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00:00The leaders of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan have signed a joint defence agreement.
00:05The deal comes at a time of heightened regional tensions due to the US-Iran war.
00:10It was signed by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,
00:13Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif in Mecca.
00:19Turkey is describing it as, quote, purely defensive in nature.
00:23Pakistani foreign minister says under the agreement,
00:25an attack against any of the three countries will be considered an attack against them all.
00:31The talks follow a series of defence initiatives to strengthen regional security cooperation.
00:37Last month, Saudi Arabia announced a 14-nation coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al
00:43-Mandab Strait.
00:44Kuwait has signed a five-year defence cooperation agreement with Pakistan.
00:49It strengthens military ties through training and joint drills.
00:52And last year, Riyadh and Islamabad signed a defence agreement, deepening their long-standing security partnership.
01:01Assam bin Javid is here with us in Doha.
01:05Assam, this is clearly a very key defence security pact.
01:10An attack on one is an attack on us all.
01:12But at the moment, it's just political, right, do we think?
01:15Well, I think it's beyond political.
01:18This is more than a diplomatic get-together and signing of an agreement.
01:21This essentially puts three of the largest Muslim populations together on the roadmap for joint peace,
01:29for deterring any acts of aggression against them,
01:32for making sure that they are in tune with each other when it comes to intelligence sharing,
01:38gathering of all of the information that is required,
01:41and also enhancing cooperation on all sorts of spheres,
01:45whether it's energy, defence expenditure and manufacturing,
01:49as well as everything else that comes in the middle.
01:53Pakistan brings with it, obviously, its nuclear arsenal,
01:56battle-hardened military munitions that it has been supplying,
01:59Turkey with its advanced drones and munition systems,
02:02a member of NATO,
02:03and with that, combine the economic power of Saudi Arabia.
02:07All three of them combined now present a force which is going to take this region
02:13towards a different security architecture that had been placed in the last few decades,
02:18especially in the wake of the Iran war.
02:20Pakistan and Turkey share a border with Iran.
02:23They are the first ones to feel the impact of anything that happens in Iran.
02:27And as you've been seeing all of the attacks against the GCC,
02:30Saudi Arabia has actually been held back by these countries
02:34not to retaliate against Iran and come to a solution
02:37where it is going to be a solution that is built on the table rather than the battlefield.
02:42Mohammed bin Salman has actually been key to this
02:45because he's now putting Saudi Arabia in a place
02:48where he wants to project it as a source of strength for the entire region.
02:52You've seen him sign military pacts with the Ukrainians without telling the Americans.
02:57He's signed a defence agreement with Pakistan,
02:59now a trilateral agreement with Turkey.
03:01And then you're seeing him flex diplomatic and relief muscle in Syria.
03:09So it appears that Saudi Arabia is on a trajectory to place itself on a map
03:12where it becomes the dominant power in the region in the wake of the Iran war.
03:16But this also comes as the Ansarullah Houthis are attacking the Saudi-backed government in Yemen.
03:23Now, is there a danger here that Pakistan, Turkey will be dragged into a war with Yemen?
03:29And is that actually part of the strategy?
03:32Well, Pakistan has been in this defence pact with Saudi Arabia back in 2014
03:37when this offensive against Ansarullah Houthis started in Yemen.
03:41Pakistan said that we will be with you.
03:42If there is any act of aggression against Saudi Arabia, we'll stand with you and respond.
03:47But we will not send our forces into Yemen.
03:49And I think that's where the Pakistanis stand.
03:51And that risk of Pakistan or Turkey getting embroiled in this war has existed since February.
03:57I think you have to give credit to the wisdom that has been shown by various leaders here
04:02that they did not let it escalate beyond a certain point.
04:05It remained a conflict between the Americans, the American bases, the Iranians and the Israelis.
04:11Yes, of course, there is a risk because Bab el-Mandeb is going to be that litmus test
04:16because the Pakistanis will obviously have to come in if the Saudis feel the pressure there,
04:20if the Houthis continue to choke it.
04:23And then what we're seeing is a strategy, again, playing out what we've seen in the last decade,
04:27where the Saudi-backed government pushes the Houthis from their positions,
04:30from ports like Hodeidah, on places like Taiz.
04:33And then it pushes them back.
04:35And then there is an agreement, whether it's about trade or relaxing some sanctions on the Houthis,
04:41that the Saudis will try and use their economic power to subdue the Houthis
04:45and the Pakistanis will provide them security in Bab el-Mandeb.
04:48Let's talk about Bab el-Mandeb because there was this 14-nation coalition meeting
04:52that took place for security specifically on Bab el-Mandeb, effectively trying to get it open.
04:58Is there a scenario here where we see the Pakistani navy sailing into Bab el-Mandeb to keep it open?
05:04Is that the kind of level of strategy we're talking about?
