00:00Recently, China has been issuing very strong warnings to the Philippines,
00:03saying that it could launch a direct strike.
00:05Tensions between China and the Philippines seem to be escalating.
00:08Today, let's take a closer look at this situation.
00:10Let's get right into it.
00:11First, let's take a look at what China actually said.
00:13On August 2nd, the Liberation Army Daily,
00:16the official publication of the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party,
00:19issued a stern warning to forces trying to stir up trouble and unrest in the South China Sea.
00:24They stated that when it comes to safeguarding peace and stability in the South China Sea,
00:27China has abundant and powerful means of response.
00:30At the same time, they included a warning message that any sinister schemes that harm China's sovereignty,
00:35security, and development interests will face a resolute response and direct strike.
00:39This is how they ended up saying they could launch a direct strike against the Philippines.
00:43So why is China making such sensitive remarks?
00:46This is clear from the report's timing,
00:48which followed China's joint naval and military exercise near Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
00:54On August 1st, the Chinese government made Scarborough Shoal a nature reserve
00:58and announced regulations for managing it, including these methods.
01:02As you may know, it seems that they are gradually creating regulations
01:05and strengthening their training with the intention of taking over the entire South China Sea.
01:10The conflict between the Philippines and China continues,
01:13with the Chinese Coast Guard recently attacking the Philippine military.
01:17At that time, the Chinese Coast Guard armed with batons approached the 2nd Thomas Shoal
01:21where the Philippine military was stationed.
01:23Suddenly, the Chinese Coast Guard armed with batons attacked the Philippine soldiers.
01:27Although this incident did not escalate into a gunfight or cannon fire,
01:31it is being evaluated as a very serious case of non-lethal actions during maritime clashes.
01:36The Philippine Department of Defense defined this incident not as an accidental clash,
01:40but as a continuation of the coercive actions that the Chinese Coast Guard has repeatedly carried out.
01:44In particular, they criticized the Chinese Coast Guard
01:47for operating in the form of a law enforcement agency rather than a military force,
01:51while in reality trying to restrict the Philippines' maritime activities.
01:55They stressed they were performing routine duties in waters where they have rights under international law
01:59and said China's actions violate both international law and freedom of navigation.
02:04The Philippine government pointed out that these actions further undermine mutual trust
02:08between the two countries' militaries and increase regional tensions.
02:10On the other hand, China repeatedly insisted that the responsibility for the incident
02:14lies with the Philippines.
02:15The China Coast Guard said Philippine vessels and personnel approached dangerously,
02:19ignored warnings, and used force first while interfering with Chinese law enforcement.
02:24The Chinese side stated that Philippine personnel attacked the China Coast Guard
02:27using oars and long sticks, and that the officers on the scene
02:30took necessary countermeasures in response.
02:33They claimed the Philippines is misleading the international community
02:35by editing or selectively releasing incident footage,
02:38and demanded an end to spreading propaganda that distorts facts.
02:41As the claims of both sides directly contradict each other,
02:44this clash has become an incident that not only intensifies diplomatic tensions
02:48over the South China Sea, but also draws the attention of the international community.
02:52China pressured the Philippines by threatening a direct strike.
02:55In response, the Philippines recently submitted a map of the Scarborough Shoal
02:59territorial sea baselines to the United Nations.
03:02The Philippine government said this clarifies its maritime rights under the United Nations Convention
03:07on the Law of the Sea, but China protested, calling it illegal and invalid.
03:11As I mentioned earlier, China recently held large-scale military drills near Scarborough Shoal,
03:16increasing its military presence in the South China Sea.
03:19The Southern Theater Command of the Chinese military said this exercise responds to the
03:23situation in the South China Sea and actions by some regional countries.
03:28They stated these countries are undermining regional peace and stability,
03:32making a response necessary.
03:34The exercise aims to improve their ability to defend national sovereignty and maritime rights.
03:39They also emphasized that this exercise was conducted in a way that simulated an actual
03:44conflict situation, focusing on joint training to carry out operations simultaneously at sea
03:48and in the air.
03:49According to the information released, the Chinese military operated reconnaissance and early warning
03:53systems and conducted training to monitor the surrounding waters and the air in real time.
03:58They went on to check their maritime and aerial control capabilities, as well as test their
04:02ability to conduct joint strike operations and coordinated operations between the Navy and
04:07Air Force.
04:07They explained that they verified integrated operational procedures where all forces are deployed
04:11simultaneously and checked the command system to ensure a swift response even in actual
04:16conflict situations.
04:17The Chinese military stated that through these exercises, they focused on improving their operational
04:21capabilities in various situations and increasing their response speed on the ground.
04:25The Chinese Coast Guard held a separate law enforcement drill near Scarborough Shoal at the same time.
04:31This exercise included not only inspection and seizure procedures for suspicious vessels,
04:35but also training to block the entry of foreign ships and even scenarios involving the forced
04:39towing of vessels.
04:40The Chinese Coast Guard explained that these exercises are aimed at strengthening their law
04:44enforcement capabilities to protect what they claim as their territorial waters, jurisdiction,
04:49and maritime rights and interests.
04:51With military drills and Coast Guard exercises taking place at the same time, some are assessing
04:55that China may be trying to expand its influence in the South China Sea by simultaneously utilizing
04:59both military power and law enforcement capabilities.
