00:00Yeah, I think Republicans are in a position to actually hold both houses 60 percent and more than that with
00:07the Senate, probably 80 percent.
00:10Three points. One, you know, the Democrats' crazy train is still rolling on.
00:15Pong may have lost in Wisconsin for the governor, but you get a very sharp-tongued Democrat in Flanagan, very
00:21left, kind of 2020-ish candidate in Flanagan, picking up the nomination for Minnesota Senate.
00:28That certainly makes that race more competitive.
00:32Secondly, on the 60 percent, you know, you get a situation here where in a battle between Democrat insurgents and
00:39Democrat establishment, which you really saw in Michigan as well as Wisconsin, you know, the establishment is more interested in
00:48holding on to the control of the party.
00:51And, you know, they'd be quite happy to see some of these candidates go down.
00:55So watch for that dynamic, I think.
00:58Thirdly, the stakes for markets are much higher now than they were just months ago.
01:02This is now about whether or not there's going to be 2027 animal spirits versus whether there's going to be
01:09a Washington Paul cast on markets through the 2028 election.
01:13And I think I've got to unpack that more this month, but that's where this is headed, I think.
01:18Terry, I think a lot of folks are just kind of surprised that the Democrats haven't pursued a very simple
01:23policy of kind of, we're just anti-Trump.
01:27Aren't you tired?
01:28Let's take back both houses and let's move on, as opposed to splitting up the party at this point.
01:33Do you think the Democrats are missing a big opportunity here?
01:36They're missing a huge opportunity.
01:39And I think it goes beyond the Trump rage.
01:44They're missing a huge opportunity to start talking about what it is that they might do and how it is
01:50that they might do it.
01:51One reason why both parties, from the public's perspective, both parties are in the toilet and Trump's not far behind,
01:58although he's a little more popular than the parties, is that they don't do stuff well.
02:04You know, they don't do the block and tackles, like John Fetterman said, you know, just, you know, you're a
02:09mayor, go out and like fill potholes, you know, like do the basic competence stuff and let's work on that.
02:16Democrats have no plan on that.
02:18DSA particularly has no plan on that, as the New Yorker's David Remnick unmasked here a few days ago with
02:26the DSA policy person.
02:28You know, and as long as that's more than the same, neither party is going to be trusted, neither party
02:33is going to have an advantage.
02:34I know David Gurr's interview with David Remnick here recently as well for Bloomberg this weekend.
02:39Terry Haynes, I'm all about turnout.
02:41My father would sit at the breakfast table and lecture me that there's this, there's that, the Terry Haynes consultancy
02:47and all that.
02:48But voters got to show up, frame out the Biden-Harris non-turnout, and then frame out the Democratic turnout.
02:57You see in November and the Republican and MAGA turnout in November.
03:04Sure.
03:06Firstly, you know, I called, as you kindly point out to your audiences, I called a lot of things right,
03:14including no waves in different elections.
03:16I called the barest of wins for Harris in 2024, and I'll tell you why.
03:21Why? Because I thought that the, this buttress is an earlier point I was going to make, by the way,
03:28the, or I did make, the, if he had, if she had get out the vote in swing states with
03:35the same intensity as Biden, she would have won the election.
03:38And she didn't. She lost. She lost, you know, half a million votes in Pennsylvania that she couldn't have lost.
03:45And, you know, that's by and large the establishment going, nah, I'm not going to work for her quite so
03:49much.
03:52In, it's a tale of two cities for Democrats this year, but there's a lot less than meet the eye
03:58with the progressives.
03:59And, and Michigan Senate's a perfect example of that.
04:02He had very high turnout in Michigan, over 70%.
04:05Wow.
04:06And the progressive victor, El Sayed, could not get more than half of those voters.
04:12Say it again, more than half of those voters did not vote for El Sayed.
04:17That's a bad sign for El Sayed.
04:19It's a bad sign for Democrats in Michigan.
04:21Good sign for the Democratic establishment in Michigan, which holds a lot more cards.
04:25In other states that had primaries, Virginia, for example, Virginia, you know, in my home city, in Virginia, Alexandria, Alexandria
04:34had something like 12% turnout, you know, and incumbents by and large kept their, kept their seats.
04:42What you got here is a situation where, you know, people who are touting Democrats are putting far too much
04:48emphasis on national things like generic polls and intensity.
04:55But in contested races, the contested intensity, the enthusiasm is a lot more even.
05:02And, you know, if you've got a redistricting advantage for Republicans and you've got a money advantage for Republicans, you're
05:09going to start seeing that come out in the fall.
05:11Terry, in a few months' time, these midterms are going to be in the rearview mirror here.
05:15Do we have any visibility for either party as to 2028 on the presidential side?
05:20Oh, I don't think meaningfully, but I'll tell you a story to illustrate from long ago.
05:26Tom's good friend, Pat Buchanan, was a was a wet behind the ears, the sole aide to former Vice President
05:34Nixon in 1966.
05:36Buchanan loves to tell the story on himself that Buchanan got all freaked out in 1966, early 67, that George
05:45Romney was leading polls and Nixon wasn't.
05:47And he actually called up Nixon, kind of panicked and said, you know, we got to do something.
05:51And Nixon gently laughed and said, you know, it's like, you know, two years away.
05:57Like, you know, let's watch this play out a little bit.
05:59You don't want to be first two years out.
06:01And sure enough, you know, Romney imploded and Nixon went.
06:05So, you know, I don't think any of it's meaningful right now.
06:08Terry, let me get this in and I'll probably revisit it four times till we get to November 2028.
06:13One of the great moments I had was two in the morning, Margaret Brennan and I, in the Hanover Inn
06:19in Dartmouth, in Hanover, New Hampshire, Dartmouth College.
06:24And we're all on our fourth beverage, Terry, not that you've ever seen that at a political gathering.
06:29And it's a guy named...
06:30Or in the Dartmouth, or in the Hanover Inn for that.
06:32Yeah, there's a guy named Newt and me in the back room.
06:35And we're doing history and Newt figures out I got my act together.
06:39And Newt Gingrich told me something, the historian, that a party that's in disarray needs three cycles to recover till
06:48they decide they want to win again.
06:51Where are the Democrats now in Gingrich's three cycles to straighten it out and win like they did with Clinton
06:59and Obama?
07:01Newt was certainly right then, and back when he said that to you.
07:06And what I think Newt was thinking about at that time was how Democrats took forever to come back after
07:13Reagan won in 1980.
07:14And I mean forever, right?
07:15Twelve years and kind of a Clinton upheaval.
07:19What do they need?
07:21They need coherence.
07:23In other words, they need to be one party instead of two.
07:26Present a united face.
07:28They need to present united policies.
07:32And I say that not as some sort of policy wonk, but as somebody that thinks that a big part
07:38of the problem with Democrats is lack of trust, that they will make things better.
07:43They don't point to anything that will encourage people to think that.
07:47So nobody does.
07:49And finally, they need to be a little, and not just a little, a lot calmer.
07:54And right now they are kind of full of sound and fury signifying nothing.
07:59After that, they're not all going to say all kinds of acting things, yeah?
08:00Another thing is really nice.
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