00:00Yeah, this would be, as the Times says, a seismic change. It would certainly be the biggest change that Kevin
00:05Warsh has contemplated or undertaken. We've seen some what seemed at the time big changes shortening quite a bit the
00:12Fed's post-meeting policy statement, and he has suggested that he could reduce the number of press conferences that he
00:18delivers after Fed decisions.
00:19But reducing the number of meetings would be a very large break with precedent, and I think certainly could potentially
00:28rattle markets and leave them, I suppose, guessing more about what the Fed is going to do next, which we
00:34saw this week. They don't really like not knowing where the Fed is heading.
00:39Yeah, I mean, is this a result of the meeting not going so well, or at least the interpretation? I
00:47mean, the timing is kind of interesting here, Kate.
00:50I mean, I really couldn't speculate. We obviously are asking all of our sources to help us confirm this. According
00:58to the report, Kevin Warsh brought it up at the meeting this week, and they reported he suggested this could
01:04be a decision that's made before their next gathering in September.
01:08That would be surprising, a decision that consequential to be made that quickly. In other areas, when Warsh was asked
01:15or has been asked about potential changes, he's kind of signaled that he's going to leave a lot of the
01:20discussion on these bigger questions up to the five task forces that he's assembled to look at different areas of
01:26how the Fed conducts policy.
01:27So I don't know, but it would certainly seem to be a very quick decision if it was made before
01:34the next Fed meeting.
01:34Kate, would it make the Fed less nimble to react quickly? Because they can just do emergency rate moves. We've
01:42seen that in recent history. They don't have to meet to do this.
01:45That's true. Yeah. I mean, I think they would probably argue that it doesn't. Anytime they need to respond to
01:50changes in the economy in between their meetings, they can hold emergency meetings, and they've done that.
01:57That's a really good point. I mean, I do remember when we used to get surprise moves. I think about
02:00that, and it sounds like, oh, remember the days.
02:02I mean, it wasn't even that long ago. During COVID, we got it.
02:05That's true. But I mean, and it really would have an impact on the markets, right? And I do feel
02:10like, I mean, I wonder what's next. Does he limit the Fed members from speaking? Because they speak a lot.
02:17Like, if you want to limit communication, or is that a useful tool in kind of getting some of the
02:22message out or differing points of views?
02:25Sure. The communications piece of it, there has been a really big question. We talked to a lot of people,
02:30because Warsh, of course, had made these comments and floated these ideas even before he was confirmed as the chairman.
02:35And, you know, most people seem to agree or believe that you can't really restrict other policymakers from getting out
02:43there and speaking.
02:43So I think that, you know, we expect that they will continue to. Now, it seems like there's been a
02:49little bit, it's been a little bit quiet lately. That does tend to happen in the summertime.
02:52So it's a little early to tell whether there has been any kind of influence. I mean, there could be
02:56a little bit of a grace period or deferring a bit for some of them to the new chairman.
03:01But I don't think, we would be very surprised if we saw a big change in, as you say, maybe
03:06the number of public remarks from other officials.
03:09Things change. Things change.
03:11Well, it raises the question, too, about communicating, because communication happens a lot of different ways.
03:19One of the ways is when Fed speakers are out there and they're allowed to speak and they're all able
03:25to say really whatever they want to the press and to give press conferences or to give speeches, rather, do
03:31interviews.
03:32The other the other part of it has to do when the Fed chair actually speaks.
03:36And that's certainly when everybody tunes in at the same time.
03:39So there's no you know, it's not really I think people could argue, well, the members of the Fed will
03:45still be able to communicate, would still be able to communicate, even if there were fewer press conferences and they
03:50met fewer times.
03:52Sure, sure. And and if those members wanted to give guidance on where they see the economy headed and where
03:59they see interest rates headed, they could certainly do that, even if if Kevin Warsh couldn't.
04:04So it's hard to know.
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