05:02In addition, the Chinese government strongly objected to the Philippines submitting a map related
05:06to the baselines of its territorial waters around Scarborough Shoal to the United Nations.
05:10China claimed that this action is an illegal act that cannot be recognized under international
05:14law and has no effect.
05:16Furthermore, China pressured the Philippines to immediately withdraw the related measures,
05:20saying that the Philippines is trying to strengthen its territorial claims in a unilateral manner.
05:24As military exercises and diplomatic protests continue simultaneously, tensions between the two
05:29countries over Scarborough Shoal are rising on both military and diplomatic fronts.
05:33In response, the Philippines is also taking a tough stance.
05:35President Marcos of the Philippines made it clear both domestically and internationally in
05:40his State of the Nation Address that he intends to uphold the 2016 International Arbitration
05:44Tribunal's ruling that denies China's claims to the South China Sea.
05:48President Marcos of the Philippines said the Arbitration Tribunal's ruling is binding and
05:52sets the standard for interpreting and applying the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law
05:57of the Sea.
05:57He also said that the Philippine government will take all necessary measures to uphold the ruling
06:02on maritime law and will use all peaceful and legal means to counter any domestic or foreign
06:07attempts to undermine it.
06:09He also referred to China as a conqueror, saying that we will not yield to conquerors.
06:14In addition, the Philippines has also conducted exercises in the South China Sea region in
06:18cooperation with the United States and Japan.
06:20The Philippine government stated that this exercise demonstrates the ongoing partnership
06:24among the participants and the Philippines' commitment to freedom of navigation and overflight,
06:28and that the Philippines has deterred and restrained illegal, coercive, and aggressive activities
06:33in the South China Sea.
06:34Naturally, China strongly pressured the Philippines, saying not to involve outside countries.
06:38The United States is currently observing the situation and supporting the Philippines.
06:42The United States and the Philippines maintain the Mutual Defense Treaty signed in 1951.
06:47This treaty provides the basis for both countries to respond jointly if the Philippine military,
06:51public vessels, or aircraft are attacked by force in the Pacific region.
06:56The U.S. government has repeatedly stated that the Mutual Defense Treaty applies if Philippine
07:00public vessels or military forces come under armed attack in the South China Sea.
07:05For this reason, when China and the Philippines have a conflict, the United States monitors
07:09and adjusts its response.
07:11The United States is steadily increasing military ties with the Philippines.
07:15Under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, the U.S. military can use several Philippine bases
07:19on rotation, and both countries regularly hold large joint exercises.
07:24The U.S. military maintains a system where troops and equipment are deployed for a certain
07:27period and then rotated, and through this, they are establishing a system that allows for a quicker response
07:32to emergencies not only in the South China Sea, but also in surrounding areas such as the Taiwan
07:36Strait.
07:37A key reason is the United States' ongoing freedom of navigation operations in the South
07:41China Sea.
07:42The United States asserts that all countries have the right to freely navigate international
07:46waters under international law and will not accept any country's unilateral control over them.
07:52U.S. Navy warships and aircraft routinely conduct freedom of navigation operations in the
07:56South China Sea, exercising navigation rights under international law.
08:00China has protested, saying these operations violate its sovereignty, but the United States
08:05says they're routine military activities under international law.
08:08For this reason, if a conflict occurs between China and the Philippines in the South China
08:12Sea, it becomes not just an issue between the two countries, but an international security
08:16matter involving the interests of the United States as well.
08:19Looking ahead, there are several possible scenarios for how the situation in the South China Sea
08:23might unfold.
08:24First, there is a possibility that physical clashes between the Chinese Coast Guard and Philippine
08:27vessels could occur more frequently.
08:29So far, the standoff has mostly involved Coast Guard vessels, but if China increases maritime
08:34control and the Philippines keeps up supply missions and patrols, the risk of accidental
08:39clashes could rise.
08:40In particular, close approaches between vessels or the use of water cannons.
08:44If actions such as blocking entry are repeated, even small clashes could escalate
08:48into larger diplomatic conflicts.
08:49In addition, China may increase the scale and frequency of its military exercises in the
08:53South China Sea.
08:54China is already conducting exercises involving the Navy, Air Force, and Coast Guard together,
08:59checking its ability to respond to various situations.
09:01In the future, China could expand its exercises around specific waters or reveal new operational
09:06capabilities to put pressure on neighboring countries.
09:08The Philippines is also strengthening its military cooperation with allies such as the United
09:12States and Japan.
09:13So situations where both sides' military activities overlap may continue.
09:17There is also a possibility that the level of U.S. involvement could increase.
09:20Currently, the United States is closely monitoring the situation in the South China Sea based
09:24on its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, and maintains the position that it could respond
09:29if there is an armed attack on Philippine vessels or military forces.
09:33If clashes between China and the Philippines continue to the point where there are casualties,
09:37the United States may go beyond diplomatic warnings and strengthen additional military activities,
09:41such as selling various weapons to the Philippines or conducting joint exercises.
09:45The most concerning issue is the possibility of unintended armed conflict.
09:48Currently, both China and the Philippines are asserting their rights and refusing to back
09:52down in the area.
09:53In this situation, even if neither side intends to attack first, tensions can rise sharply due
09:58to ship collisions or during on-site responses.
10:00Especially in waters where the military, Coast Guard, and civilian vessels are all operating
10:04at the same time, even a small misjudgment could lead to a major crisis.
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