00:00On Saturday, the nation of Iceland will hold a national referendum on whether or not to resume membership talks with
00:05the European Union.
00:06Membership negotiations previously began in 2009, but were put on ice in 2013.
00:12I'm going to leave that one right there.
00:15All right, the latest polling data shows the country is split almost down the middle,
00:18with 53% of people planning to vote yes and 47% planning to vote no,
00:23as Iceland weighs geopolitical pressure with a long history of independence.
00:27We talked to Ingo Sigfursund.
00:29He's a correspondent at RUV Iceland's National Broadcasting Service, about why now, why the country is considering this.
00:36Well, it was actually considered a decade ago.
00:39Iceland applied to join, and then, after having closed a few chapters on accession talks,
00:44sort of decided, eh, we're going to take a pause and see what happens.
00:48On one hand, it's because the two out of the three coalition parties in government right now are pro-EU
00:55and want to join,
00:56think it's a good move for Iceland, and have campaigned on it, and are sort of fulfilling their campaign promise.
01:03The other is sort of, I guess it has to do with where things are going in the world,
01:07even if it's not a huge part of the public discussion.
01:11Things are changing around Iceland.
01:13We're in the middle of the so-called GI-UK gap.
01:16That is the part of the sea where Russia would need to get through to do anything in the North
01:20Atlantic.
01:21Like, let's say, start bugging you guys on the east coast of the U.S.
01:26We've also seen what President Trump was talking about in Greenland.
01:31The Arctic is opening up.
01:33That's changing the economics of the area.
01:36It's also changing just the security and defense discussion.
01:39So those are factors perhaps more for the politicians and sort of the chattering classes, if you will, than for
01:48the general public.
01:49But those are sort of the elements that are on the side of those who want to join are important.
01:53It seems to me, you referenced it a little bit, but the part that people maybe aren't saying out loud
01:59as much is,
02:01in the current era of uncertainty and uncertain economic policy, especially coming from Washington,
02:06are countries like Iceland looking at the EU bloc as some more insurance if they have,
02:12you know, if the president wakes up and decides he wants to change tariffs on Icelandic goods or change regulations?
02:18Do you have better negotiating powers or safety in numbers?
02:23I mean, I think that's certainly part of the discussion.
02:26If you look at a small country like Iceland, who sort of historically, even if we're fronting members of NATO
02:31and have had a bilateral defense agreement with the U.S. since 1951,
02:36we've always played that small power card when we needed to.
02:41We also negotiated with the Soviet Union when it was in our advantage.
02:45But things have changed. You're quite right.
02:47And it's, no, it's sort of public policy that we should have, I think the wording is more pillars
02:56to sort of lean on when it comes to security and defense.
03:00That's not to say that people are dissing the U.S.
03:03The politicians here are making quite sure that they don't say anything that might rub anyone the wrong way
03:09on that side of the Atlantic.
03:11But it's certainly, I mean, things have changed.
03:14And then you need to change.
03:16You need to figure out how you have guarantees to the extent that such a thing exists.
03:24You are currently not on the EU.
03:26Is that something that would change?
03:29And correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the EU has said that if you vote yes to join,
03:35this could potentially be done and wrapped up within the year.
03:38Is that reasonable? Is that even feasible?
03:41I mean, people have talked about a year or two.
03:43So we're members of the European economic area, which means Poland, Norway, Liechtenstein,
03:50a few other countries are part of this area that is sort of outside the EU, but still accepts,
03:56I mean, it depends on how you count it, but up to 70% of EU law anyway,
04:00we're member of the free trade area.
04:03So we're sort of in to a large extent, but without a vote.
04:09So that is what would potentially change with joining.
04:15That is sort of the big deal, what would change.
04:17And of course, then there's a talk of what would we be giving up if we joined.
04:22Well, that's what I was going to ask you.
04:23It seems to me like you did have the best of both worlds because you had the independence.
04:27I mean, people look at Brexit, people complain about the clunkiness of the EU and the bureaucracy.
04:32Is it getting to a point where nations like Iceland are more willing to give up some of that independence
04:38and some of that freedom for the protection of these larger trading blocs and economic unions
04:43because, well, because of what's happening in Washington?
04:47I think that's really the heart of the debate here.
04:50That's the core.
04:51You know, what are we giving?
04:53What are we gaining?
04:54Independence and sovereignty are very big for the people sort of that are against joining the EU.
04:59They fear giving up power to a centralized great bureaucracy in Brussels
05:04and that will have virtually no say in how things are managed as a tiny nation.
05:10Fisheries also being a big part of it sort of goes to how we manage the fishery stocks in the
05:15ocean around Iceland.
05:17But, yes, I mean, what is to be gained?
05:20What is to be given up?
05:23Of course, parts of the sovereignty would be given up in return for some benefits.
05:28It's also fairly likely or almost certain that Iceland would pay more into the common EU funds
05:34than we would receive as cash or donations or subventions or whatnot.
05:40But it's a very complex arithmetic, isn't it?
05:42I mean, what are you paying?
05:43What are you giving up?
05:44And what are you getting in return?
05:46It's important to say that this referendum is actually only about whether we have accession talks with the EU,
05:52whether we talk to the EU about what would it look like if we were to join.
05:57And then if it's a yes now in August, we'll have those talks for a couple of years.
06:03And then at the end of those negotiations, there will be a second referendum to say
06:07do we actually like the deal or not.
06:09So in the end, it'll come down to the public either now or then.
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