South Korea's military is facing a serious troop shortage, with numbers dropping dramatically over the years. How is the Army coping? Will AI and drones fill the gap? Dive into this video for the real story behind the numbers, the controversies, and the future of defense! Don't forget to subscribe for more insightful content and comment what surprised you the most! #military #technology #AI #SouthKorea #defense
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0:00 - Current Troop Shortage Overview
0:35 - Military Reorganization Due to Declining Numbers
1:04 - Controversial Conscription Policies
1:53 - Rising Selection Rates and Personnel Concerns
2:51 - Mid-Level Leader Discharges and Impact
4:06 - Future Size of South and North Korean Militaries
5:19 - Military Strength, Strategy, and Defense Challenges
6:58 - Role of AI and Unmanned Systems
👉 This channel was created in collaboration with https://www.youtube.com/@센서스튜디오
0:00 - Current Troop Shortage Overview
0:35 - Military Reorganization Due to Declining Numbers
1:04 - Controversial Conscription Policies
1:53 - Rising Selection Rates and Personnel Concerns
2:51 - Mid-Level Leader Discharges and Impact
4:06 - Future Size of South and North Korean Militaries
5:19 - Military Strength, Strategy, and Defense Challenges
6:58 - Role of AI and Unmanned Systems
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NewsTranscript
00:00Currently, the armed forces are facing a troop shortage. Over the past 7 years, the number of
00:03troops has decreased by 110,000. This means that the minimum required number of 500,000 troops
00:07is not being met, and the current number has dropped to 450,000. In 2019, there were 563,000
00:12troops, but now that number has decreased to 450,000. That's a decrease of 113,000 troops.
00:17In particular, the army has seen a significant reduction. In 2019, the army had 429,000 troops,
00:22but now that number has dropped to 324,000. If we look only at army soldiers, the number has
00:26decreased from 303,000 to 205,000, a reduction of nearly 100,000. Due to the low birth rate,
00:32several divisions have simply disappeared. This is how severe the troop shortage is.
00:35So the military decided to merge and reorganize divisions.
00:38In 2006, South Korea had a total of 59 divisions, but now that number has dropped to 41. Just last
00:42November, the 28th division, also known as the Typhoon Division, was disbanded. The military says
00:46the reduction in troops is due to the continuous decrease in available manpower caused by the
00:49declining population. They believe that various factors, such as a decline in preference for
00:52career military roles due to improved treatment of enlisted soldiers, have played a role. The military
00:56also announced that they will continue to review various measures to prepare for a declining
00:58population, such as expanding the use of civilian personnel in non-combat areas and making long-term
01:02use of officers and non-commissioned officers. In this situation, the remarks made by the head of
01:06the Military Manpower Administration are causing a lot of controversy. Hong So Young, the head of the
01:09Military Manpower Administration, announced stricter conscription standards to secure more male
01:12military personnel in response to the decrease in standing forces. The measures include raising the
01:16exemption age for those who have stayed abroad for a long time to 43 and expanding the conscription
01:19targets to include naturalized citizens, North Korean defectors, and more men in general. At the same time,
01:23controversy is growing as he reiterated his position that the introduction of conscription for women
01:27will not be considered. The Military Manpower Administration is planning to raise the age
01:30for exemption from mandatory enlistment to 43 by 2026, and is also reviewing policies regarding
01:35about a thousand naturalized or North Korean defector men each year. And they are also planning
01:38to tighten the criteria for exempting people with mental health issues so that more of them can be
01:42sent to active duty. As someone who has served in the military myself, I have a lot I want to
01:46say about
01:46this. Anyway, the Military Manpower Administration is trying to solve the current severe manpower shortage
01:50by bringing more men into the military. As I mentioned earlier, the number of troops is
01:54decreasing significantly. But what's even more noteworthy is that even after taking measures
01:57to increase the active duty selection rate, they still couldn't prevent the manpower shortage.
02:01The active duty selection rate rose from 69.8% to 86.7%, an increase of 16.9 percentage points.
02:06This was a measure to secure enlistment numbers by increasing the proportion of those classified as
02:10active duty among those subject to military service. But as the number of young people taking the
02:13military service examination itself fell in the first place, the effectiveness was limited.
