00:00The United States is currently issuing a warning to the world.
00:02The U.S. has warned that as early as this fall, Russia may attempt an attack on NATO.
00:06Considering that the U.S. has issued warnings right before various wars broke out in the past,
00:10and those wars actually happened, this is a rather chilling warning.
00:13Currently, in the war in Ukraine, Russia has not been able to turn the tide.
00:17On the contrary, Russia has even allowed some of Ukraine's counter-attacks.
00:21As a result, there are reports that President Putin of Russia, in order to reverse this situation,
00:25may attempt a limited attack on NATO as early as this fall or within the next few years to test
00:30NATO's resolve.
00:31We need to be precise here.
00:33Testing NATO's resolve means testing NATO's collective defense system.
00:36If even one of the 32 NATO member countries is attacked by an enemy,
00:40it is considered an attack on all of NATO, and all NATO member countries must respond with force.
00:45But the idea is to intentionally break this system by testing it.
00:49This information comes from U.S. intelligence agencies.
00:52In particular, it's said that Russia could test NATO's willingness to respond through limited attacks.
00:56The scenarios presented by U.S. intelligence agencies are quite diverse.
00:59At the lowest level, cyberattacks are being discussed.
01:01At a higher level, territorial incursions using drones have also been mentioned.
01:05Russia could send drones into the airspace or territory of NATO member countries,
01:08and then target military facilities, or
01:10the visit involved conducting reconnaissance,
01:12or carrying out limited attacks around military facilities, or key infrastructure.
01:15This is already happening continuously in places like Romania.
01:18However, U.S. intelligence agencies are presenting even more dangerous scenarios
01:21beyond just cyberattacks or drone incursions.
01:23They have also mentioned methods similar to those used during Russia's occupation of Crimea in 2014.
01:27At that time, the Russian military deployed troops without clear identification on their uniforms,
01:31and the Russian government also did not officially acknowledge their identity in the early stages.
01:35It is known that U.S. intelligence officials are considering the possibility
01:38that Russia might use similar methods against NATO member countries.
01:41This involves the Russian military deploying armed forces to border areas
01:44while concealing their affiliation or nationality,
01:47taking control of administrative agencies or military facilities in certain regions,
01:50and then denying any direct connection to Russia.
01:52If this happens, NATO will have to make a very complicated decision,
01:55because even if armed forces are actually occupying territory in the country,
01:58it may be difficult to immediately determine whether they are regular Russian troops,
02:02pro-Russian armed groups, or irregular organizations supported by Russia.
02:05If Russia denies the attack itself and buys time,
02:08there is a possibility that they will further strengthen their control over the area.
02:11Therefore, what the U.S. government and intelligence agencies are concerned about
02:15is not only large-scale troop deployments,
02:17but also limited military actions whose perpetrators and intentions are difficult to clearly define.
02:22But ever since this analysis from the U.S. government intelligence agencies came out,
02:26Russia has been provoking Europe more frequently.
02:28Even if you check them out right now, in the past year,
02:30the countries Russia has provoked in Europe include Estonia, Latvia, Romania, Serbia, Germany, Sweden, and Poland.
02:36That's quite a lot.
02:38Compared to before, Russia continues to carry out provocations.
02:40Let me explain step by step.
02:42First, in the case of Germany, there was an attempted assassination targeting an executive of a German startup defense company,
02:47but it failed.
02:48And there was also an incident where Russia sent a suicide drone to the security area
02:51near a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig Halle Airport in eastern Germany.
02:54According to a report released last month by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the UK,
02:59at least 144 suspicious drone sightings were reported in 13 countries between August 2025 and February 2026.
03:07Also in Sweden, an agent belonging to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service was arrested.
03:11This agent tried to infiltrate the Swedish government to collect information on activities against Russia
03:16and take countermeasures, but was caught and arrested.
03:19And in Swedish society, they tried to create division and make the people fight among themselves.
03:23Also, in Poland, during Russia's attack on Ukraine,
03:26numerous drones entered Polish airspace, and the Polish Air Force and NATO allies shot down some of these aircraft.
03:32And in eastern Poland, tensions rose when a Russian missile appeared.
03:36It fell on farmland, so there were no casualties.
03:39And in the case of Romania, Russia keeps sending in drones whenever it gets the chance.
03:43They've already sent drones into Romania 33 times.
03:46In fact, in May, a Russian military drone attacked an apartment in the eastern Galati region of Romania,
03:51injuring two people.
03:52There have been as many as 50 cases of drones or debris being found on Romanian territory.
03:56As you can see, Russia has recently been carrying out various forms of provocations against NATO member countries.
04:02But in this situation, the response shown by NATO countries has remained quite defensive.
04:07Most of the time, they only tracked or intercepted drones that entered their airspace
04:11and investigated missiles or suspicious objects that fell on their territory.
04:14There have been no direct military attacks against Russia or retaliatory operations targeting Russian territory.
