00:00Mark, we're all poring over details of SoftBank numbers.
00:02We had Sandisk numbers overnight that were a bit negative.
00:05Have we learned in the last 24 hours anything useful and new around the tech trade, the AI trade?
00:10Is that where the market's focus is?
00:14I mean, the AI trade is always the most important thing in markets right now.
00:19I'm not sure if we've learned anything massively new.
00:22I think SoftBank is always going to be at the more concerning leveraged kind of end of that kind of
00:27AI,
00:28you know, circular debt spectrum, as Neil outlined there.
00:32So I'm not sure it's kind of incrementally moved us on much.
00:35I will say that the price action is still a little bit negative.
00:39And we but, you know, it's part of this overall kind of trend that we've seen that for about 15
00:45months until about maybe two months ago,
00:48you know, is buy everything AI.
00:49And now we're really discerning much more which part of the AI trade to trade at different times.
00:55It's becoming much more of a micro bottom up needing to know exactly what companies do
01:00and differentiating between the various parts of the AI segment.
01:04And what's the bar for the geopolitical story to become the top headline then, Mark?
01:09Because we're waiting for more news on this deal between Oman and Iran.
01:14It seems like Washington was kind of left out of it.
01:17What point does geopolitics really matter again?
01:22If there's a material escalation, ultimately, you know, that will that will kind of dominate everything,
01:30you know, for a brief period of time.
01:32If it happens, people are kind of pretty cynical about any kind of deal,
01:37given all the number of promises we've had before.
01:40On the flip side, I don't think people really expect, you know, material escalation ahead of the midterms.
01:46So we're like a little bit probably going to this kind of status quo of not having exact clarity,
01:50but not getting much worse.
01:51I think as long as that's the case, it'll only ever kind of dominate very briefly before we go back
01:57to the AI trade.
01:58But as I said, if we get if we get a proper U.S. escalation, well, then that's a whole
02:02different story.
02:04And gold can sometimes move around with some of that geopolitics as well, Mark.
02:08But often it's just a play on the Fed.
02:10So what are you seeing behind the moves we've got in gold recently?
02:15Yeah, I would say gold's probably been the biggest topic of debate in my team the last 24 hours.
02:20We had this sudden 4% surge yesterday, which just seemed completely out of line with almost everything else
02:25that was kind of happening on the day and with recent price action,
02:29where it's kind of not really moved in weeks, despite the volatility elsewhere.
02:32Now, there must have been some flow behind that.
02:35But I think it's extraordinarily interesting with the with the disclaimer that the short term volatility
02:39the last five weeks has made all short term trading a bit erratic and hard.
02:43And as we've mentioned, there's the U.S.-Iran risk.
02:45I think that this move fundamentally makes sense.
02:48I was someone who turned bearish gold at the start of the war.
02:51I have been bearish now until this flow.
02:53I now see this as a valid move higher and maybe the start of the bull trend reasserting.
02:57That's because the Fed last week undermined the Fed's credibility at the margin,
03:01which means lower real yields expected in the future.
03:04But also, that was a blow to the dollar.
03:07And ultimately, longer term, gold has just traded off dollar and real yields.
03:12And if both of them are going to be lower, gold will be higher.
Comments