- 4 weeks ago
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00:00Great to see both of you, believe it or not, you too, Carol, here on this Monday afternoon.
00:05And it's nice to see Emily there, too.
00:06Yeah, Emily's there, too.
00:07I've been talking to Emily for the last hour.
00:09Yeah.
00:11What an interesting day.
00:12Kind of meh on the S&P if you look at the index movement.
00:15But go inside and you actually have a lot of names to the upside.
00:19I had a fair amount of gainers to choose from on this Monday.
00:22Okay, just three, Carol.
00:23Just three.
00:24No, there's more than three.
00:26Okay, I'm going to limit you to three.
00:29Well, how about if I'm talking a sector and I have like three or four?
00:33Here we go.
00:33Different story.
00:34I know the workarounds.
00:36There is some movement in the oil market today, and that's what I want to draw your attention to.
00:39Brent, down more than 9% today, still above $87 a barrel, but south of $100 a barrel, south of
00:45$90 a barrel.
00:46A little bit of a reprieve there.
00:48WTI down 8.3%, close to $82 a barrel, Emily.
00:52On potential peace deal in the Middle East, the president's been talking about it all day.
00:57Yeah, and yet the S&P 500 pretty much finishing the day unchained.
01:01Perhaps a sign that the focus is all on the mega-cap tech earnings that we'll see this week and
01:06the Fed meeting, and less so here on Geopolitics.
01:08It is going to be a busy week for earnings.
01:10As for today, not a whole lot.
01:12The biggest companies set to report is steelmaker Nucor.
01:15We're also going to hear from Universal Health as well as Applied Digital.
01:18But the real action, of course, will start on Tuesday and really heat up on Wednesday and Thursday.
01:24As for today, a mixed bag for the broad markets with the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the green.
01:29It's going to add about 250 points or a half a percent on the day.
01:32The S&P 500, which opened higher and then spent most of the day lower, looks like it's just going
01:37to barely close higher, up by 1.7413 and change.
01:41The NASDAQ Composite is going to finish in the red, down about two-tenths of a percent.
01:45Similar story for the NASDAQ 100, down three-tenths of a percent.
01:49But the S&P 400 mid-caps up about three-tenths of a percent, and the Russell 2000 small caps
01:55up six-tenths of a percent on the day.
01:57All right, so there's your overall look at the market trade here.
02:00Back to the S&P I go.
02:01As I mentioned earlier, 328 names.
02:04Emily, actually higher in the S&P 500 on this Monday, 175 to the downside.
02:09And taking a look here at just what sectors were outperforming, you can see consumer staples, communication services, financials in
02:17the green, information technology, that large red slice here.
02:22The sector down about one percent on the day, and you can see that reflected in how the NASDAQ 100
02:27ended the day as well.
02:29Energy and utilities also lower, of course, as we saw oil prices moving down today.
02:34All right, guys, let's go to some of the individual gainers.
02:36So as investors kind of moved away from semiconductors, they said, oh, let's check out those software application stocks today,
02:44application software stocks.
02:45So they did outperform.
02:47And just take a look at something like Workday.
02:49It was number one gainer in the S&P, I think number two in the NASDAQ 100, outperforming up about
02:55nine percent.
02:56Keep in mind, we know it's been under pressure, I think down about 30 percent year-to-date and a
03:00big percentage, about 14 percent of the float is short.
03:02But nonetheless, investors taking another look at that name.
03:06And then you had the iShares expanded tech software sector exchange traded ETF fund, excuse me, IGV is the ticker.
03:14And that one was up overall for the space, about three and one-third percent.
03:18Let's go on over to the meatpackers surging after the United States said it would resume cattle shipments from Mexico,
03:25easing a domestic shortage that has led to higher costs for their animals.
03:29And we've all seen that certainly play out at the supermarket.
03:32So Tyson was up 5.6 percent.
03:34Hormel was up almost 3 percent.