05:08Well, I think the Pakistani navy is already doing those rounds.
05:10The Pakistani navy has been going in.
05:12Some of the few tankers, whether it's Qatari LNG or Saudi Petroleum,
05:17has been able to come out waving the Pakistani flag,
05:19whether it's coming through the Strait of Hormuz with the Iranians,
05:23agreements between the Pakistanis, the Saudis and the Iranians.
05:26And similarly, Bab el-Mandeb as well,
05:29because these two are essentially the chokeholds that Iran has or Iran-backed groups have.
05:34To pressure the Gulf and to push the Americans into a deal.
05:39And I think there is growing consensus and increasing voices from the Gulf as well,
05:43that rather than pushing more, putting more pressure on Iran,
05:46they now need to talk to the Americans as well,
05:48because the status of the Strait of Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb
05:50is not going to go back to what it was before the war.
05:53And that is why the leverage that the Americans have is economic rather than military.
05:57And more you push the Iranians on the military front,
06:00the more you attack them, the more they're going to retaliate on these targets,
06:03the soft targets in the Gulf countries.
06:05And that's what they don't want.
06:06And they want this to also become a deterrent to not just stop Iran,
06:11but any other forces that would attack Saudi, Pakistan or Turkey.
06:15Let's talk about America, because that's a crucial thing here.
06:18I've had several military analysts that have been telling me
06:20a defence pact without America can only go so far.
06:23But this is a reshaping of the Arab world, the Muslim world,
06:28taking responsibility for security itself, or is it?
06:33Well, I think you'll have to look at it from the American perspective.
06:36If you look at it from the Israeli prism, this will be a red flag,
06:40because any coherence between Muslim countries coming together,
06:45where Israel remains a dominant threat in the region,
06:48is going to be seen with caution.
06:50But if you look at it from the American perspective,
06:52the region taking the reins of its own security,
06:55the region not relying on America while buying American weapons,
06:58while buying American technology,
07:00while President Erdogan inviting Donald Trump to the NATO summit,
07:04while Pakistani military chief and the army chief going to the White House
07:08and telling them that they have investment opportunities in minerals,
07:11when the Saudi crown prince investing billions and hundreds of billions of dollars
07:15in Saudi Arabia is going to be a good sign for the Americans.
07:18They get the benefits without flexing their military muscle
07:21or depleting their munitions, as we've seen in the Iran war.
07:24So it will all depend on which prism you look at it from.
07:27But obviously, this cements, right after the meeting by the Arab Gulf countries on Jerusalem,
07:35cements the fact that Israel is seen as a major threat of destabilization,
07:39but also provides them an avenue that they can tell Iran as well,
07:44that they are not standing alone and the entire region is standing behind them.
07:47But in many ways, it's the Americans that have, like, reshaped this security arrangement
07:53because Donald Trump has been very public about this.
07:55Arsene Manir is his favourite field general, Pakistani general.
07:59Erdogan has a very good relationship, both leaders, say, with Donald Trump.
08:03And then you've got the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman,
08:06who is buying, as you say, American weaponry.
08:09So there's already a, like, good relationship with America.
08:14So the question is, why do this now, if you've got that kind of relationship?
08:19Well, I think it is because of necessity, not because of willingness.
08:24What you've seen in the Iran war is that whether it was the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
08:30the kind of defence that the Americans had promised did not match the kind of defence
08:35that the Americans had promised the state of Israel.
08:36They were able to inflict a lot of damage.
08:39And that is why you saw Saudi Arabia do a defence pact with the Ukrainians on drone technology
08:44because the American systems were not able to stop everything incoming from Iran.
08:48They need cheap, robust security solutions,
08:51which the Turks and the Pakistanis are able to provide for their own defence purposes.
08:56They also need to tell the Americans that they are a partner that they can rely on,
09:00but also to a certain extent.
09:01Yes, this was the security guarantee that was in the region for the last few decades
09:05because of US presence in the region.
09:07But this Iran war that was a war of choice by the United States proved that the United States
09:12cannot give the same security guarantees that it gives Israel to this region.
09:16And this region had to rethink, not just in terms of defence and security,
09:19but also economics, also strategic partnerships in terms of energy security,
09:23and also manpower, where a lot of it comes from these countries, including Turkey and Pakistan.
09:28We've also got NATO here. Turkey is a NATO member.
09:32So if this defence statement is to be taken literally,
09:36an attack on one is an attack on all.
09:38That's what the Pakistanis have said.
09:40So if there's an attack on Turkey, that's also Article 5 potentially of the NATO Security Pack,
09:47which is the same.
09:48An attack on one is an attack on us all.
09:51Is this better for regional security?
09:54Because will NATO get involved?
09:56I mean, there's so many questions here, right?
