00:03We're predicting a very large El Niño event in the tropical pacific. It could be that it's
00:12likely to be a sort of an unprecedented strength of event. We do from time to time have very large
00:18El Niño events. So there's a very large one in 97-98 and in 2015-16 and those peaked at
00:26about
00:26two and a half degrees. That was their sort of peak temperature anomaly in the tropical
00:32pacific. We think that this one is going to be peaking above three degrees for the first
00:37time. So that's going to be a very strong event and that will have global impacts over the
00:45coming months. So this is probably going to be the strongest event in the sort of modern
00:50historical record when we've had saturnites and lots of good measurements. There were
00:57some very large El Niño events in the 1870s but obviously going back that far it's hard
01:03to know exactly, you know, very accurately what the temperatures in the tropical pacific
01:08were because we're just relying on sort of boats and ships passing through the region.
01:13So yeah, we can say I think that this event, you know, is looking like the strongest event
01:17sort of in the 21st and 20th centuries but in the 19th century there may have been something
01:24of similar magnitude. There are ongoing work by climate scientists to try and sort of further
01:29unpick if climate change itself is having an impact on the frequency or the amplitude of
01:35these events but at the moment that's still sort of a research topic. So we're mainly viewing
01:43this as a natural internal variability in the climate system. So one of these events does
01:49pop up from time to time.
01:51the most important thing.
01:55We'll see you soon.
01:56Thank you.
01:56Thank you.
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