00:00Markets are worried about what's the reaction function of the Fed. Market
00:03doesn't really love the fact that we don't have forward guidance. And what's
00:07interesting, I said I was off last week, you saw you got a rally in twos and a
00:11continued sell-off in the 30-year. On softer data. On softer data. We had
00:16softer CPI data. We had a softer employment number. And you know I don't
00:22think it matters what the Fed does. You know we've had a view that the Fed's on
00:25hold. You know what at this point I'm like go ahead just hike and move on with
00:29it. Because you've got this the long end backing up and they're almost trying to
00:34bully him into hiking. Can I ask you how much influence you think they have over the
00:37long end? Well I think that's exactly the problem. Is that the markets worrying in
00:43the absence of forward guidance. In the absence of clarity of what the Fed will
00:47do with inflation. And the concerns about how the Fed's gonna define inflation. You
00:53know you get a rally in twos and think okay maybe the market's not gonna maybe
00:57we're not gonna get a hike next month. But the long end comes up because of
01:03concerns about that. And I think that Warsh has it in his power. It'll be
01:07interesting this week. Tomorrow we'll have the Fed minutes. We'll be able to see
01:10okay the three dissenters. Well of the nine people who thought that rates will be
01:15higher this year. That they should hike sometime this year. What is the
01:20composition of that? Are those Fed presidents that are coming on to the
01:23committee FOMC as voting members next year? It'll be interesting to see what's
01:28going on there. But I think you know what hike and move on if that's what it is.
01:31But
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