00:00It is. I was going to get to that in a moment. Last night, the vibe was a rodeo. I
00:03did not attend. I was coming in late.
00:06But Mike McKee was there with all of our production team, and they got a bit of the West with
00:12them.
00:12But I got the bow tie going just for Alexis.
00:15I mean, we are formal. And the question is, will it be a formal meeting?
00:19And, you know, I really don't know, Alexis. I think it's hugely up in the air what we will see
00:26at 10 a.m. tomorrow.
00:28I just think it's hugely, hugely up in the air.
00:31You see that in a Bloomberg editorial this morning where they're calling for a reset.
00:35You already see it in the body language of the assembled here.
00:39Mike McKee is really on top of that story.
00:41But the answer is tomorrow is a complete mystery.
00:46I thought maybe you'd go with the bow tie.
00:48Sarah in our control room said maybe he'll pull out the bow tie.
00:51But you went with your traditional bow tie.
00:53Had that out.
00:56Yeah, we had that out years ago.
00:58I mean, that was sort of like a Nashville look, but like we're going more traditional.
01:01But that dovetails with the spirit of what the Kansas City Fed does here is they want it to be
01:07very academic, very casual with the papers.
01:10More than any year I've been here, Paul, without question, this is a year where everyone's focused on the chairman's
01:17speech.
01:18As I guess they should be, Tom.
01:19We also have a Treasury secretary that's active in the markets buying bonds, trying to push interest rates down.
01:27I'll be interested to see what some of the academics, how they comment on that over the next couple of
01:31days out there.
01:33I spoke at length to Catherine Mann last night over Collegial Beverages.
01:37Of course, she's with the Bank of England.
01:39And, you know, it was a private conversation in that.
01:41But I kept circling back to the spirit of America, which is a ginormous nominal GDP, a nominal GDP, that
01:49top line inflation and real GDP statistic of five, six, dare I say, even seven percent.
01:56It is exceptionally unusual to see that.
02:00Smartest thing I've seen in the last 24 hours was, who do you think, Edward Yardini, saying where yields are
02:07right now is not a concern because they haven't buttressed up against this huge nominal GDP that we see.
02:15And, of course, we've got some great voices coming up.
02:17Richard Clarida, Adam Posen scheduled to be with us as well to talk about the oddities of a boom American
02:25economy.
02:26And yet so many people, including here in Wyoming, are flat on their back.
02:31How do you think that Warsh is really going to hone in and talk about what Bessent did last week?
02:36Or, I mean, does he sort of want to forget what Bessent did?
02:40No, I think it would be away from Bessent.
02:42I think that's highly likely there won't even be one sentence there.
02:45There won't be a Stan Druckenmiller-like note, as we saw a few days ago.
02:50The wish here, without question, among economists assembled, is that he tried to reframe, reset from that disastrous press conference.
02:59They give him credit for creating some mystery of taking the so-called forward guidance away.
03:05But they need to hear the Warsh vision on the dual mandate, inflation and jobs, and also how it dovetails
03:12into the financial system.
03:14I'm with Ethan Harris, the former lead at Bank of America and Lehman Brothers.
03:19Dr. Harris makes clear he feels it will be a nothing burger.
03:23Speaking of that, at lunch today at the Pioneer Grill, I will be having burgers.
03:28I was going to ask, have you had a steak yet?
03:30But I'm glad to see meat is on the menu for Tom Keene.
03:33Of course, always out there.
03:34Hey, Tom, the commissions, the various commissions that Fed Chairman Warsh has established here, do you think we'll get any
03:42color on any progress that those are making?
03:46Yeah, good point, Paul.
03:48Yeah, good, good point.
03:50There's got to be a paragraph of how excited he is over his so-called task forces.
03:55Everyone knows I'm not a big fan.
03:57I love David Ogilvie's comment that I'm paraphrasing, that there's no statues for committees in Central Park.
04:03You know, task force committees.
04:06I'm hearing some.
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