00:00Thank you very much.
00:48Thank you very much.
04:21bamboo in 1763 as
04:22the
04:22tenth sultan
04:23of the Ottoman Empire,
04:25which is present-day
04:26Turkey. During his more than forty
04:29-year reign, the geographical expansion and power
04:32of the empire
04:33reached their peak.
04:35Finally, the French cardinal and statesman, André Hercule de Fleury.
04:42But now let's listen to Frederick II himself in his Political Testament from 1768.
04:50Would it also be advisable for us to go to war while Russia is powerfully armed at our
04:58borders, and only waiting for the moment to act against us, which it could not do without
05:04being supported by English subsidies, and where a Field Marshal of this power would destroy
05:11all our plans right at the beginning of our operations? Under such circumstances there
05:19is nothing safer than maintaining peace and calmly waiting for new conditions. For these
05:25to then support our undertakings, Bestushev, that minister who rules like a czar but has
05:32sold himself to the court in Vienna, would first have to fall from favor. And after that,
05:39one would have to win over his successors through gifts. Furthermore, England would have to fall into
05:45the usual disputes that occur during a regency upon the death of its king. And it would require a
05:52Suleiman on the throne in Constantinople, as well as an ambitious and all-powerful prime minister in
06:00France. Only then, in such a situation, would it be time to act, even though it would not be necessary
06:08to be the first to appear on the stage. My opinion would be to let the warring parties fire their
06:16first
06:17shots, and not take up arms until the others have grown weary of fighting. That would pay off even
06:25better for us, since with such prudent behavior we would be at a greater advantage. And, since we do not
06:33have the means to finance a long war, we could endure the last three or four campaigns exactly according to
06:40the
06:40maxim of Cardinal de Fleury. He who keeps the last thaler in his pocket will be the master over his
06:49opponent. There are two kinds of wars, those fought out of vanity and those fought out of self-interest.
06:58Those who undertake wars of the first kind are to be called mad. To engage in those of the second
07:05kind,
07:05one must have taken the right measures, and should only make one's intentions and the goal one sets
07:13apparent when it is certain that it will lead to peace. Whoever reveals his plans too early brings
07:20them to failure, because he gives his enemies and rivals time to oppose them. Whoever knows how to keep
07:28silent can succeed in making good conquests, or at least avoid covering himself with shame if he is
07:36forced to make a less advantageous peace than he had hoped for. Perhaps you are now asking me what I
07:44would advise if all these changes I have foreseen come to pass. I am not presumptuous enough to give
07:51you advice for distant and uncertain situations. These circumstances are far too uncertain for me.
07:58to lay down exact rules of conduct for you to follow strictly. I will leave it at repeating what I
08:07have already told you in more detail earlier. Manage your finances wisely so that you have money when
08:15you need it. Only ally yourselves with those whose interests are exactly the same as yours. Never enter into
08:23treaties that require measures for distant contingencies. Wait until the time comes to take a position and
08:31then act accordingly. Above all, beware of relying on the number and honesty of your allies. Rely only on
08:40yourselves. Then you will never miscalculate. Consider your allies and your treaties only as makeshift solutions.
08:49When it comes to treaties, having too many is more harmful than helpful. Make fewer agreements,
08:55always at the right time, and in such a way that you gain the greatest benefit with the least risk.
09:02The politics of the petty princes is a web of lies and deceit. The politics of the powerful contain much
09:10shrewdness, skill at dissimulation, and a thirst for glory. A great mistake for a statesman is if he
09:18always behaves deceitfully. He will soon be seen through and despised. Sharp-minded people see
09:25through a consistent attitude. That's why you have to change your approach as often as you can.
09:32They conceal it by making the man appear sometimes lively, sometimes slow, sometimes warlike, and
09:38sometimes peace-loving. In this way, you mislead your enemies and make them cautious in everything they
09:46plan against you. It is not only good to display different behavior, but you must also adapt it to
09:53the events, the situation you are in, the time, the location, and the people you are dealing with.
10:02Never threaten your enemies with barking dogs that don't bite. Be courteous in your negotiations.
10:08Soften your language, whether it sounds proud or hurtful. Don't get too upset over minor disputes.
10:17Never indulge your own desire for fame. Do everything in the interest of the state. Be discreet in your
10:23affairs. Conceal your plans. If the honor of the state compels you to take up the sword, then let
10:31lightning and thunder strike your enemies as one. Treaties should only be broken for important reasons.
10:38You may be compelled to do so if you have reason to fear that your allies will make a separate
10:44peace,
10:45and you have the means and the time to act before them. Even if a lack of money prevents you
10:52from
10:52continuing the war, or if important proposals or advantages seem urgent to you. However, you can only
11:01make quick decisions of this kind once, at most twice, in your life. In any case, they are not
11:07what solutions you can resort to every day. Those were Frederick II's thoughts, and also his advice
11:16for his successors. Much of it was not followed by them, which not only dramatically changed the course
11:23of German history. But if you now translate what he said into our time, let your imagination run wild,
11:31and swap out a few political figures and terms, you can easily see that, in reality,
11:38nothing has changed on the world's political stage.
11:58I'll see you in the next one.
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