00:00The National Intelligence Service has released an analysis on Kim Joo-ae, the daughter of Kim Jong-un.
00:03They assess that Kim Joo-ae seems to have become Kim Jong-un's successor.
00:06North Korea is now in a situation where it is trying to go beyond a third generation hereditary succession to
00:09a fourth generation one.
00:10Let's take a closer look at the situation where Kim Joo-ae has effectively become Kim Jong-un's successor.
00:14Let's take a look right now.
00:15On April 6th, the National Intelligence Service told the National Assembly that Kim Joo-ae, Kim Jong-un's daughter,
00:20was recently seen operating a new main battle tank echoing Kim Jong-un's actions as successor.
00:25At an April 6th closed session of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee,
00:29the National Intelligence Service said the tank driving scene aimed to showcase her exceptional military skills.
00:34Recently, Kim Joo-ae has mostly appeared in the defense sector, which is seen as accelerating her successor narrative.
00:42North Korea is more conservative than South Korea, so there's been strong skepticism about a female successor.
00:47Her frequent appearances in the defense sector are reducing skepticism and speeding up the successor narrative according to the National
00:54Intelligence Service.
00:55Kim Joo-ae has even been seen driving a tank with Kim Jong-un on it.
01:01She was seen aiming and firing a sniper rifle at an outdoor range.
01:04In addition, the National Intelligence Service has determined that Kim Joo-ae is entering the stage of being designated as
01:09a successor,
01:10as her role has been actively strengthened by going directly to the field, listening to and resolving difficulties,
01:14and expressing opinions on implementing policies.
01:17In particular, members of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee who received the NIS report noted that previous reports referred to
01:23Kim Joo-ae as a leader,
01:24but this time used the term female successor, indicating that the NIS's evaluation of Kim Joo-ae is continuously rising.
01:30Kim Yo-jong also needs to be watched closely.
01:33Kim Yo-jong has re-entered the party's Politburo.
01:36This is her return after five years.
01:37Since she was removed as a candidate member at the Eighth Party Congress in 2021,
01:41she has also been promoted to the head of the party's General Affairs Department.
01:44The NIS expects Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un's closest confidant,
01:49to keep overseeing his directives and act as spokesperson at major events.
01:52However, the main issue right now is Kim Joo-ae's age.
01:55Currently, she was born in 2013, which makes her equivalent to a first-year middle school student by South Korean
01:59standards.
01:59In North Korean history, there has never been a case where someone this young has been virtually designated as a
02:03successor.
02:03So right now, there is a common question being raised among intelligence agencies and experts.
02:08Why are they rushing this much?
02:09To understand this question, we need to look at past cases.
02:12Kim Jong-un also rose to the position of successor very quickly.
02:15After Kim Jong-il's health rapidly deteriorated following a stroke,
02:18Kim Jong-un, who was in his mid-20s at the time,
02:20was officially designated as the successor in what was essentially an emergency move.
02:24At that time, there were many assessments that the internal preparations were not perfect,
02:28but the current situation seems even more urgent than that.
02:31It's because of Kim Jong-un's health condition.
02:33He currently weighs over 140 kilograms and, besides severe obesity,
02:37also smokes, drinks, and has high blood pressure and cardiovascular disease.
02:42According to medical experts, he is at significant risk of acute heart disease or cerebrovascular problems.
02:47Rumors about his health persist since he's often seen out of breath and with noticeable body changes in public.
02:54Here, a leader's priority should be preparing for a power succession, but the main issue is how quickly it happens.
02:59Putting someone forward before they're old enough to understand power is more than symbolic.
03:05North Korea is now building legitimacy while training a successor.
03:09This is also why they reveal participation in military training, shooting, and operating tanks.
03:14They are trying to forcibly instill the image of a leader in a short period of time.
03:17In this situation, the biggest risk emerges.
03:20If Kim Jong-un were to suddenly die unexpectedly, the question is whether a leader in their early teens could
03:25handle that power vacuum.
03:27The internal elite, especially the military, are unlikely to accept this, so a regency system would likely emerge.
03:34Kim Jue would be the official leader, but real power would be shared by key figures around her, sharply increasing
03:39the risk of a power struggle.
03:41A competition for influence may arise among the military, the party, and key figures such as Kim Yo-jong.
03:46Kim Yo-jong already has experience and a power base, so she could potentially become the center of power depending
03:52on the situation.
03:54However, according to the National Intelligence Service, they believe that Kim Yo-jong does not have real power at the
03:59moment.
03:59If Kim Jong-un dies and Kim Joo-ae comes to power, it's assumed that there will be a purge,
04:04just like when Kim Jong-un first took power,
04:06and some analysts are saying that Kim Yo-jong could also die during this time.
04:10Like Kim Jong-un killing his uncle by marriage, Jang Song-taek with an anti-aircraft gun to tighten his
04:16grip on power, he may use similar fear tactics.
04:18The main issue is North Korea's absolute power structure. If the center is unstable, the entire system is affected.
