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00:03Hello, welcome to Copper Independent, the independence football podcast. I'm Lawrence
00:07Osler and I'm joined by Chief Football Writer Miguel Delaney. Hello. And Senior Football
00:12Correspondent Richard Jolly. Hello. And we are talking about a big football topic every week.
00:17This week we are talking about the transfer window. We will get on to Villa and Newcastle's
00:23big sales where the FFP rules are to blame for them having to shift their best players this
00:29summer. And we're also going to talk about some of the new signings and what might happen
00:33in the final few days of the transfer window. But first, Miguel, we're going to start talking
00:37about the extraordinary high prices we've seen this summer, particularly in the Premier
00:43League. I've just been having a look at top 10 transfer fees of the summer, seven of them
00:49from the Premier League or players going to the Premier League, three Tottenham, one Chelsea,
00:53one Arsenal and one Man United. And you've got Real Madrid, Barcelona and AC Milan in the top
00:5810 there as well. 14 of the top 20 transfers this summer have been Premier League players.
01:03There's more to come. It looks like Nicholas Jackson is going to go to Aston Villa for a
01:07big fee, which I'm sure you'll discuss. Liam DeLapp is moving to Forest as well, potentially
01:12from Chelsea. The total spend in Europe this summer is pushing close to record numbers.
01:19So it was 6.7 billion last summer, already topped 5 billion and heading towards that record
01:257 billion figure, perhaps by the end of the transfer window. And some of the figures have
01:30been crazy. Miguel, I mean, Savinho is one that jumps out, Tonali, Rodgers. Talk to us
01:36about why clubs are spending so much money this summer.
01:40Well, every transfer window basically has a distinctive theme, be it kind of some massive
01:46broadcasting deal or whatever that shapes it, as has been the case of the Premier League
01:49for well over a decade. The pursuit of a certain type of player, like a striker, last summer.
01:55But this window in particular, look, I don't think I've ever seen one so shaped by the Premier
02:02League's power. Obviously, that's been the case for every other domestic league for some
02:07time, related to that broadcast deal. With this summer, it feels like the financial power
02:13in the Premier League, or really kind of the Premier League's economic strength, has led to
02:16this situation where it's this kind of, it's just pushed prices up so much. To the point
02:22an executive was complaining to me yesterday that 100 million is the new baseline. That's
02:27sort of become your standard player, which is remarkable. You mentioned two players there
02:31are probably illustrative of that. I mean, Savinho, good a player as he might be, what he did
02:38in between signing for Spurs and joining City and the kind of what was it, like the low number
02:43of goals, low number of assists, and also relatively low appearances, to be fair. But how does that
02:47justify this price? Similar with De Lapp, who went to Chelsea for 30 million last summer. Now, okay,
02:54that was a bit conditioned by a clause. But for his price to go up after what was, in pure
02:58performance terms, a poor season in the Premier League. And it does say something, I think,
03:03about a market that's, we're obviously going to get into the kind of financial rules a little
03:08bit, and especially the kind of complaints of Villa and Newcastle, which, not to say they don't
03:12have some points, but I think are misplaced. And for all the talk about controls, it feels
03:17like there's so much money in the Premier League now that it's just kind of creating this constant
03:23updraft. And also the fact that teams are, in terms of kind of the cash flow and the money
03:29coming in from broadcasting, they themselves are wealthy. But that also just means so much
03:34money just goes straight out on wages and this constant need for growth and evolution.
03:38I mean, that is what a football team is about, of course, that it just, it's having this
03:42effect of constantly pushing up prices and constantly pushing up player wages with very
03:47little restraint. And of course, I mean, the idea of, like, this is the thing, it's all
03:52the kind of more curious where, we've spoken about this in previous podcasts, written about
03:56it, most of the owners of the Premier League, especially the US-based owners, essentially
04:01US capitalists, are always complaining. You know, in American sports, we sit down around
04:07the table, we basically kind of, we come together and figure out how much money we're going to
04:09make. In the Premier League, they come to these meetings and it kind of, it ends up
04:12being how much they're going to lose because so much goes out. But they could come to collective
04:17agreements on transfers. But because there's almost kind of this game theory situation where
04:23they're just all in kind of just constant competition, all looking towards the individual
04:28short term, especially those clubs in the bottom half, it just creates this constant cycle
04:33that's just pushing figures up and up and up. And then you get into this situation where
04:37there's this constant pressure for teams to do deals. And suddenly where it's almost kind
04:43of, it can be a bit counterproductive, where in order to stay within the rules, which have
04:46been updated, something we'll get onto, they have to make transfers, sometimes for non-football
04:52decisions or sell players before they'd want to. And hence, it is a particularly strange
04:57market this year. I think the last week is going to be frenetic. There's going to be
05:02a lot of business and a lot, sorry, a lot of negotiation, a lot of offers. But I don't
05:08think that necessarily leads to completed business in a lot of cases, which is something that Rich
05:13has wanted to touch on in terms of a potentially frustrated window.
05:16Yeah, it just feels as though a lot of clubs have spent a lot of money and yet very few
05:22of
05:22them are completely satisfied. Very few of them have got everything they want yet. You
05:26can look at Liverpool and say, they haven't replaced Mohamed Salah yet. You can look at
05:30Manchester United and say, yes, they've just brought in Carlos Beliba, but they didn't
05:34do it before the start of the season. You know, they lost the first game with a new
05:39midfield. Aston Villa, obviously that rebuilding job is only halfway done. Tottenham managed
05:45to spend a lot of money, start the season with effectively a B team forward line. And you
05:50can go on and on and there's a whole bunch of teams who be thinking, not really happy with
05:54it so far. And then you look at the number and the number they've spent will be very
05:58high. And in a few cases, like Aston Villa, like Newcastle, the number they've brought
06:02in will also be very high. It's just this bizarre thing where the more everyone spends,
06:06the less satisfied everyone is.
06:08Just as you were speaking there, Rich, I was thinking how actually odd it is now or how
06:14much of an outlier it is for that kind of classic thing in terms of transfer building.
