00:00A conflict without missiles or tanks, but with disruption and provocation.
00:07An undeclared hybrid war waged by Russia against the Baltic states.
00:11Hidden, persistent and increasingly difficult to ignore.
00:16The risk for Baltic states is very high.
00:19The pressure is growing.
00:21They asked if I have a salary if something happens.
00:24The European Union may say we are not at war,
00:27but whatever peace once was, it's already fading.
00:30And nowhere is that felt more clearly than here in the Baltic region.
00:42I'm on board a warship of the Estonian Navy.
00:46In this episode of Cold Border, we want to understand
00:49what it means to live next to a conflict that is never officially declared.
00:57Out of sight, deep beneath the waves, a vast network of undersea cables keeps the world connected,
01:03powering economies and carrying global data.
01:06When those cables are damaged, the impact can reach far beyond the coastline.
01:11In the Baltic Sea, a series of cable incidents since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine
01:16has heightened security concerns.
01:18Western officials suspect Russian involvement, a claim Moscow denies.
01:24NATO has responded by increasing patrols, surveillance and naval deployments,
01:30making the Baltic one of the airline's most closely-watched waterways.
01:35This ship is part of a kind of silent defense.
01:39Its crew monitors shipping routes and watches what NATO calls the Shadow Fleet.
01:44Old oil tankers linked to Russia. Operating under foreign flags.
01:51Often uninsured, often hard to trace.
01:54One serious accident here could cause an environmental disaster.
02:00We are in the Gulf of Finland, one of Europe's busiest and most strategically important shipping routes.
02:06Every day, tankers linked to Russia's so-called Shadow Fleet transit these waters,
02:12helping sustain Moscow's oil exports despite Western sanctions.
02:17Some of those vessels have drawn scrutiny as investigators probe a string of damaged cables in the Baltic Sea.
02:25On the bridge, vigilance is constant.
02:28Officers monitor ship traffic for anything unusual.
02:31Sudden course changes, unexplained stops or vessels lingering near critical infrastructure.
02:36Right now, we are coming closer to this unofficial anchorage where about 30 vessels are waiting.
02:42Lieutenant Alexander Espenberg explains why some of these vessels have attracted particular attention.
02:49Can you know about this vessel? Is it supposed to be part of the Shadow Fleet or not?
02:52So, this vessel is called Simofate.
02:54It has been in this Weinloh unofficial anchorage area over 15 days now.
03:00This, at the moment, is the ship that has been here the longest.
03:03And it's not normal for even these tankers to stay here for that long.
03:09And we consider this ship as one of the Russian Shadow Fleet vessels.
03:13This ship has been tries to either hide its intentions or confuse on what its actual activity is at the
03:20moment,
03:20or where its location is, or where it's heading.
03:25Out here, the traffic jam is geopolitical.
03:28Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities have slowed exports,
03:32leaving dozens of tankers waiting for days, sometimes weeks, in the Gulf of Finland.
03:40Russia's hybrid war playbook doesn't stop at the water's edge.
03:44The same vulnerabilities exist on land – power, transport and communications.
03:49This hydroelectric plant near Riga supplies a significant share of Latvia's electricity.
03:56And this railway bridge across the Daugava river is a critical transport link.
04:02Security officials warn both could become targets.
04:05The most likely scenario will not be some kind of huge emergency situation, but rather smaller events or incidents.
04:17And the overall aim is, first of all, test our infrastructure.
04:22For much of the Baltic standoff with Russia, the threat has been largely invisible – beneath the sea, along shipping
04:30routes and around critical infrastructure.
04:32But in recent months, it has moved from the water into the sky.
04:38Military drones entering the airspace of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have triggered repeated alerts.
04:45Officials say many were diverted by Russian electronic warfare, bringing the war closer to home, damaging local businesses.
04:55Just five kilometers from the Belarusian border lies Lyoborne.
05:00Here Nora Poysha Danilova and her husband Vladimir spent years restoring a historic manor and turning it into a small
05:09hotel.
05:09Surrounded by forest, it feels far from the front line.
05:14But after a series of drone incidents, visitors stopped coming.
05:18Latvia's tourism industry says foreign bookings have fallen sharply, with cancellations reaching up to 60% in some areas.
05:27Corporate events, school trips and even domestic tourism have also declined, causing losses estimated in hundreds of thousands of euros
05:36across the eastern region of Latvia.
05:39There have been virtually no new bookings and our calendar is barely filling up.
05:44When all of this was happening, the drones, the air raid alerts, it affected everyday life, our sleep and our
05:49nights.
05:50Our youngest daughter stayed calm, we talked a lot about these issues in the family.
05:55And we even discussed with the children how these drones fly, and that if one ever came this way, it
06:01probably wouldn't hit the house.
06:04For Nora, the biggest challenge is uncertainty. The drones never hit her home, but they changed the atmosphere around it.
06:12Yet leaving has never been an option. The manor represents years of work and hope.
06:18So while others question life near the border, Nora's answer is simple.
06:23We're investing everything we have into this place. We believe in its future. That's why we're staying. This is our
06:31home.
06:32Nora's optimism speaks to something harder to measure than military strength. Resilience.
06:37Because hybrid warfare isn't just about territory. It's about pressure, undermining confidence and creating uncertainty.
06:48Along Latvia's border with Belarus, that pressure is constant.
06:52Latvia has become a key route for migrants trying to enter the European Union via Belarus.
06:57These images show repeated attempts to cross illegally. Officials say more than 12,000 illegal crossings were prevented in 2025.
07:07By July this year, another 7,500 people had already been stopped.
07:13For Latvia, the challenge is unrelenting. Belarus remains Russia's closest ally.
07:19And officials see the migration pressure as part of a broader effort to test the country's borders and its resolve.
07:29This is a highly organized criminal network. Recruiters use social media to find drivers.
07:37They can earn several thousand euros per trip, even though they risk prison sentences of up to 10 years.
07:49On a map, it's a thin line, on the ground to one of Europe's most contested frontiers.
07:55Latvia's borders with Russia and Belarus stretch 456 kilometers.
08:02This border has become one of the European Union's most closely monitored and politically sensitive frontiers.
08:11Border guards tell us that most migrants don't intend to stay in Latvia.
08:16Instead, they use the Baltic state as a transit route to Western Europe, especially Germany.
08:21And that raises a difficult question.
08:25If the goal of hybrid warfare is to keep societies constantly off-balance, can any country ever be fully prepared?
08:33100% prepared. We will never be.
08:36But the main thing is not to have plants only on the papers. It's really about training, about drilling, drilling
08:45on an everyday basis.
08:49As the sun sets over Latvia, Nore and Vladimir prepare dinner. Another ordinary evening.
08:58Life goes on. And across the Baltics, resilience may be proving as important as any military defense.
09:06Climbs &
09:08Mesh
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