04:24The moment a young leader remains only as a symbolic figure and real power is dispersed, cracks can start to
04:29form within the system.
04:30And while these cracks may not be visible from the outside, they tend to spread very quickly on the inside.
04:35There's an even more important point in what I mentioned.
04:38It's the fact that the structure of North Korean society itself is very conservative, especially as you get closer to
04:43the core of power, this tendency becomes even stronger.
04:45Most military and senior party members are elderly male elites who have spent decades in a male-dominated power structure.
04:53It's unlikely that such a group would naturally accept a teenage female leader.
04:57Looking at North Korea's current actions, it shows that they are aware of this instability themselves.
05:02Most of Kim Joo-ae's public appearances involve military events, such as watching missile launches, joining shooting drills, riding tanks,
05:08and appearing with military officials, all aimed at portraying her as a commander-in-chief.
05:13This isn't just simple exposure, it's a carefully designed production.
05:16It's an attempt to forcibly instill the perception that she is someone who can control the military.
05:20The core of this strategy is just one thing.
05:22The focus is on internalizing that it's about power, not gender.
05:26Before her being a woman sparks controversy, they're projecting her as a military authority and leader.
05:31Kim Jong-un once faced doubts over his youth and inexperience, but he quickly gained control by inspecting military units
05:37and projecting toughness.
05:39The same method is being used with Kim Joo, but internal resistance is still possible.
05:43The North Korean military is more than an organization, it's a key pillar of power.
05:47High-ranking officers, shaped during Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il's eras, carry a succession mindset rooted in the
05:53revolution's first generation.
05:54They might view a teenage female leader as an issue tied to the regime's legitimacy.
05:59Despite outward loyalty, they may think differently.
06:02Going forward we should watch for two things, starting with the military's real response.
06:07There may be subtle signals in their behavior at public events, personnel changes, and the process of power restructuring.
06:12The other thing to watch is the frequency of Kim Joo-ae's appearances and changes in her role.
06:16If she starts giving instructions or making policy statements instead of just attending events, it signals a real shift in
06:23internal power.
06:24We'll see how this develops.
06:25Once North Korea finalizes the succession structure, the next step is always to change personnel.
06:30Based on the moves we've seen so far, it's highly likely that in the coming years they will systematically place
06:35people who are loyal to Kim Joo-ae in key positions.
06:37It's not just about appointing people based on ability, but rather filling key positions mainly with those whose loyalty has
06:43already been verified.
06:44This process does not happen quietly.
06:46With personnel transfers, promotions, and changes in positions happening continuously, it's highly likely that the faces at the core of
06:52power will change rapidly.
06:54Officials in key power centers, such as the party's organizational leadership, the military's general political bureau, and top state bodies
07:00may be replaced or reassigned.
07:02Those in these positions share a common trait. Their loyalty to someone outweighs their personal abilities.
07:08Since Kim Jong-un could die unexpectedly, they're appointing people who would protect Kim Joo-ae if that happens.
07:14If the existing elites formed under Kim Jong-un's regime remain in place during the power succession, there could be
07:20moves for a power struggle, so they're eliminating that option altogether.
07:23They're creating a structure where the core of power itself has no other options.
07:27And there's one scenario that's even more concerning here.
07:29If a Kim Joo-ae regime takes shape, there's a possibility that the politics of fear will become even stronger.
07:35This isn't just a guess, it's a well-founded analysis.
07:39Kim Joo-ae has grown up witnessing extreme power up close since birth.
07:43Since Kim Jong-un took power, North Korea has seen repeated high-level purges, public executions, and strict control policies.
07:50If she has been exposed to this kind of environment naturally since childhood, it's highly likely that she has come
07:54to accept these methods themselves as normal means of governance.
07:58In fact, within North Korea's power structure, every single action in front of the leader is directly linked to survival.
08:03She grew up in an environment where much older officials would bow their heads, speak with extreme caution, and be
08:08punished for even the smallest mistake.
08:10A leader who grows up in this kind of atmosphere inevitably becomes psychologically accustomed to controlling through fear.
08:16The problem is, this tendency can be even stronger in the early stages of their rule.
08:20Inexperienced leaders usually have weaker power bases, so they often rely on strict control and punishment to compensate.
08:27They may also deliberately send out tough messages to quickly boost internal loyalty.
08:31Especially if the military or party elites are not fully under control, rule by fear can be the most immediate
08:37means of control.
08:38In addition, instability tied to youth could also be a factor.
08:41If someone gains power without much political experience, they may overreact to perceived threats or even minor resistance.
08:48In this situation, the scope of purges may widen or power consolidation may happen more quickly than expected.
08:54If this happens, North Korea could become strongly unified in a short period, or at the same time, tensions could
08:59rise to an extreme level.
09:01As loyalty competitions intensify and distrust grows, the power structure will likely become more unstable.
09:06So the current concern is not simply that things will get stronger, but that the very methods of control could
09:11become rougher and more unpredictable.
09:13The next challenge is about the third round.
09:13The third round, C-4CC standing nikin 얼마—
09:13Op!
09:14You
Comments