06:18And look, some of this is related to the sheer size of the squads now. But it's not like
06:22you see teams really even kind of forensically put in that final piece, even in the like
06:25as recently as five, six years ago, with Liverpool getting Van Dijk and Alisson. Or say, like
06:31going back much further, various Alex Ferguson signings. Because like, I suppose the demands
06:37are much greater, to be fair, so they have to build deeper squads. But it also just feels
06:40like there's just, there's just this constant movement. And it's not quite for the sake of
06:46it. It's more because of the current parameters of rules, of what you need to do with your
06:52squads, of kind of various changing situations. That has just meant, as Rich has put there,
06:59is constant rotation of players and a constant need to kind of keep it going. Like I was thinking,
07:04there's become a very different art, I think, to squad building in this sort of context.
07:08And if you look at the Cross Premier League, as Rich has touched on there, who probably has
07:12their squad closest to how they want it? Well, it's probably just Arsenal, who are probably
07:16one player away from what they want. And that's, that's Julian Alvarez.
07:19Maybe Bia Brentford comes to mind as well, maybe.
07:21Yeah, yeah, yeah.
07:22And they're that club, you said, you know, that club who maybe go and just buy that extra
07:26piece that they need, particularly when they have to sell. But you're right. And I also,
07:30I was just thinking then how many of those big clubs also, it feels like they are quite unprepared
07:36for this summer. You talk about Van Dijk or Alisson, and there's a clear task to
07:41finish the puzzle for those big clubs often. And now it feels like particularly City, it's
07:47like they weren't ready for Rodri to leave. They weren't ready for a lot of these players
07:51to suddenly depart. Whether that's because they spend so much time thinking about replacing
07:56Guardiola, it feels like that's happening across the Premier League now, where teams are
08:00only really Arsenal. And perhaps you could say Manchester United are calmly rebuilding at
08:06the very top and top end, whether maybe not successfully in Manchester United's case.
08:10But it feels like there's a...
08:11No, no. Can I make a point there quickly on Manchester United? I think some of the big
08:16clubs, even the biggest ones, have been caught out by the massive inflation in fees. Because
08:22you look at the midfield, Manchester United have bought three players for a guarantee of
08:27£148 million, could go up a bit in add-ons in Belieber, Santos and Tielemans. Go back
08:33a few months, Manchester United were looking at players like Elias Anderson and Matthias
08:37Fernandes. And Aurelien Chouamedi, who hasn't moved. When Elliot Anderson's price goes to
08:42£116 million, United can't bid. When Matthias Fernandes goes to £85 million, United can't
08:48bid. I do think Tottenham have almost tried to blow opponents out the water, having missed
08:53out on players in the past like Ebereche, Eze and Brian Mbuemo. But this is an issue for
08:59Liverpool as well. They probably started off their window thinking, we've got a nice budget
09:03for a winger to replace Mohamed Salah here. Diamande, we know they wanted, he ends up
09:09at Real Madrid. Bradley Barkler, I think one of the things that happened there was that
09:13PSG looked at Premier League prices, thought other Premier League clubs are paying crazy
09:19money, thought Liverpool have paid crazy money for Alexander Isak. So why put a price of £70
09:26million on Bradley Barkler when you could ask for £140 and see if you get it?
09:31Just on that one, Richard, play maybe devil's advocate slightly. It was put to me by someone
09:35in football that United are almost going to as close to a money ball approach as they
09:39can. They've basically kind of restructured the midfield for around £150 million, which
09:45relative to other prices is low. Each of those midfielders, maybe outside Beliba, even actually
09:50Beliba given his form this season, come with a small element of risk given the different
09:55role. Like Tielemann's a lovely footballer, do they need more mobility, etc. Where do you stand
10:00on that?
10:01Yeah, I asked Michael Carrick about it and he did say he thought they got value for money,
10:07which obviously to a certain extent he would say, but when you look at some of the prices
10:10and Tielemann's of course was a release clause, which Aston Villa may regret that that release
10:15clause was set at that amount. On the other hand, you can look at it and say, well, they
10:19signed him on a free transfer. They got £35 million for him when he's 29. Financially, that's
10:24still a very good deal. I think the danger with United is if they end up with what is deemed
10:30a second-rate midfield compared to some of the others. You know, Andre Santos was Chelsea's
10:35third-choice central midfielder last year, way behind Caicedo and Fernandes. Carlos Beliba
10:40had a very good season in 2024-25, not such a good one last year. He's clearly got talent
10:46and potential, but the most admired central midfielders who've moved this summer, by and
10:53large, were the ones who didn't end up at United. And you could say maybe they would have never got
10:57Bruno Guimaraes anyway because he would have wanted to join the champions. But the danger is
11:03United have spent £150 million and not got a great midfield. Last year, they spent £200 million
11:08and I don't think they got a great forward line. They got three players who all got 10, 11, 12
11:13Premier League goals, which was decent, so none of them are failures. But on the other hand,
11:19they're not real, genuine, high-class players and that's the danger. They've spent all this money
11:24and still the only real world-class player in the squad is Bruno Fernandes. But I feel that
11:29little bit at Spurs as well. Don't get me wrong, the signings they've made, they've improved the
11:34level of the team. And obviously, some of this is going to be dictated by if they get back into
11:39the
11:39Champions League, you could say it's relatively justified. I mean, there's a bit of kind of like
11:44there's almost a binary element to some of these transfer windows in that sense. Although, as you
11:48see them at Liverpool, one window can have longer-term effects. But given the money that Spurs have
11:54felt, it doesn't feel like, it doesn't feel that the upgrade is, it reflects the huge amount of cash
12:01that's gone out with potential for even more to come. Yeah, I mean, I look at the Spurs prices and
12:06I think
12:07the four players they've bought so far, they've arguably paid at least £20 million over the odds
12:12for all four. Now, in the case of Van Hecker, there is obviously the complicating factor that
12:17Luka Vuscovic goes to Brighton and you can argue whether or not those two prices are pegged to each
12:22other. In the case of Fernandes and Tonali, I think they were trying to take other teams out of the
12:27equation and I really like Tonali as a player. In the case of Savinia, that price is simply crazy.
