00:00Can I just very briefly summarize a view then from you? I mean, push back if you want, but is
00:05your take then that freight rates higher for longer?
00:11I think the freight rates will continue to be volatile. They have been very volatile the last six or seven
00:16years.
00:16They will continue to be volatile, but I think the general environment for the years to come will be more
00:22benign as long as the market continues to be as resilient as it has been for the past few years.
00:28Just because we are reaching some of these bottlenecks and we are we are starting to stretch the capacity and
00:33we we we're seeing more and more events here and there.
00:36And certainly these disruptions will be more prevalent in the future.
00:41So, yes, we're thinking that continued volatility, more benign environment and therefore a better outlook for the segment.
00:49And you gave us some color on the China story with that weight of 12 days, I think you said,
00:53outside of Shanghai.
00:54What is the volume growth looking like for China going forward in the quarters ahead?
01:00Yeah. So, I mean, what we see outside the fact that demand is resilient is that demand is more and
01:07more coming for exports out of Asia.
01:11We have a we have a market that is growing for the year at about four percent, but we have
01:16the far east market is growing just in the second quarter with the disruption of the Middle East has grown
01:22as close to six percent for export for the far east to the world.
01:26So trade is becoming more and more imbalanced, which is exacerbating some of these imbalances and need for infrastructure to
01:32adapt to actually a different trade flows, different levels of of balance.
01:39It's creating certain cost pressures, but it is also creating accelerating, exacerbating some of these bottlenecks that that created the
01:45rate environment that that we have.
01:47So so certainly the the Asian export machine is humming right now very, very strongly because a lot of the
01:56stuff that we need for for cooling, for electrification, whether it's grid or production or distribution or the products that
02:03use it.
02:03A lot of it does come from Asia, does not have substitutes outside of Asia and will continue to drive
02:08demands as long as electrification and data centers becomes or continues to be a big, a big level of demand.
02:16I mean, if there's still this reliance on Asia, I guess, does that go against the story that we've seen
02:21kind of more regionalization, de-globalization in the last few years or, you know, what is your take on how
02:28that evolves?
02:31I think that you're right. There's been a lot of talk about regionalization and de-globalization. If you just look
02:39at the container statistics or trading statistics for the past 10, 15 years, you cannot see that in the number.
02:47What you see is an increasing dependency on Asia for imports from the rest of the world. And that is
02:55true across across all regions.
02:58It doesn't matter if you look at Europe or emerging markets or or even North America, there is an increased
03:03reliance on Asia for a lot of the products that that need to come from there.
03:08And a lot of the focus when it comes to regionalizations is on key components and key parts that are
03:15not necessarily what is driving a lot of the global trade, but but that have a disproportionate strategic value to
03:22be produced close to home or at home.
03:25And this is, I think, one of the misunderstandings between the components that are key that hold high strategic value
03:31and what actually drives the volumes and trade.
03:35There is a dichotomy there that I think the current dialogue is is missing on.
03:40And the numbers that we're presenting and that we've been presenting for the last three years certainly show that this
03:46is so far going only one way.
03:47And it is more and more reliance on on Asia from the rest of the world and specifically China to
03:55a large extent.
03:57I mean, I'm quite surprised by that. And it's super interesting. Thank you.
04:00I mean, I'm also interested to get your take on China's launched a new shipping route through the Arctic as
04:07you've had these kind of choke points come under pressure.
04:10Is that something that you'd be looking at?
04:11Yeah. I mean, we're always looking at, of course, ways to most effective ways to to to move to move
04:23goods from from where they originate to where they need to be.
04:26As it is today, we don't see the Arctic route beyond having a ship here or a ship there being
04:32really a substitute.
04:33It's unpredictable. It relies on on sanctioned Russia to provide to provide the icebreakers and escort throughout those waters.
04:45It has environmental issues that are not properly mapped at this stage.
04:50And it is also very unpredictable given how the weather is.
04:55So at this stage, I think this is this is not necessarily something that we see if you take the
05:00next five years horizon as being something that is going to play a big role in in shipping.
05:05If you look long far enough in the future, who knows?
05:08But I think this is something we will have time to to relate to later on.
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