00:00I'll start with a large question and I imagine it involves a complex long answer and you'll have
00:03space for that. But why is the outlook for the index right now in your mind so compromised?
00:09Yeah, lots of different reasons. But one is what we've been talking about, what I've been
00:14listening to on the show so far. The good news for tech seems to be priced in. The companies
00:21are no longer rallying and outperforming on beats on earnings and revenues. In fact,
00:28they've sold off on earnings and revenues. We've had an environment where the rest of the
00:34market is actually pretty healthy, but I think it's all been obscured by the elephant in the
00:39room, which is mega cap tech. And the idea that these stocks are going to continue to
00:43lead us to new highs, I think, is no longer the case. Look, I like tech. I think tech is
00:51the future. But I think right now we're in an air pocket and we've been talking about this
00:55all year. The idea that we're in an environment where we know AI. We are bullish on AI. We know
01:04that companies are spending a ton of money. ISM is above 50, well above 50. CapEx is strong.
01:11The economy is strong. Inflation is pretty healthy, maybe even overheating a little bit.
01:17But the idea that we're going to see that same leadership from the ballast of the market,
01:22I just think is very hard to paint. On top of that, you've got an environment where the consumer
01:29has been chugging along, defying all expectations, and maybe that continues.
01:34But this year, I think what we've seen so far is a little bit less bullish. So, for example,
01:40if you look at layoffs in January, they were primarily in high-paying jobs, in tech jobs.
01:46It's been an environment where the higher income cohort of the U.S. economy is not necessarily
01:58feeling as healthy as they were a couple of years ago, whereas lower income is now getting
02:03a boost. So, I think that's healthy in terms of broadening, but it's not necessarily the
02:08the same story we've seen for the last three years.
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