12:33They are bidding against themselves for a man who scored two Premier League goals.
12:38And I've seen quite a lot of Savinia's Manchester City career. He arrived when he was young,
12:44there was obvious promise there, obvious talent there, and you think he's a work in progress.
12:49His first year, I would say, was reasonably encouraging. His second year was awful. He
12:54played well about twice. There were times when Guardiola picked him when he really shouldn't
12:59have done. If you look at Guardiola's last ever Champions League tie, he goes away to the
13:04Bernabeu, picks Savinia, has to take him off at half-time. They're 3-0 down and the tie is almost
13:10over. So, and one of the things with Manchester City spending, and maybe we'll never get an answer
13:16to this, is would they have bought Antoine Semenya if Savinia and Mamouche had been good in the first
13:23half of last season? That's Savinia price. That's just off the charts, as far as I'm concerned.
13:28Just on Savinia, I mean, he, so he moved, he joined two years ago from Troy, which was City's
13:33sister club. So we don't, it's maybe not a totally fair fee, £20 million.
13:39It was £30 million, which I agree at the time, you're saying, is that low? And in this first season,
13:45you think, yeah, maybe it's a bit low. But on the other hand, as I say, he scored two Premier
13:49League
13:49goals. And it's worth remembering, a year after that, Manchester City got Ryan Cherky for the same
13:54price. Now, ask any City fan which one they think is better out of Savinia and Cherky. But even if
14:00you'd said Savinia's market value two years ago was not £30 million, but £40 million, how is it now
14:07£75 million basic, with a guaranteed £5 million add-ons, and then a potential of five more on top of
14:13that? Just on the market being inflated, I had a look back at the last few seasons, and this £100
14:19million figure, Miguel, that you mentioned being almost standard now for a player. I mean,
14:23there was a summer 23-24 season, beginning of 23-24 season, when you had Guardiol go to City,
14:33Kane go to Bayern Munich, Caicedo go to Chelsea, Rice go to Arsenal, all of that kind of 100 million,
14:38more euros, that kind of figure. But obviously, when I list those players, particularly obviously
14:44Kane, Caicedo and Rice, you're talking about two of the best midfielders in Europe, the best,
14:49forward in Europe. Whereas now, I think that what's different, the £100 million fee now,
14:54is getting you a completely different and arguably much lower quality of player. Now,
14:59we'll see what happens with Rodgers and Elliot Anderson. They're very talented players,
15:02and they may become top midfielders in Europe. But I wouldn't necessarily put Tonali and Fernandes
15:09in that bracket yet, Savino either. And even Anderson and Rodgers aren't there yet. So it feels like you're
15:14buying almost more potential than proven quality. And Bellingham obviously was in that kind of
15:19bracket as well, that sort of fee.
15:21Well, I mean, Rice also was like, he was seen as one of those final piece players. It took him
15:26another
15:26two years to do it, to be fair, or three years. Well, Rice was one of the most important players
15:30in that, well, if not the most important player in that Arsenal team. So, I mean, look, all of these
15:35things are relative. At all prices, you could say, ridiculous. But in that sort of market,
15:39just over 100 million for Rice, that seems very fair, because you are buying, you're buying
15:45basically a guarantee. And as you say there, in a lot of these cases now, 100 million basically
15:49isn't getting you a guarantee. And look, you touched on Bellingham there. Some of this has
15:54been shaped, I suppose, by the Madrid approach as well. What Madrid did was they realised they
16:01couldn't quite dominate the market in the way they used to against the big Premier League
16:05clubs, the wealthiest Premier League clubs. So they switched. Hence, they'd give huge wages
16:10to players on free contracts. And there's been a few of those. And that's how they'd get
16:13players on their prime. But they'd target younger players by basically paying the highest fees,
16:18but giving them kind of structured contracts that would start low and grow. And hence, that's
16:23basically what's happened with Vinicius. Whereas with the Premier League, I mean, it's both
16:29big fees. And at the moment, competitive wages. I mean, this is the other side to all
16:35this, that when you look at the wage bills of Premier League clubs, or if you look at the
16:40annual Deloitte football money list, this is one of the things that feeds in to the Premier
16:45League, what it is now is a quote unquote product. But what was it? Wolves are one of the kind
16:50of
16:50top 30 wealthiest clubs in the world. Yeah, I've actually got it. Yeah, I've got it open here. And
16:55West Ham, a 20th in the 2026 Deloitte money league, which is pretty crazy, really.
17:01Yeah, and all of that is obviously completely driven by broadcast money. Like what, you'd
17:07say 80 to 90% driven by the broadcast money, the deal going back to 2013. It creates kind
17:12of a self-perpetuating thing. And now the money also kind of, I suppose, in and of itself,
17:18perpetuates that because the more money the broadcasting, it's what basically Silvio
17:23Berlusconi at Milan used to refer to the virtuous cycle. The broadcasting money comes in, you pay
17:28for better players, the broadcasting money grows, etc, etc. But the Premier League almost
17:33looks like it's that kind of another unseen stage of that cycle. And I do wonder how much
17:39of that is connected to the fact that it is just this bubble unto itself. Well, maybe it's
17:43not a bubble, because I don't think it's going to, it doesn't feel like it's going to burst
17:45anytime soon, at least in terms of its global popularity. It's got such an advantage. But
17:50I have to say, I have felt like this isn't a new point, but I'm still being struck by it
17:54so often this summer. Imagine you said to someone in the mid-90s, let alone as recently
18:00as the mid-2000s, that Brentford or Bournemouth would have more financial power than AC Milan.