09:57Absolutely. And I think I was speaking to a few people who were close to these agreements,
10:03because this is not the only agreement that the Pakistanis have signed.
10:06They've signed one with the Kuwaitis.
10:08They've got a similar in the works with the Qataris.
10:12They've signed it with Saudi Arabia.
10:14This essentially gives them the provision of NATO without the bureaucracy of NATO.
10:19This does not mean that immediately you saw that being tested last year,
10:24that after the defence agreement, there was an attack by India on Pakistan.
10:28The Saudis did not directly get involved.
10:29You've also seen that the Yemenis have attacked Saudi Arabia.
10:32Pakistanis did not immediately get involved.
10:34So it does give them that provision.
10:36It does give them that deterrence against potential aggressors.
10:39But I don't think that this immediately starts a war between countries.
10:43I think the idea here is that mutual cooperation, defence collaboration,
10:50building defences and structural defences and deterrent,
10:54rather than flexing their muscles in the battlefield.
10:57As one general just told me, that a general responsibility is not to win the war,
11:02but to avoid it in the first place.
11:03But we are at a stage now where there is a reshaping of the security agreements
11:10that were traditional, that were relied on America,
11:13that aren't relying on America, but are relying on American weaponry.
11:18So there's a danger here that the political winds in America change.
11:23It's going to be the weapons that will go first.
11:27China and Pakistan have a great defence agreement,
11:31long-standing defence agreement, fighter jets, etc., etc., etc.
11:36Does this play into it at all?
11:38I think you're seeing a changing world post the Second World War.
11:42If you look at the timeline starting from Gaza,
11:45the breakdown of the international rules-based order,
11:48to the war in Iran where the Americans were not able to fulfil
11:51all the promises that they'd made to the Gulf countries.
11:54Pakistan and Turkey have come into play in this.
11:55I've been in the battlefields where these weapons have been tested,
11:58whether it was Armenia and Azerbaijan,
12:00whether it was the front lines between Pakistan and Afghanistan,
12:04some weapons used against Iran a couple of years ago as well.
12:07So what the Pakistanis, the Chinese, the Turks are providing
12:10are reliable weaponry, which is not as expensive
12:14or does not come with as many ties attached to the Americans.
12:18But still, the world, the Saudis, the Pakistanis, the Turks,
12:21they're not able to wean off from the American weaponry.
12:24You saw in the NATO summit,
12:25the Turks are still asking for American engines to power their Khan jets.
12:30You are seeing the Pakistanis are still asking for American technology
12:33to be able to increase their prowess both in maritime affairs and in the air.
12:38And you're seeing the F-35s now in Saudi Arabia,
12:41which is an integral part of their defences.
12:43But that does not mean that it is a one-party defence.
12:46You're seeing the Ukrainians becoming involved.
12:48You're seeing indirectly the Chinese getting involved,
12:50Pakistanis and Turks.
12:51It is indigenous technology that is going to be built
12:54inside these countries for their own defences.
12:57Finally, is this an anti-Iranian defence pact?
13:02I don't think that it will be right to call it that
13:08because obviously some hawks in Iran are going to see it
13:12as an anti-Iranian Sunni pact.
13:14The hawks in Israel are going to see it as a Muslim pact,
13:18Muslim countries coming together against Israel.
13:20But this is essentially regional powers
13:23realising what the threat matrix is,
13:25realising where the loopholes in their regional security are
13:29and making sure that essentially the tools that they have
13:32work best when they join them.
13:35Pakistan has made it clear that its relationship
13:37between China and Saudi Arabia is paramount
13:39against any other relationship that it has.
13:42But it does enjoy neighbourly relations with Iran
13:44and is the main mediator when it comes to the talks
13:48that are happening between Iran and the United States.
13:51So it appears that this can be painted in whatever brush
13:55looking like from whatever prism,
13:57but from the perspective of these three countries,
13:59it's a very regional, local pact
14:01which provides them security that they desperately need
14:03in times of uncertainty.
14:05Thank you for helping us unpack all of that.
14:08Stay there.
14:09We are now going to go to Rasul Sadar,
14:11who's live for us in the Turkish capital, Ankara.
14:15I haven't seen the actual defence pact agreement.
14:20I don't think many people have.
14:22But there is a statement, Rasul,
14:24that you can just walk us through.
14:26What's the statement say?
14:31Well, so now, what we know,
14:33the most important clause of the agreement
14:36is directly about the defence,
14:38and it is very much similar to NATO's Article 5.
14:42So, an attack on any of these three countries,
14:46namely Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey,
14:49will be regarded as an attack on all.
14:53And that will stipulate the answer
14:56and the coordinated response of these three countries.
15:01This is quite bold.
15:02This is quite assertive.
15:04Now, we're seeing that the three big countries
15:08in the region, they're coming together
15:10and signing a defence pact
15:13that is extremely bold, assertive, and also binding.
