00:00I want to give you a shout out. Your words on chips, I think, were really important in the past
00:05few weeks.
00:05We saw some big companies come out with some big spending and chips didn't rally, didn't rally big time at
00:11all.
00:11In fact, Intel sold off into the weekend, even on great numbers. Lisa, what is that validating for you?
00:17Well, when the market stops rewarding good news, you have to pay attention because it signals that the narrative is
00:24changing.
00:24And right now for us, you know, we're focused on this idea that more is no longer more.
00:32More CapEx spending actually is starting to worry the markets about when I get a return on investment and if
00:41we're going to get to a place of, in fact, overspending.
00:45What position does that leave the likes of Meta, the likes of Microsoft, the likes of Amazon in this week?
00:52It's very, very, very tough. I mean, I think that these guys have to be extraordinarily clear in articulating their
01:01forward guidance, in articulating their forward strategy and beginning to articulate those paths to monetization.
01:09Obviously, our best guess is that the numbers for the current quarter are going to be exceedingly good.
01:15We know that, you know, one of the hyperscaler compatriots, Alphabet Google, reported last week and you saw what the
01:25market did when, you know, Google talked about, you know, even yet higher spending.
01:31So I think that they need to be measured.
01:33Third, they need to be precise in this guidance and what the incremental spend on CapEx is going to go
01:40towards and when folks can expect some, you know, positive return on that investment.
01:46Lisa, you said it really well, this idea that when stocks don't perform as you'd expect, that signals a narrative
01:51shift when you see stocks selling off in the face of good news.
01:54I wonder if you expect capital markets to start to materially push back on some of these companies.
02:00We're seeing it in the equity prices, but we're still seeing the big hyperscalers and others be able to raise
02:06huge amounts of money in debt and equity markets.
02:09Do you think that anything could change that in the next couple of months?
02:14I don't know that it's going to change in the next couple of months, but we are seeing, you know,
02:19the markets start to vote with its feet.
02:22We just talked about the stock prices.
02:24Another thing to talk about is some of the spread widening that we've seen in some of the investment grade
02:32debt issuance in the space.
02:34I know that for a long time, Oracle's CDS spreads have been a indicator on everyone's screen, on everyone's Bloomberg
02:46screen, the first thing that they look at in the morning.
02:48And so, you know, I do think that the market is going to start to vote here about excess, about
02:55negative free cash flow, and about anxiety around the different paths to monetization.
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