03:37You had JBS, really, some outperformance there, up more than 10 percent in today's session.
03:42And then you also had Pilgrim Pride.
03:43That was up about 1.8 percent.
03:45Remember, it was a year-long ban that was put in place to prevent the spread of New World screeworm.
03:51That was a parasitic fly that can kill cattle within days if left untreated.
03:54So that has certainly been on the meat market for a while here.
03:59Did I say meat market?
04:03All right.
04:04You know what I'm talking about.
04:05And let me go to FBRX is the ticker.
04:08Is it Fort or Forte Biosciences?
04:11Nobody knows.
04:11I don't know.
04:12You picked this, right?
04:13Yeah.
04:13I meant to call on the phone, and I forgot to do that.
04:17But this one, also some outperformance, jumping about 40 percent after Argenix agreed to acquire the biotech at $77 a
04:25share in cash, representing a total equity value of about $2.2 billion.
04:30Stock is up about 180 percent year-to-date, and so a little bit of deal flow.
04:34And I forgot.
04:35Did I forget to give you guys the ticker?
04:37Maybe.
04:38Anyway.
04:38I don't know.
04:39It was a now performer in today's session.
04:41All right.
04:41Let's go to some of the decliners.
04:43I want to start with shares of NVIDIA today.
04:45On a points basis, the worst performer in the S&P 500.
04:48Shares fell 5 percent.
04:50That accounted for 21 points to the downside in the S&P 500 today.
04:55This after investors are really trying to digest the $750 billion in deals that are reigniting these fears about circular
05:02funding when it comes to AI.
05:04So, for example, a $500 billion deal with SK Group, NVIDIA, and talks to backstop as much as $250 billion
05:11to help open AI,
05:12leased computing power from a U.S. data center project to finance $350 billion of open AI's purchases of its
05:18chips.
05:19So, that's happening.
05:20Investors are wondering, wait a second, what does this mean for just CapEx and for the investment happening in the
05:25AI industry?
05:26NVIDIA shares down about 5 percent today.
05:29Also, speaking of chips, ASM holdings, ASML, ADRs of this company fell by 5.8 percent.
05:39This is interesting.
05:40This after a report that a Chinese state-backed company has begun mass production of certain chip-making machines.
05:45It's a Shanghai-based company.
05:47It started making immersion-deep ultraviolet lithography tools.
05:51This cited on it if I've had people familiar with the matter.
05:53It's assembled development teams from other Chinese companies, sparked a decline in stock for chip equipment peers in Europe and
06:00the U.S.,
06:00including ASM International, BE Semiconductor Industries, Applied Materials, and LAM Research.
06:06And finally, given the decline in energy names and potentially something happening in the Strait of Hormuz and between the
06:13U.S. and Iran,
06:14watching what's happening with energy and with chemicals and fertilizers today,
06:18Venture Global fell by 10.4 percent.
06:21CF Industries on the fertilizer side fell by 4.2 percent.
06:25Any pickup in shipping through the Strait would ease disruption in those markets.
06:29Those shares fell as a result.
06:31All right.
06:32We want to take a quick look here at what's been going on in the yield space.
06:35Two straight sessions now where we've seen yields decline, though we should point out.
06:39They are significantly elevated from where they were just a couple of months ago.
06:434.318 on the two-year yield, your 10-year at four spots, six, four, and change.
06:48And, of course, that is the setup heading into that two-day Fed meeting, which begins on Tuesday.
06:53All right.
06:54Good stuff.
06:54Let's go to some stories that definitely are on our radar today.
06:58This one certainly caught our attention.
07:00Monthly ridership on the Long Island Railroad.
07:03Busiest commuter line here in the United States, surpassing pre-pandemic levels for the first time as a hectic New
07:09York City summer boosted trips.
07:11I know Romain takes the chauffeur in the helicopter when he goes from place to place, but us normal folks
07:18take public transit.