18:08That mid-rank of Premier League sides, particularly the ones like Villa and Newcastle were pushing
18:15against the glass ceiling and now having to sell a lot of their players. Perhaps that's
18:19the other big storyline from this summer, Miguel. I guess the big question is why? Why
18:24have Aston Villa had to sell and are continuing to sell? It seems like Watkins may also go,
18:29I mean, Martinez may also go. Selling their key players, the core of their team. Newcastle
18:34have been similar, obviously. Anthony Gordon being the biggest name, but also Tonali leaving
18:39this summer. Bruno Gimoresh as well, we've discussed. Are they being forced, as a lot of
18:44their fans will say on social media, by the squad cost ratio rules, which is the new version
18:49of FFP and Premier League? Or is this something else? Is this about player power and players
18:55who just want the opportunity to go to bigger clubs and therefore are able to force their
19:01move?
19:02Well, obviously, so many of the complaints are connected to the old system, PSOR. And that
19:07has changed and the belief in the Premier League is that the SOR allows more ambition, more
19:13flexibility. And essentially, as someone in football put it to me, it's got to work out
19:17better for either the existing wealthy clubs or clubs with wealthy owners, i.e. those who
19:21want to spend. And Villa and Newcastle obviously want to spend. And look, there are a few interconnected
19:27things here. Villa last summer, we saw the sanction they got from UEFA. They've had to sell
19:35the various points. Newcastle haven't. Anyway, it's the same degree. In fact, it's commonly
19:41seen that one of the reasons Eddie Howe ultimately left is because basically, you know, his team
19:45was going. But a lot of those major players basically wanted to go because of that old
19:52thing in football. Well, they felt they could win more and earn more elsewhere at wealthier
19:57clubs, or at least clubs with bigger income of their own, bigger self-generating revenue.
20:03But I suppose Newcastle and Villa fans would argue that will of those players, that desire
20:09to leave, is directly connected to the fact they can't themselves grow. I mean, I've got
20:15a lot of thoughts on this. Before I go on a spiel, I wonder, is it there? It's better to
20:19bring on Rich's views on it. I can empathise with Villa and Newcastle's complaints. I just
20:26think the entire argument is completely misdirected.
20:29Yeah, I think it's interesting. There's some different elements to this because Villa and
20:33Newcastle were in similar positions and they pursued different strategies. Villa had the
20:37higher wage bill, but Villa had this constant churn of players. Whereas, as Miguel said, Newcastle
20:43didn't want to sell anyway. They kept Eddie Howe's best team together. In the process, they
20:49had to sacrifice Elliot Anderson and Yankuba Minter. I really think they didn't want to lose
20:54Anderson in particular, but they had to, to avoid the deductions. And they will say that,
20:59you know, there was a limit being put on ambition in that respect. Of the two clubs, in terms
21:06of the strategy they adopted, I have a lot more sympathy for Newcastle in one way, because
21:13when we talk about team building and buying, nearly every signing Eddie Howe made for a long
21:18time succeeded, nearly every player improved. And you think, well, this, if you ignore the
21:23element of the Saudi Arabian ownership for a minute, if you, this is actually what we
21:27should want to see. Villa have always had this weird element where Unai Emery is a brilliant
21:33manager who has done a brilliant job. And yet he has done a brilliant job with people signed
21:38by Dean Smith, Steve Bruce and Steven Gerrard. And a lot of the signings Emery has made have
21:43come and gone. They had this one incredible success in Rodgers. But you look at the team
21:48that started the Europa League final, seven players bought by previous managers, two free
21:53transfers in Tielemans and Lindelof. So only two players that Emery had actually signed with
21:59transfer fees to begin with. And you do wonder where all the others sort of went to. So there's
22:05a lot of weirdness and idiosyncrasies to this Villa project, which I think, again, I can
22:10go into at greater length later on, but means that they've actually been in quite a different
22:16position to Newcastle. Villa have, I think they have constantly been up against the rules.
22:22And that's one of the reasons why there's been some of that churn of players every year.
22:27But there's also been an underlying weirdness of lots of people coming and going and having
22:32no impact whatsoever.
22:33To defend Newcastle and Villa in this particular situation, the new rules are now, so the squad
22:39cost ratio rules that have come in this system are pegged to clubs' revenues. And both of
22:44those clubs have significant revenues in the grand scheme of things. They're both in the
22:47top 20 in Europe for revenue. But looking at Deloitte's money list, they are, so I've
22:53got the figures here. Villa's revenue was 450 million euros. Newcastle's was around 400
22:58million euros. So similar. Tottenham's in the top 10, they were at 672 million euros. And
23:05then you go up to the big Liverpool City, Arsenal, United were all up at 800 million euros.
23:08So the big four clubs in terms of revenue in the Premier League are double the revenue
23:14of Newcastle and Villa. If you then peg your outgoings, your spendings, your transfer fees
23:19and your wages to those revenues, there's just absolutely no way that they can ever compete.
23:23How can they ever break into that exclusive club?
23:25But that's precisely why the issue isn't the rules, it's the revenues. Or more so, football
23:32has to look at more creative ways to, A, kind of lessen the... Well, the revenue gaps weren't
23:36as great 20 years ago. The Champions League has actually been a massive driver of this
23:41issue. The Champions League itself, it's been an engine for the big clubs. And hence you
23:44have the situation where basically, you know, the expanded Champions League does feel like
23:48a bit of a kind of a Super League by stealth. That's something that has to be looked at.
23:52There's all sorts of things like the draft of players, for want of a better phrase, or
23:55rather, what we're talking about is the distribution of quality, where the money or, by extension,
24:00the players go. And, like, that's why one of the best rules in European football history
24:05that was sadly short-lived, for all sorts of reasons, was actually the foreign player
24:09rule. Because, A, I'm obviously talking about the one that was around from 1989 to, or maybe
24:15better than 1990, 1991, to the introduction of the Bosman rule in 1995, where any club competing
24:21in Europe could only have three foreign players and two assimilated players, plus players like
24:25who'd been in a country for a long time, so kind of moved to that. Dennis Irwin was one
24:28of them. But what that did immediately was, it just forced a greater distribution of players,
24:34because if the biggest clubs couldn't just hoover up squads of any nationality, it just
24:39ensured players stayed at certain clubs for longer. Obviously, the best talents were going
24:44to be picked up anyway. But there wasn't the same flurry to the market. Now, look, I know
24:50MEPs are currently looking at this, and considering the potential effects in as far as there is
24:55focus on football at European Union level. But there is this kind of current debate over
24:59whether the Bosman rule and aspects of European law actually serve sport in terms of competition,
25:04because it does look like a lot of this, as Villa and Newcastle fans are arguing, is anti-competitive.
