00:00Of course, there's a sense of plateauing when it comes to the war in the Middle East,
00:04but there's still plenty to talk about, especially regarding that economic isolation plan to be
00:09announced on Monday. Do you think that it will be effective?
00:17Well, I think that it's a way towards something being effective. I think that it will contain
00:24Iran in some ways, but also Iran has alternatives not as easy as we see them today. The UAE is
00:32a
00:32very important country, and China is very important, so it's interesting to see how the Chinese,
00:40the Emiratis, and others are going to navigate this and whether we will see illegal trade.
00:46It will contain in some ways, to your question, Iran, but it's not going to
00:53create an implosion. It's not necessarily going to make it easy for them, but at the same time,
00:59their aggression in the region is not going to be contained. So if we are waiting for many years
01:06for this implosion to take place, you know, that will take some time.
01:11Okay, and John, you mentioned the UAE, you mentioned the suspension that was announced
01:18a couple of days ago, essentially. When it comes to the UAE generally, and what its moves kind of
01:24allude to when it comes to wider Gulf moods, do you think that the mood in the Gulf countries is
01:28shifting towards more or less risk tolerance towards Iran's behavior over the past six months or so?
01:39For sure. I think that all the Gulf countries are just quite annoyed and very upset with what is
01:49happening. And as you said, they have very little risk appetite for what Iran is doing. At the same time,
01:57they're equally upset with the United States, because this is a war that was brought in by the U.S.
02:05They don't have a lot of alternatives. They have to eventually live with Iran. However, it's difficult
02:12to contain them. And remember that the move to blockade the trading partners of Iran was something
02:20that was said many months ago, the UAE had taken some steps towards continuing Iran, especially
02:27the business presence, the medical presence of Iran in Dubai and other locations in the UAE. Now it's
02:35more strict. It's more of a sanctions regime. And the UAE is fed up in a way, as well as
02:42the rest of the
02:42GCC with Iran. Okay. And John, I just am brought back to a conversation that we had with Jake Sullivan,
02:51of course, the former national security advisor under Joe Biden. Earlier this week, he did say
02:55that Gulf countries or countries in the region will may have to broker their own deals with Iran going
03:02forward. Do you think that's realistic? And do you think that is the approach they should go for,
03:07despite, of course, everything you just said about them being kind of annoyed by the behavior?
03:15Yeah. Well, I would like to emphasize that they're not just annoyed, but they're very concerned with
03:22what is going on, because this creates a war of attrition, instability. And the Gulf has been based
03:29in the last 35 years on this idea that it's a safe heaven for investors, tourists, and other people
03:37who call it a home, the Gulf region, the UAE, and so forth. So I think that there is an
03:44attempt to do
03:45bilateral deals. At the same time, the UAE and other Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, have to find
03:52unity. Very difficult. It's not easy. And I think that there could be these bilateral attempts. Qatar is
04:01trying to talk the UAE, Saudi Arabia. So they could be moving towards that, as Jake Sullivan said.
04:08But at the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding. And the proof is that Iran is
04:12very unstable.
04:15And, John, just finally, when it comes to what could happen going forward, what do you think the biggest
04:21miscalculation could be going forward? And would it be from Iran's side or the United States side?
04:29I think right now, Iran is miscalculating the willingness of the US to get very involved in the
04:38war and get into a 2.0 situation where they bring back bombings for several weeks, if not months. At
04:47the
04:47same time, the US has miscalculated the ability of the regime to sustain a lot of war. And I think
04:54both
04:54sides have taken this extreme view. I think as we're getting into the fall, it's going to be quite
05:00volatile. And I see more war coming, especially as we see the midterm elections. Iran is miscalculating
05:07that Trump is not going to do war because of his political concerns. I think that's where the big
05:13miscalculation is. He will do war.
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