00:01We've seen this overseas, in the Northern Hemisphere especially.
00:05Once this virus enters we start to get these mass mortality events and unfortunately it
00:10seems to become endemic as this virus spreads through the world.
00:15It's really playing out exactly as we've seen elsewhere.
00:18So given these latest developments there here in Australia, how would you describe the outbreak
00:23in Australia?
00:25Well, we're sort of still in this phase of where we had this incursion and it's still
00:29in this epidemic phase, I would anticipate maybe by next year it would start to become
00:34endemic.
00:35So we've seen elsewhere, it's changed the pattern.
00:38This disease has been around for a long time but in the last four to five years it's become
00:42established in these wildlife populations and then spilling over into domestic poultry.
00:47So that's very different to what we've seen decades ago.
00:50So at this point in time, what are the species that are particularly at risk?
00:54So at the moment we're seeing initially it was with these pelagic birds coming from sub-Antarctica.
01:00Then it seems to have spilled over into particularly these crested terns, so shorebirds.
01:05The next phase would probably be moving more inland to waterbirds, you know, traditionally duck-type
01:11species are affected by this disease.
01:14So we'd start to see it in our waterways, you know, marsh, swamp areas.
01:18We'd start to see it moving probably from the coastal areas further inland.
01:22And then if we're looking at the way it has moved in other countries, then it moves on
01:26to the domestic birds as well.
01:27Yes, that's the next phase which we hope we will never get to but we call this a spillover
01:32event.
01:32So from the wild birds directly into poultry.
01:36So commercial poultry is very much aware of this and have very high biosecurity, but it's
01:43very difficult to prevent.
01:44And then of course, we've got backyard poultry, much less biosecurity.
01:48So we could see both of these sectors being affected maybe, you know, within the next few
01:53months.
01:53We have seen some action from authorities, some measures being taken like vaccine rollouts,
01:59for example.
01:59But given what stage we're at and the trajectory that you're talking about, is it time for
02:06authorities to step up action further?
02:08It's really a difficult decision to make.
02:11You know, whether we don't really want to go too early with vaccine, particularly in poultry,
02:15because there's trade implications, there's other issues about putting vaccine into the
02:19environment and these viruses love to sort of remix and recombine.
02:24So we don't really want to go there unless we absolutely have to.
02:27So it's that fine point between, is it too early or should we wait?
02:31What are the other options?
02:33There's not too many other options.
02:35I mean, with domestic poultry, biosecurity, so keeping poultry away from wild birds, surveillance,
02:41being on the lookout for these sudden death events, and then general sort of hygiene.
02:46You know, if we see it, if it's detected in a flock, that flock would be cold and then
02:51there'd be disinfection and there'd be restocking.
02:54In wild birds and wild mammals, there's not a lot we can do.
02:58There's the issue of carcasses.
03:00We don't want other scavenging animals in there moving the virus around.
03:04Pretty much it's stay away, keep the public away, wait till everything is, you know, the
03:10virus is out of that system.
03:12Not much else we can really do in the wild populations.
03:15We mentioned that earlier that we were moving into mating season.
03:19How does that impact the risk?
03:20Yeah, that's another big issue.
03:23I mean, this virus does move around with wild bird movements.
03:27So particularly with migratory birds, but also seasonally, when birds are moving, that's
03:31going to increase the spread.
03:33So it does depend we're going into spring, so things start to move again, and we would
03:37expect the virus to start moving with those birds.
03:39So looking ahead to the coming weeks and months and what we've seen in other countries, what
03:45are you expecting to happen?
03:47Yeah, very hard to make these predictions, but I would expect more of these mass mortality
03:51events.
03:53I think based on other experiences in the world, they'll continue.
03:56We'll get these occurring.
03:58But we'll start to see things settle down.
04:01But unfortunately, it means the virus has become endemic.
04:03So every so often, it's really become cyclical.
04:07We'll get outbreaks, things go quiet, we'll get more outbreaks.
04:10But from experiences elsewhere, it's here for good, unfortunately.