25:10And I wonder, if you can't apply the old foreign player rule according to EU law and freedom of
25:17movement and all that, you can't work it another way, where, say, every first XI has to have three
25:21homegrown players. It changes the dynamic of the market. The money you have isn't as relevant. And
25:25also, you're building players that forges more of a connection to the community.
25:28Yeah, I mean, that's one thing that I think is really missing now from the modern game. And
25:33Jack Grealish is such a good example of that, where he could have been Villa's captain over the past
25:37few years, lifted the European trophy for them. And obviously he's gone on and done some very good
25:42things for City and some less good things in the last season or so. But a player like that, I
25:46think
25:47of Calvin Phillips as well. He's just, he was leads through and through and his career's just sort of
25:51petered out. He's someone who I probably 20, 30 years ago would be a one club player and become a
25:57legend. And then you do forge those bonds with fans. And I feel like that's really missing now,
26:03particularly with the high churn, like you say. I guess just one thing on Villa Newcastle,
26:07last thing. And it's not just that they can't spend though, is it? It's that they're actually
26:10actively having to sell their best players. Is there anything that a club can do to stop that
26:16now? If they want, if they go into the summer and say, well, actually, we want to keep
26:20Juri Tillemans and Oli Watkins and we want to keep our best players. Is there anything they can do now?
26:26It seems like they're powerless to stop this kind of destruction of the core of a team,
26:33of a very good team. Well, I disagree with some of that and say there's definitely things they can
26:39do. But also, if you look at the players who are leaving these clubs, well, some of them are leaving.
26:44In Newcastle's case, some of them are almost leaving because they got too good. Bruno Guimaraes
26:48wants to join Arsenal and Arsenal want him. Anthony Gordon wants to join Barcelona and Barcelona want him.
26:53And they've sold three players in the last two summers to the reigning champions, if you include
26:58Izak. You can also say, though, that in the context of clubs where they have a lot of players,
27:04they can actually try selling someone else. You know, there is, you look at these squads and in
27:10theory, there's all this equity in the squad. This player's worth 20 million, that player's worth 30
27:14million. Sometimes clubs are really good at bringing that money in. I mean, for a long time, Liverpool were,
27:21they haven't done it so much this year. For a long time, Manchester City were, Chelsea have brought
27:24in a lot of money for these fringe players. To look at Villa specifically, they didn't want to sell
27:31Uri Tielemans. He had a release clause. But that's the case regardless when people have release clauses.
27:37Morgan Rodgers, it always looked like he would go, but they got an absolutely incredible price.
27:42Oli Watkins, if they sell Oli Watkins, it's nothing to do with squad cost ratio, because they've turned
27:48down some bids from Al-Hilal. It's because he wants to go to Saudi Arabia for the money there.
27:54You look at some of the other examples, Emi Martinez. They wanted Emi Martinez to be sold
27:59to such an extent that they bought a replacement without yet selling Martinez. They're tired of the
28:04drama of the man. But there is actually another point with Villa, which in a way is a shame, but
28:11the high point in a way had to be the end point because it was an aging team. And that
28:17doesn't mean
28:18they're all going to be over the hill on September the 1st. But within a year or two, they couldn't
28:23have a situation where they still had all of McGinn and Mings and Konza and Watkins and
28:29Dinia and Tielemans and Cash and Lindelof. There's the warning from Manchester City a couple
28:34of years ago of what happens when you let a team grow old and suddenly you've got massive
28:40problems.
28:40There's one thing I would say. It's not like all of this is new. Obviously, kind of the rules have
28:45kind of countered it, but like one of the most amazing clips and actually in British, in English
28:51football history is the dearly departed late great Kevin Hegan. God rest him. Like arguing on the
28:59steps of St. James' Park with Newcastle fans furious that he'd sold Andy Cole to Manchester United.
29:07OK, we've got five or six days of the transfer window left as we record this. Still plenty of
29:12moves to happen, I imagine, particularly clubs like City, Liverpool, Villa, rebuilding half of
29:18their squad, it feels like. Rich, you were at Newcastle, Liverpool, 2-2 draw at St. James' Park.
29:24What did you make of both teams' new looks?
29:27Yeah, they're both incomplete, shall we say, but I thought there was some promise from both
29:32sides. Jeremy Jacquet, whose signing was arranged in January, but who hadn't been seen at Liverpool
29:37since then and wasn't seen for much of pre-season because of injury, he was really impressive.
29:42He's absolutely massive, which is particularly useful when Iriola wants his centre-backs to
29:48be able to defend one-on-one, to have a big bloke who is quick, but also who can come
29:53out
29:53of defence with the ball. And Liverpool have always felt, despite his youth, he is being
29:58signed for now. He's not just being signed to be good in two or three years. So I thought
30:02that was really encouraging. Victor Munoz came off the bench and won the late penalty,
30:07and it was noticeable, firstly, how quick he is, but also he came off the bench on the
30:12right, which is the position they still haven't filled, to replace Mohamed Salah. So that was
30:17quite encouraging. Newcastle actually really liked Amar Dedic, the right-back, who was only
30:23brought in last week, so it was only a few days after his arrival, but who is a player
30:27known to Matthias Geisler before, played for him at Red Bull Salzburg. Also in midfield,
30:33there was Sean Stoyer from Ajax, who's only 18. Showed quite a bit of personality, which
30:37I thought boded well. Newcastle have been looking after Brunner Guimaraes went for a more experienced
30:44midfielder, which they will get with Nico Gonzalez. But they had this really young midfield of Stoyer
30:49and Luis Miley, and it did show that there is actually talent there. Nico Gonzalez is only 24
30:56and a half, and he'll be the oldest one they signed. But they kind of had to bring in someone
31:01a bit more experienced after one 18-year-olds and three 20-year-olds. But there were some early
31:06signs that they found some talented players, regardless of how the strategy will play out.