02:16No matter how much the rate of those classified as active duty increases, if the population subject
02:20to examination continues to decrease, the absolute number of people entering the military will
02:23inevitably continue to decline. What's even more concerning is that a similar trend is appearing
02:27not only among soldiers, but also among the career military personnel responsible for the military's
02:31expertise. The selection rate for career military personnel, which was about 90 in 2019,
02:36has dropped to about 50 in 2024. This means that the military is not able to recruit enough
02:40personnel as planned. It's already difficult to secure enough soldiers, and if we can't secure enough
02:44officers and non-commissioned officers as well, it could become even more burdensome to maintain
02:47the specialized personnel needed for unit operations, training, and equipment management.
02:51But the problems currently occurring in the military are not limited to just the decrease in new
02:54personnel. The number of mid-level leaders who are already serving and choosing to leave the
02:57military is also rapidly increasing. In 2021, 960 mid-level leaders applied for voluntary discharge,
03:03but that number rose to 1301 in 2022, 1495 in 2023, and reached 1821 in 2024. By September 2025,
03:19the increase in the number of people taking leave is also something to pay attention to. In 2021,
03:232,252 people were on leave, but that number continued to rise to 2,612 in 2022, 3,068 in
03:292023,
03:29and 3,412 in 2024. By September 2025, it had already been recorded that 3,401 people had taken leave.
03:35In addition, since the number of non-commissioned officers, officers, and new recruits is also
03:38decreasing, the military is seeing a structure where incoming personnel are decreasing while the
03:41departure of existing personnel is increasing. In particular, mid-level leaders are personnel
03:45who have accumulated experience in unit operations, equipment management, personnel and training,
03:49and operational procedures while serving in the military for a certain period of time.
03:53They are truly like the backbone of the military. Even if their positions are filled with new
03:56junior leaders, it is difficult to immediately achieve the same level of proficiency. Therefore,
04:00the current issue of recruiting career military personnel can affect not only the overall number of
04:03troops, but also the military's proficiency and command structure. The decrease in population is not only
04:07reducing the number of soldiers, but also affecting the ability to secure the specialized personnel
04:11needed to maintain the military. This makes the situation even more serious. Looking ahead,
04:15the outlook is even more concerning. If the current population structure and conscription system of the
04:18armed forces continue, it is expected that the total number of soldiers will decrease to 290,000
04:23in 2030, 260,000 in 2035, and as low as 150,000 by 2040. In particular, it is estimated that
04:30the number of
04:30new recruits entering the military in 2040 will be around 100,000. As the number of people joining the military
04:35will
04:35decrease significantly compared to now, it will inevitably become more difficult to maintain the
04:39current force structure. The problem is that Korea is not the only country experiencing a population
04:42decline. North Korea is also affected by a decline in birth rates, but if we look at the current size
04:46of
04:46North Korea's military and its service system, the manpower gap between South and North Korea is likely
04:49to persist for quite some time. Based on data from the National Statistical Office, if we assume that the
04:53conscription rate in 2022 and 2040 remains the same, the size of the North Korean military in 2040 is
04:57estimated to be about 1.13 million. On the other hand, it is projected that at the same point in
05:01time,
05:01South Korea's total military strength could decrease to about 270,000 with around 150,000
05:05soldiers and about 120,000 officers and non-commissioned officers. If this happens,
05:09the total military strength of North and South Korea will differ by about 4 to 1. Even now,
05:13the North Korean military has a much larger force than the South Korean military, and if the
05:16population structure continues in the current direction, that gap could widen even further.
05:21Especially in a situation where the number of army troops is greatly reduced, it can become more
05:24difficult to deploy the necessary forces and secure reserve troops in the border areas. If a small
05:27number of troops are responsible for a large area, there may not be enough personnel to redeploy when units
05:30need support or reinforcements. What's important here is that you can't judge the outcome of a war
05:34based solely on the number of troops. The South Korean military has strengths over the North
05:37Korean military in areas such as Air Force and Navy precision strike capabilities,
05:40surveillance and reconnaissance systems, information and communications technology,
05:43and defense industry capabilities. Therefore, it's not appropriate to compare actual combat power
05:47based solely on the numbers. 1.13 million for North Korea and 270,000 for South Korea.
