00:00First of all, with respect to the job stubber, as you mentioned, it was negative, but there
00:03were a couple of special factors. The consensus was it would be plus 88,000, which I think
00:07is consistent with everything else we've seen, which means it's a pretty strong economy.
00:12And the reason it got negative was there was a big decline in government workers and people
00:17who were leaving hospitality because of the World Cup. And so if you think it's an 88,000
00:22number, then you'd have to say that all the other signals like booming investment, booming
00:26wages, incredible factory construction, 85,000 construction workers now building factories
00:32when it was about zero when President Trump took office. All of that says really strong
00:36economy. But if I were at the Fed, we respect they're independent. I respect they're going
00:40to look at the data and do what they think is right, that this is all supply side stuff,
00:44which should increase supply put downward pressure on prices. It's not a Phillips curve kind of
00:48thing where there's government throwing money at things and that's creating jobs. And so if I were
00:54at the Fed right now, I would either hold steady or cut rates because there's so much supply side
00:58momentum.
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