31:11One theme from this transfer window is, I've read quite often clubs prioritising Premier League
31:18proven talent. And actually, all of the players you mentioned there, Rich, I think just going
31:22through them at Newcastle and Liverpool, are players who've come from outside of the Premier
31:27League, and it sounds like hit the ground running in several of those cases. I just wonder whether
31:31you guys think there's a little bit of a premium put on this idea of the Premier League proven
31:36player, which perhaps explains the price of a Rodgers and Elliot Anderson and others to Nali.
31:42Do you think clubs overvalue the trait of having played and proven themselves in the Premier League?
31:48Is it almost a slightly kind of arrogant viewpoint that you have to have done it in our league in
31:54order to succeed in our league?
31:56No, I was going to say, in general, yes. But you do, on the other hand, get some examples of
32:01players
32:01who come in, like when Manchester City signed Semenya and Gwehi, you know, Premier League ready,
32:06they looked absolutely perfect cases of it. Newcastle, on the other hand, last year, there
32:11was the argument with Johan Wiss's Premier League ready. He scored 19 Premier League goals for
32:15Brentford last season. He had a terrible first year there. And actually, it was only at the start
32:20of his second season that, yeah, he looked really good. But yeah, I think it's a bit of a mix,
32:26is the short answer.
32:27And there's two ways of looking at it as well. So one, and one that clubs like Manchester United
32:31have been obsessed with for two years. And one that actually, to be fair, I would say City
32:35and to slightly lesser extent Liverpool actually really maximised about five, six years ago,
32:42was this whole concept of, hang on, Brighton, and well, it was mostly Brighton at that point,
32:48now it's Brentford. Brighton and Brentford are getting in these players that they're identifying
32:52this talent that they instead sell on for 50 to 100 million. Can we not use the same approach
32:57to get those players earlier? But a fundamental issue then is, it's not just about talent,
33:03it's also about whether a player is psychologically ready. And there is, and there is a huge jump
33:07from going from, at this point, financially weaker leagues and by extension, lower quadrant
33:13leagues in the Premier League to then having to do it, not just in the Premier League, but
33:16having to do it at one of the clubs. And like Man Utd are a massive example of that, given
33:21like just to do, they can swallow a good player up.
33:23That was, I mean, that was the, one of the talking points probably from the weekend was
33:26Mamadou Sangari and how he was so impressive for Brentford. And you're thinking to yourself,
33:31well, why is, why haven't a Man Utd or another major club gone in for him and bought him for
33:37what was it? 35 million. But perhaps you're right. Does, does a player like Sangari actually
33:42benefit and almost need to have that season or two at a Brentford, at a Brighton, where
33:48the little bit of the spotlight is slightly less harsh? They can afford to make one or two mistakes.
33:53Say, Balaba, for example, can afford to have a, perhaps a poor season at Brighton and kind
33:57of get away with it in a sense, as you discussed earlier, Rich. Maybe do they need that season
34:02in a, in a sort of slightly smaller club, quote unquote?
34:07They can do. I mean, certainly with Liverpool, a lot of the Liverpool strategy, there was a
34:12quote from Jurgen Klopp about three years ago where he said, and I'm slightly paraphrasing
34:17paraphrasing him here, our owners like players who are 23 with 200 games. So you've got that
34:23sample size. They're used to the rigors of first team football. They're tested in some
34:28cases, like someone like Alexis McAllister, they're tested in the Premier League. In some
34:32of the other cases, they might be tested by playing for sort of a Porto or Benfica. So,
34:37you know, a Red Bull Leipzig, something like that. You could argue one of the ways Chelsea
34:42went wrong was that they thought we'll sign these incredibly talented 19 year olds, but
34:48yes, they've got talent. But if you put them in the wrong club where there's 800 players
34:52and where they don't improve, some of them just become 22 year olds who were talented
34:57at 19 and have spent three years going out on loan. Now, clearly that's not the Newcastle
35:02strategy in that these 18 and 20 year olds they're buying, they're not going to park them
35:06at the back of the squad with 58 other players ahead of them. They are going to be involved,
35:11involved. But there is that stepping stone argument, I think, not just Sangari at Brentford,
35:16but the midfielder Coventry have signed. He played for Ghana in the World Cup. He's seen
35:20as another one who might, you know, in a year's time, make that jump up to a bigger club.
35:25And that bigger club will have had the sample size of watching them play every week for Coventry
35:30or Brentford.
35:31The other game you were at, Rich, was Hull v Man United this weekend, a double header for
35:35you in the North East-ish. Hull played very, very well and beat Man United. I mean,
35:41should United fans be a little bit worried? They've obviously gone and bought Balaba. Does
35:45he solve some of the issues that you might have seen in that game?
35:48I think he'll bring a bit more mobility. I would hope he'd be first choice ahead of
35:52Andre Santos, who I said earlier I'm a bit dubious about. The damning thing for Manchester United's
35:57new £83 million midfield was that they were the best midfielder on the pitch was a Hull
36:02player who cost £50,000 in Regan Slater. And Matt Crooks, the other Hull central midfielder,
36:08said, we must be the cheapest midfield pair in the Premier League. So that wasn't a great
36:13start for the United new double axe.
36:16Tielemans, the issue, I think, the thing that probably put people off him in the past was
36:20mobility. In fairness, the year he was player of the year at Villa, 2024-25, he was outstanding
36:26and he was fitter than he ever has been before. His World Cup stats were incredible for ground
36:30coverage. He was right at the top of the stats there.
36:33Exactly. So once you get him moving, the quality is there. The thing I would wonder about with
36:38Tielemans is that he's not a number six and Cobby Minor isn't a number six. So does that mean they
36:44can
36:44only play without each other? So I'm a bit unsure about this United midfield rebuild. Just quickly,
36:51I like the Hull goalkeeper, Konstantin Tynos Saladis. I mean, he made a couple of good saves,
36:56but even above that, he just looked a really reassuring presence. I just thought if you were
37:01a defender, you'd be confident if he was behind you.