05:52However, the situation can change if the war becomes prolonged. When combat continues,
05:55not only frontline combat troops, but also rear support, equipment maintenance, supply,
05:58transportation, security, and facility defense become important. This is because a large number
06:02of personnel are needed for various tasks such as evacuating the wounded. This is also why the
06:05U.S. military's operational principles state that the attacking side must secure a significant
06:08numerical advantage over the defending side, and the defending side must also deploy enough troops to
06:12defend key areas. It is commonly mentioned that an attacking force needs about a 3 to 1 advantage,
06:16while a defending force can hold out with relatively fewer troops. However, if the structure
06:20projected for 2040 comes true with about 1.13 million North Korean troops and about 270,000 South Korean troops,
06:25North Korea would have roughly 4 times as many troops as South Korea, just in terms of numbers.
06:29This means that it will become even more important for South Korea to decide where
06:32and how many troops to deploy for defense. Especially even if North Korea does not deploy
06:35all its troops at once, the South Korean military must be prepared to respond to situations that
06:39could occur simultaneously in multiple areas. This includes not only the front lines, but also
06:42major cities and ports. Defense personnel are also needed for airports, military facilities,
06:46and command centers. Therefore, as troop numbers decrease in the future, the key issue will be how
06:49quickly the restructuring of units, expansion of unmanned systems, and strengthening of reserve
06:53forces promoted by the Ministry of National Defense can fill the resulting gaps in military strength.
06:56This leads to the following question. The question is, if there aren't enough people,
06:59can't we just replace them with drones and AI? In fact, the Ministry of National Defense is actively
07:03promoting the establishment of an integrated manned-unmanned combat system as a key solution
07:06to the decrease in available personnel, drones, and unmanned aerial vehicles. The plan is to expand
07:10unmanned forces such as unmanned submarines and actively utilize AI technology for the surveillance
07:14and security of major military facilities. The Ministry of National Defense has announced a vision to
07:17significantly expand unmanned forces by 2040 and to restructure the military so that some security
07:20roles previously handled by people will be automated. The advantages of this approach are clear.
07:24Even without people being directly involved in combat, it allows for long-term surveillance and
07:28reconnaissance, and by operating multiple unmanned systems at the same time, it is possible to
07:32continuously monitor a wide area, especially in areas that require repetitive surveillance,
07:36such as the GOP or major military facilities. A method that combines sensors, radar, cameras,
07:40and AI analysis systems to automatically detect unusual movements can be used. This is more
07:44effective than having people constantly monitor all the screens. It can be more efficient for AI to
07:47analyze large amounts of data first, and then filter and report suspicious situations. However,
07:52there are clear limitations to this. This is because the tasks that unmanned systems can handle,
07:56and the tasks that must be done by humans are different. Drones can conduct reconnaissance,
07:59but you still need personnel to maintain the equipment and manage batteries and parts.
08:02Skilled personnel are also needed to analyze the information collected by unmanned vehicles,
08:05and to connect it to operational commands. If you consider situations where communication networks
08:08are cut off, or unmanned systems do not function properly due to electronic warfare attacks,
08:12it is difficult to entrust all tasks to technology. Another important issue is that,
08:15as advanced weapons increase, the value of specialized personnel to operate them also
08:18rises. Fighter jets, air defense systems, precision strike weapons, satellite communications.
08:22To properly operate electronic warfare equipment and unmanned systems, you need personnel with
08:26sufficient training and experience. Securing a lot of equipment and having the ability to actually
08:30use that equipment effectively on the battlefield are two different issues. Therefore,
08:33the future of the Korean military is likely to move toward increasing AI and unmanned systems as
08:36the number of personnel decreases, but it's difficult for technology to completely replace human forces.
08:40On the contrary, since fewer personnel will have to operate more advanced equipment,
08:43the importance of specialized personnel who can handle high-level technology within the military
08:47may become even greater. The Deakinon era of decreasing troop numbers is not simply to reduce
08:51personnel, but to figure out how to combine people, AI, and unmanned systems so that combat
08:54power can be maintained even with fewer soldiers.
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