15:17So, in that sense,
15:19many here are defining this Mecca agreement,
15:22Mecca defence pact as a defining moment for the region.
15:28Of course, it has been just minutes that has been signed.
15:32It hasn't been tested yet.
15:34But in any way,
15:36so many people are regarding this as a pivotal moment.
15:39So, indeed, when you look at these three countries,
15:42so Saudi Arabia as an economic powerhouse,
15:45so it will bring the finance in.
15:48And then Turkey as the second largest army of the NATO
15:52and with its very sophisticated and advanced drone technology
15:57and robust domestic defence industry.
16:01And then you have Pakistan,
16:03the only nuclear power in the Islamic world.
16:06And so, these three countries are complementary to each other.
16:10And they're coming together and signing this quite important pact
16:14in a very symbolic way,
16:16in the holy city of Islam,
16:19in Mecca,
16:20on a day of Friday.
16:22So, the symbolism is there.
16:24Practicality is there.
16:26All the efforts are there.
16:27And the heads of the government
16:29and the states are all there
16:32with highest level of the delegations attending,
16:36joining the ceremony by three countries.
16:39So, what has happened?
16:41According to officials that they have been talking to
16:44here in the capital of Turkey, in Ankara,
16:47they said the regional developments
16:50have indeed forced these countries to come together.
16:54So, post-October 7th has changed the region dramatically
16:58and Israeli actions and expansionism.
17:01And then now the crisis in Strait of Hormuz
17:04and ongoing attacks on Iran
17:06and Iran's response on the regional countries.
17:09So, there have been several layers of the necessity
17:12converging and forcing these three big countries
17:15to come together and to sign this binding agreement.
17:19So, now the question is
17:22whether in the coming months or years or weeks
17:25there will be some other regional countries
17:27joining this defense pact or not.
17:29I have asked that to one of the Turkish officials here
17:32and he said that so, for now,
17:35there's no such a plan,
17:37but the other regional countries,
17:39such as Qatar, such as Egypt,
17:41and such as the other countries in the region
17:43should join this defense pact.
17:46And they said they are open to receive more and more countries
17:50to make it a regional alliance
17:53and, of course, to build a deterrence
17:56and also bring the stability
17:57because indeed this, as of now,
17:59it is exclusively about defense.
18:01However, so there are the expectations
18:04that these integrated defense policies
18:06are going to also enhance the diplomatic relations as well
18:10and integrated diplomatic efforts in case of a crisis.
18:14So, it's also going to be quickly responding
18:17to the diplomatic crisis,
18:18the security crisis in the region.
18:21But, as I said,
18:22many here in the capital of Turkey,
18:25they are saying that this is a defining,
18:28historic, pivotal moment for the region.
18:31But, Rasul, are there any critics of this deal
18:35in Ankara, the political capital of Turkey?
18:38There surely must be some dissenting voices
18:41that Saudi Arabia and now Turkey
18:44and Pakistan are joint at the hip.
18:51Well, Luke, it has been a long period
18:54of preparation for that.
18:56Just remember, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt,
18:59their foreign ministers,
19:01the heads of the government,
19:03several times they have met
19:07in several other capitals,
19:09in Ankara, in Islamabad, in Cairo, in Riyadh.
19:12And as a result of that,
19:13now the leaders are there
19:14and they have just signed the agreement.
19:17So, the criticism in Turkey,
19:19I wouldn't say it's criticism,
19:20however, there are question marks here.
19:22And I was just talking to
19:24one of the opposition figures here.
19:26So, he was concerned that this deal
19:30could somehow drag Ankara
19:32into a fight between Saudi Arabia
19:36and the Ansarullah Houthis in Yemen,
19:40or this could somehow drag Turkey
19:43in the rising tensions
19:45between Riyadh and Tehran.
19:48So, many here are indeed
19:51altering these concerns,
19:53whether by signing this agreement,
19:55which is binding agreement.
19:56This is very much similar
19:58to Article 5 of NATO.
20:01So, an attack on one of these members
20:03is going to be regarded
20:05as an attack on all.
20:06And now the questions are,
20:08in case if Iran, for example,
20:11fires missiles or drones or rockets
20:13on Saudi Arabia,
20:15or the Houthis attack Saudi Arabia,
20:17then, is Turkey being involved
20:19in a response, in a retaliation?
20:22Is that going to be dragged
20:23in the war or not?
20:24These are the question marks
20:26that here people are concerned about.
20:30However, the overall mood in Ankara
20:33is that now, more and more,
20:37the regional countries
20:38are coming into an arena
20:40of the strategic independence
20:42and also building up
20:44the regional initiatives
20:45for the regional problems.
20:49Results say that.
20:49We may well come back to you
20:51as we get...