37:03Well, I actually thought that was one of the most striking things of the game. Oh, well,
37:07beyond the fact that Manchester United spent a lot of the match firing crosses up for a long time
37:13when they didn't have a forward. And then Cesco, they suddenly seemed to change the approach.
37:17But regardless of the scenario, he was extremely comfortable coming for the ball.
37:23Given this is a first game in the famous Premier League and the notion of the talk last season
37:30about meat walls and the physicality on goalkeepers, he really didn't look like he had an issue.
37:36What do we think makes the final few days of the window then? What are you expecting
37:40some of the biggest moves to look out for?
37:43I think it'll be chaotic with constant updates in the sense that I think clubs are going to try
37:51and do a lot of business. And I think the final day could be mayhem.
37:56Because again, with so much of this, I've lost track of the amount of times that people in football
38:02have said to me, well, at the moment, the transfer market is like a housing market.
38:06There's a chain element in that. And this is linked to the rules.
38:09One deal needs to happen for another to happen.
38:11And I suppose there's even been an element of this with the ongoing saga this week
38:15where Newcastle have paid City for Nico Gonzalez.
38:19City are now more bolstered to finally bring in Buadi and Enzo Fernandes.
38:24That could lead to Chelsea going for Alex Scott, which could lead to Bournemouth doing business.
38:29But also, from what I've heard from the EFL as well say,
38:32a lot of Premier League clubs, they're not being clear on what loans are available yet
38:37because essentially they've got so much business to do themselves
38:40and don't know which players they're going to need.
38:42So I think we're going to see this cascade go right up until the close of the window of Tuesday.
38:47I think, as Rich has already touched on, I think we're going to see a lot of frustrated clubs.
38:54And clubs at O'Field, they still have to do a lot of business in January.
38:58Liverpool are one of them.
39:00We touched on them a little bit earlier, Rich, and you talked about the issue of maybe a right winger.
39:07We talked about Bradley Barkler earlier, Miguel.
39:09I mean, what do we expect from Liverpool?
39:11Will we see one, maybe two signings?
39:13And it feels, certainly from that first game, like they've got quite a bit to repair.
39:18Yeah.
39:19I mean, so I've done a piece for the Independents in another video.
39:22Liverpool somewhere does feel, for a team that for years, like City,
39:26and look, City as well have their own issues and how many signings haven't worked out.
39:31But for a team that had been so forensic, or a club that had been so forensic,
39:36it does feel Liverpool are kind of facing this unusually frenetic and frantic last week
39:42where, like, someone described their situation to me as like,
39:45it's as if they're in a boat with six leagues, but they don't know which to prioritise first.
39:49If you prioritise one, it just leaves you with a leak in another area.
39:52Would that actually compounded by the problem?
39:55Well, not the problem, but Iriola's football essentially demands backup in every single position
40:00because it's so intense.
40:02And if you overuse certain players, that will inevitably lead to injury.
40:06So what do they prioritise?
40:07I think it could be a situation where, like, this is me speculating,
40:11where they're casting around what is the potential best deal in each area.
40:15I mean, I'm curious what you think, Rich, there.
40:16Some people I know have been surprised that they are going to devote so much of the budget
40:21to Bradley Barkler if that deal gets done,
40:24given they would feel that actually, for all they need a replacement to Salah,
40:28you can reshape the attack, whereas in other areas they're just thin.
40:32To be honest, the budget is basically devoted to wingers as it stands.
40:37I mean, if they'd managed to get in Barkler or Diamandie or someone else earlier in the window,
40:43they might have then been able to say,
40:43yeah, there's a bit left over, let's go and do something else.
40:47The Jeremy Jacquet sailing, as I said, arranged in January,
40:49so that's part of the summer budget.
40:51But after that, the budget is just all wingers.
40:53And in a way, getting Ronald Rao on loan was almost a stroke of luck.
40:57It meant they didn't have to pay for another defender.
41:00When it was obvious with the injuries of Joe Gomez and Connor Bradley,
41:03they were short at the back.
41:04But Miguel's right about the six leagues.
41:07I mean, they've got a lot stored up to do next summer already.
41:12I don't think anyone can be particularly convinced by the two fullbacks who started at Newcastle.
41:17You'd want a defensive midfielder.
41:19There's a whole load of other issues.
41:21But yeah, it's wingers, wingers, wingers.
41:23And, you know, Curtis Jones has gone, for instance,
41:26and there isn't really any anticipation at the moment.
41:29They'll impress.
41:30They'll replace him this window, in part because Trey Neone's done quite well,
41:34in part because, as I say, just the money has to go on wide men.
41:38We're obviously speaking about prices at the top of the programme.
41:41But this is another aspect.
41:42Like, the PSG are, they're Qatari-owned, they're the champions of Europe.
41:47They have become this revenue machine.
41:49They're financially secure.
41:51But even they, they see a Premier League club coming and thinking, right,
41:55I've had executives tell me, like foreign clubs,
41:58when a Premier League comes in, if there's one Premier League comes in,
42:00the price goes up 20%.
42:02If two come in, it's doubled.
42:03Because you can generate a bit of a race.
42:05And like that, from what I was told at Arsenal,
42:08they obviously considered Barca at the start of the summer.
42:10I reported that at the start of the World Cup
42:12on the day of England and Croatia, actually,
42:14which feels a long time ago.
42:16But Arsenal basically put off a little bit like Morgan Rodgers, actually,
42:19because they thought, well, given the situation we're in,
42:21we don't need the players that badly to pay what we think is 30 million
42:24over the odds for their actual quality.
42:26And I suppose, like, just on Liverpool,
42:28I think this is all the more relevant,
42:29because they are the last two champions.
42:31It is amazing the way Arsenal, to be fair to them,
42:34have kind of got into a situation where they are kind of,
42:37they can just kind of tick away at their squad now.
42:38They've got it in a good place, mostly as they wanted.
42:40And obviously, a left forward or Alvarez would complete what they want.
42:45Whereas Liverpool, who, what, three, four years ago,
42:47were in pretty much a similar situation,
42:49given the team that Klopp had fashioned.