07:197.9 of us use the LIR in June.
07:22That's 102 percent more than in the same month in 2019.
07:25So are people using this to come to work, or was this just to go to the Knicks games?
07:28It was to go to the Knicks parties.
07:29That's the thing.
07:30That's the thing.
07:31We just need a sport, you know, to draw people in New York City every month, and then we'll be
07:36good.
07:37Well, there was also golf fans, the U.S. Open in Southampton.
07:42Oh, aren't you fancy?
07:44All right.
07:44I've ridden LIR about once, but, you know, they're kind of rowdy, those people.
07:49Sometimes you get a double-decker train there.
07:51The double-decker?
07:52Yes.
07:53Oh, the train.
07:54Oh, I got it.
07:55Okay.
07:55I was thinking the bus anyway.
07:57Well, anyway, yeah, LIR back.
08:00Congratulations.
08:01Nice milestone there.
08:02Hopefully those people actually start using it to come into the office, you know, support our economy here.
08:06Meanwhile, the movie economy is doing pretty well.
08:09Of course, the release of Odyssey, which, you know, other than, you know, the culture warrior, you know,
08:14Numbnuts, who thought this was going to flop, this is obviously the biggest movie of the year.
08:18And then I just saw a story.
08:19It's about to open in China, overseas, this weekend.
08:22And in China, there are about 800 IMAX screens.
08:25They're devoting almost every single screen just to this movie to accommodate the demand.
08:29Who's Numbnuts?
08:31Have you seen this movie, Emily, Grafale?
08:34I really want to see this movie.
08:36Yeah.
08:36I can't even get into the 2 a.m. showing in New York City.
08:41That's sold out?
08:42At 2 a.m.?
08:42Yes, that's sold out.
08:43If we wait a few months, is it going to be fine?
08:45No, I think so.
08:47That's what my plan is.
08:48Why not just release it on, you know, streaming?
08:50No.
08:51No, we want to see it.
08:52We want to see 70 millimeter IMAX.
08:54I have no idea what that means.
08:55What does that mean?
08:56Higher quality picture, more immersive.
08:59More immersive.
08:59It's like you're there.
09:00It's like you're there in freshman year of high school reading the book all over again.
09:03I don't, actually.
09:04I'd rather not be a part of Odyssey.
09:05We're going to plan a trip, remain, all of us, and go.
09:09At all of our production teams.
09:10At 2 a.m. to Greece?
09:11Can you do one at 2 p.m.?
09:12No.
09:13Yeah.
09:13You know, I'm an early bird.
09:14I go to dinner at like 5 p.m.
09:16No, 2 p.m.
09:16We're on air and everybody's watching, so we don't want to do that.
09:19This is this week.
09:19Yeah.
09:20All right.
09:20Maybe we could do it at 4 o'clock.
09:21And what is it?
09:22It's like a 90-minute movie.
09:23We'll be out.
09:23Is that?
09:24Three hours.
09:25So none of us have seen this yet, right?
09:27Is there intermission?
09:29No.
09:29Oh.
09:30Okay.
09:31Well, anyway, good for Christopher Nolan.
09:32Good for, you know, Rich Gelfon, our friend there over at IMAX.
09:36You know, I know he's, we've had him on this program a lot.
09:38He really bangs the drum about how he works with these directors to really kind of create
09:42these experiences.
09:43And he's been a big fan of Christopher Nolan.
09:45And obviously, who better to tether yourself to than probably what's going to go down as one
09:49of the greatest directors of our generation.
09:51We should go to this.
09:51This would be good in this year.
09:53It might be too immersive.
09:55I don't know.
09:55I don't know.
09:56So people are taking public transit again.
09:59They're going to movie theaters again.
10:02Things are back.
10:02We're back.
10:03We're back, baby.
10:04We're back, baby.
10:05Now it's time for us to go.
10:06Now we got to go, baby.
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