moderate case in a child could be favorable.
03:02Drier conditions help with flowering and reduce pests.
03:07And the livestock sector is reaching this point in good shape.
03:11But the underlying message is the same on both fronts.
03:14El Niño is not just a weather phenomenon,
03:16It's a phenomenon that affects your energy bill.
03:19to their market and their family basket.
03:21And the best way to deal with it is to know about it in advance.
03:32Thanks for watching the video.