42:52Like, their squad just feels, it feels illogical now, almost.
42:55Like, it's got different bits in different areas,
42:58or, like, different areas are far stronger than others,
43:02with, like, the front line being the most obvious.
43:05The one reason I think Barclay might get done
43:08is that PSG have actually already signed his replacement.
43:11They've signed three forwards this window.
43:13They've signed Ferran Torres.
43:14They've signed Aklayouche.
43:16They've signed the guy from Ajax.
43:17So, in the end, I think they might bring the price down.
43:21But it feels that Liverpool are in the same situation
43:23they're in at the end of last window,
43:26where they're playing this game of brinkmanship.
43:27And they failed on it twice at the end of last window,
43:31last summer, because they missed out on Mark Gwahi
43:33by having just sat there for weeks doing nothing.
43:36And they failed because they ended up signing Alexander Izak.
43:40They should have just left him at Newcastle.
43:43OK, before we go, I'll fire out a few suggestions
43:47you guys can tell me whether you think
43:48these might happen before the deadline.
43:50Let's start with Julian Alvarez to Arsenal.
43:53There's been a lot of talk about that this summer.
43:55It's obviously been a very public fallout
43:56with Barcelona's interest
43:59to take the Atletico Madrid player
44:01and Arsenal trying to swoop.
44:02Miguel, you wrote about that this morning.
44:05I'm 50-50 on this.
44:07My gut probably just says,
44:09no, but I wonder am I conditioned by the Vinicius deal.
44:12People are getting increasingly,
44:14if very incrementally, optimistic about it
44:17as regards him going to Arsenal.
44:18But it still feels there might be too much to do.
44:21Atletico is at a Friday deadline.
44:23OK.
44:24Enzo Fernandes to Man City, Rich.
44:26Do you see that one happening
44:28now that they have sold Nico Gonzalez?
44:31Yeah, I think it probably will.
44:33I think it probably shouldn't.
44:35Again, I'd just say leave him at Chelsea,
44:37let him stew, sign someone else.
44:39But yeah, I think that might happen.
44:41OK.
44:41Man United seem pretty settled after Belaber,
44:44but a lot of fans would like to see a left-back come in.
44:46Do you see that happening?
44:48There's a little bit of talk about Lewis Hall at Newcastle.
44:50Newcastle have been adamant that that won't happen.
44:52They won't sell him.
44:53It doesn't feel like they necessarily need to or want to.
44:56So do you see that happening?
44:57They don't have the money for Lewis Hall at all.
45:00So if they get a left-back, it won't be him.
45:02OK.
45:02Yeah, they've been looking at Balde and Salinas as well.
45:05I think they might wait for Lewis Hall for a future win, though.
45:10OK.
45:11Final one I'll throw at you.
45:12Cody Gakpo.
45:13There's been a little bit of talk about him leaving.
45:15Liverpool potentially going to Tottenham.
45:17Again, feels like Liverpool could do with retaining him,
45:20given the state of their squad.
45:22Injury to Eketike at the moment.
45:24Do you see Cody Gakpo leaving Liverpool before the deadline?
45:27They can only let him leave if they get two forwards in,
45:30and one of those forwards would have to be able to play centre-forward as well as winger.
45:34So when you put all those things together, it feels unlikely to me.
45:39Yeah, I don't think so.
45:41I think Liverpool end up with actually three coming in and one going out.
45:45But, I mean, I'm not sure who goes out, actually.
45:48Also, in terms of Liverpool spending, we talked about squad cost ratios.
45:53I know Tottenham's, you know, they've got Jay-Z selling out concerts
45:57and they've got a lot of revenues coming in.
45:59But surely they can't afford to be spending this much money on Tonali and Savio and Marmouche and Gakpo.
46:06And we'll see what the numbers say at the end of the season.
46:09And it's now season by season, isn't it, rather than every three years.
46:12So we'll know in March, I think, which clubs are at risk of breaching the rules.
46:18But they've already spent an absolute fortune.
46:21Yeah, there is talk of one more forward as well.
46:23That's been kind of doing the rounds.
46:24Like, there's been a little bit of noise about Aussie men,
46:26although nothing concrete enough yet to actually kind of report.
46:31I wonder, it's a remarkable summer, really.
46:34I mean, what must Daniel Levy be thinking?
46:38It's maybe noticeable that the Marmouche deal is a loan with an obligation to buy.
46:42So the money will be going out next year.
46:45They've basically put Omar Marmouche on the credit card.
46:48Yeah, OK.
46:49And you've still allowed, what is it, five years of amortisation on these deals as well.
46:54So I guess some of them, yeah, will be sort of spread out over the long term
46:58and they will hope to qualify for the Champions League and pay them off, I suppose.
47:01Well, certainly there's a massive pressure to get into the Champions League.
47:03It's the case.
47:04Yeah.
47:05It's similar to Chelsea.
47:07OK.
47:07All right, we will leave it there.
47:09It's been good to speak and we'll catch up just after the transfer deadline falls next week.
47:14I'm sure you guys will be very tired of up to all those small hours.
47:18Although there's always the deal sheet, isn't there?
47:20Yeah, yeah, yeah.
47:20The famed deal sheet.
47:23All right, very good.
47:24I remember staying up to, was it Danny Drinkwater and I was doing the transfer live book?
47:28Oh, that was summer of 2017.
47:31I was in Malta for an England game.
47:33Oh, were you?
47:33I was doing it on the Guardians transfer live blog and I was up till about 3 a.m.
47:38just waiting for Chelsea to confirm Danny Drinkwater.
47:41Didn't work out too well.
47:43That was not a great summer for Chelsea.
47:45No, absolutely not.
47:47All right, very good.
47:48Good to speak to you and we will catch up next time.
47:50Thanks, Rich.
47:51Thanks, Miguel.
47:51Thank you to producer Jamie MacDonald as ever.
47:54This is an independent podcast network production and we will be back next time.
48:00Thank you for listening.
48:01Bye-bye.
48:07I'll see you next time.
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