00:21मृर्गन स्टानली को लेकर अपना फोर का सेजी से बढ़ाया है
00:27Banking and U.S.R. Middle East is the supply recovery,
00:29is the hope of the inventory.
00:30Inventories are gone and oil market,
00:33the deficit is the same as Q4-2026 and Q1-2027.
00:38This is why Morgan Stanley has Q4-2026
00:42and Brent crude has 100 dollars to reach the barrel.
00:46Now, the forecast has been so big.
00:51Q3-2026 for the first Brent price is 75 dollars,
00:54which is 90 dollars for the first Brent price.
00:57Q4-2026 for the last Brent price is 75 dollars,
01:01which is 100 dollars for the second Brent price,
01:03Q1-2027 for the first Brent price is 75 dollars,
01:07which is 95 dollars to reach the price.
01:09Q2-2027 for the first Brent price is 75 dollars,
01:12which is $90 for the first Brent price.
01:15There was no one quarter.
01:17Morgan Stanley had 4 quarters for the next Brent price.
01:20This is why the bank is just temporary price spike.
01:26The supply tightness is seen as well.
01:30Now, the big question is why the oil supply recovery is going on.
01:35First of all, Middle East exports.
01:37Morgan Stanley has a number that Middle East supply recovery is now in 2027.
01:42The market is expected that the disrupted supply is going on.
01:47But exports and shipping flows are not going on.
01:51The second risk is straight-of-home.
01:53U.S. Iran Peace Talks is going on.
01:56The oil shipments are going on.
01:59This route is global oil supply.
02:01If this disruption is going on,
02:05the global oil prices are going on.
02:08The third risk is oil on water.
02:45Oil on water means,
02:47जब floating और onshore दोनों inventories एक साथ घटती है तो market में available cushion कम हो जाता है। अब
02:53इसका सीधा असर oil market के deficit पर पड़ता है।
02:56Morgan Stanley के अनुशार oil market Q4 2026 में deficit में रह सकता है। Q1 2027 में भी supply demand
03:04से कम रह सकती है और middle yeast supply recovery 2027 तक चलने के कारण market tightness जल्दी खत नहीं
03:10होगी।
03:11If this is the situation, the traders will rebuild the market for higher prices.
03:17But here is the question.
03:19This is the question.
03:19The forecast is the assumptions of the trade of hormones,
03:23the shipping, the Middle East exports and the global oil demand.
03:27This is the question.
03:28The crude oil is the refined diesel or gas oil market.
03:32Ice gas oil is the price of 175 dollars per barrel,
03:36when Brent crude is the price of 92 dollars per barrel,
03:39the gas oil crack spread is the price of 75 dollars per barrel.
03:43Crack spread means that crude oil is refined,
03:46and under the product and crude oil is the price of the product.
03:49In other words, this is the refinery profitability.
03:53The price of 75 dollars per barrel is high,
03:56and the diesel and middle distillate products can be very good.
04:02Now, the high gas oil crack spread is three major points.
04:051. Refineries diesel can be increased.
04:082. Transport, Logistics, Agricultural and Industrial users can be increased.
04:153. Diesel can be increased.
04:194. Core goods inflation and core goods can be increased.
04:22However, it can be a low crack spread.
04:245. Demand destruction can be increased.
04:295. Refineries run rate can be increased.
04:316. Alternative supply can be increased.
04:336. Alternative supply can be increased.
04:346. Alternative supply can be increased.
04:357. Brent is 100 dollars per barrel.
04:377. Diesel crack spread is higher.
04:398. It can be increased.
04:409. Energy stocks can be increased.
04:429. Airlines fuel costs can be increased.
04:449. Trucking and logistics companies can be increased.
04:479. Chemicals, paints, tires and packaging companies can be increased.
04:529. Diesel can be increased.
04:5310. Food and other commodities can be increased.
04:5710. Central banks can be increased.
04:5810. Inflation can be increased.
05:0110. Inflation can be increased.
05:0910. Inflation can be increased.
05:2710. Oil Lance to increase.
05:2910. Oil for any retail fuel prices for sale,
05:31many products can also be increased.
05:3410. If you are above a major업 Coす costs have.
05:3710. aviation companies have increased.
05:419. Chocolate for Estado for needs
05:4410. Straight fee drows can be increased.
05:52Logistic companies for operating costs, diesel, and diesel companies can be able to grow.
05:56Fertilizer companies for natural gas and energy costs can be added to renewable energy.
06:02For the investment of energy, the investment of energy can be able to support.
06:05But in the United States, the biggest risk will be when crude and crude oil companies will be lower.
06:11Brents will come and UST and INR will be lower.
06:15So, domestic fuel, freight, and imported raw materials will be more pressure will be higher.
06:20So, what is Morgan Stanley's $100 Brent Forecast?
06:24This is not a forecast, guaranteed price target.
06:28Some of the prices can be lower.
06:32If the shipping is very low, the supply pressure will be lower.
06:37If the US-Iran talks will be lower, the geopolitical premium will be lower.
06:42If the middle-ease supply will recover quickly, the market tightness will be lower.
06:47If the global economic growth is lower, the oil demand will be lower.
06:52The high prices will be lower.
06:53The demand destruction will be lower.
06:55The US-shale production or other non-OPEC supply will be lower.
06:59If China and other imports will be lower, the prices will be lower.
07:05In the report, the high prices and supply chain destruction will be lower.
07:15If the price is worse, the price will be lower.
07:23This is not going to be a physical supply deficient.
07:26This can be a supported level.
07:29In India, it means that Imported Inflation, Rupee, and fuel-sensitive sectors will be a margin risk.
07:35Do you know what to say? In the comment section, we will see all the updates of the share market.
07:43Good Returns!
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