04:20Diplomatically, their response was also limited to strongly criticizing Russia
04:24and expressing the intention to hold them accountable.
04:26From NATO's perspective, there are reasons why they have no choice but to respond this way.
04:30If they respond militarily right away to Russia's attacks,
04:32it could create a situation where NATO and Russia directly clash separate from the war in Ukraine.
04:36Especially the moment NATO directly attacks Russian territory.
04:40Russia could also use that as justification for further military action.
04:43This is why NATO has so far tried to avoid escalation as much as possible
04:48and has maintained a defensive response.
04:50But the problem is that Russia continues its provocations even after seeing these responses.
04:54At first, it was just airspace violations,
04:56but later there were actual cases of missiles or drones falling on NATO territory.
05:00There have also been incidents where civilians have been injured.
05:03From the perspective of NATO member countries,
05:05even though their own territory and citizens are being directly harmed,
05:07they keep limiting the level of their response to avoid a full-scale conflict with Russia.
05:10This situation keeps repeating itself.
05:12There are concerns that if this situation continues,
05:14Russia will be able to figure out NATO's response thresholds.
05:17That's because Russia can find out to what extent they have to attack for NATO to respond militarily,
05:20and in which cases NATO only makes diplomatic protests.
05:23If Russia is actually testing NATO's willingness to respond in this way,
05:26it's hard to rule out the possibility that the intensity of provocations will gradually increase.
05:29This is why there are concerns that as NATO countries keep focusing on defense
05:33and avoiding direct responses every time they're attacked,
05:36Russia might consider higher levels of military action against certain member states.
05:40So the key question is where Russia might actually try to carry out such attacks.
05:44According to several foreign media reports,
05:45there are four main countries that are commonly mentioned.
05:48The three Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, and Poland.
05:51All four of these countries are located in areas that are directly connected to Russia's Western military strategy,
05:57and their geographic conditions mean they are inevitably affected by the military movements of Russia and Belarus.
06:02In particular, between Poland and the three Baltic states lie Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave, and Belarus,
06:08making this a region that European military experts have long paid attention to.
06:12The area most frequently mentioned in Poland is the Suwalki Gap.
06:15The Suwalki Gap is a narrow land corridor between Poland and Lithuania,
06:19located between Russia's Kaliningrad to the west and Belarus, Russia's ally to the east.
06:23The reason this area is important is because it serves as a land corridor connecting the three Baltic states with
06:29other NATO member countries.
06:30If Russian and Belarusian forces try to pressure or seize this area at the same time,
06:34NATO's land supply routes to the three Baltic states could be severely restricted.
06:38That's why the Suwalki Gap is considered one of the areas in Europe where tensions could rise first in the
06:43event of a military conflict.
06:45However, actually choosing Poland as a target for attack could be a significant burden for Russia as well.
06:49In recent years, Poland has been rapidly strengthening its army, artillery, air defense, and armored forces through large-scale military
06:56expansion.
06:57From Russia's perspective, Poland has become a country with much stronger military power compared to the past,
07:02so even if they attempt a limited attack, they would have to endure a significant military response.
07:06Therefore, if Russia tries to test NATO's willingness to respond,
07:09there is a possibility that it may choose the Baltic states, where the military burden is relatively lower.
07:13The situation of the Baltic states is quite different from that of Poland.
07:16Estonia and Latvia, even if you combine the forces of all three countries,
07:19Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.
07:21It is known to be only about 34,000 to 45,000 troops.
07:24Because the countries themselves are small, there are limits to maintaining a large-standing army,
07:27and compared to Russia, their ability to independently conduct a large-scale war for an extended period is also limited.
07:31In particular, all three countries are unable to independently operate a large-scale air force,
07:35and their heavy equipment capabilities, such as tanks, are also limited.
07:38Therefore, it is assessed that it would be difficult to withstand a large-scale Russian attack for an extended period
07:42with only their own forces in the event of an emergency.
07:45The most concerning issue here is time.
07:46While NATO has the military capability to support its member countries,
07:49the actual arrival of troops on the ground is a different matter.
07:52If an attack occurs, each country must assess the situation and determine the level of military response,
07:56and there is also a process required to move the necessary troops and equipment.
07:59In countries with small territories like the Baltic states, this time can be even more critical.
08:03If Russian forces quickly seize certain areas in the early stages and take control of major transportation networks or military
08:08facilities,
08:08there is concern that they could secure a significant amount of territory before NATO reinforcement troops arrive.
08:12That's why one scenario being raised is if Russia carries out a very rapid military action against one of the
08:18Baltic states.
08:18Instead of deploying large numbers of troops for a long period, the Russian military would quickly move troops near the
08:23border,
08:24seize key facilities, and transportation networks, and undermine the local government's ability to respond.
08:28If that happens, by the time NATO decides to provide military support, the local military situation could have already changed
08:34significantly.
08:35What Russia might aim for is not just occupying all of the Baltic states for a long time,
08:38but also securing as much territory as possible before NATO can fully respond, creating a new situation.
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