00:00Is the signal that you're taking from the market that there isn't a whole lot of faith,
00:03that there will be some sort of hiking cycle, even if inflation remains elevated?
00:07So here's the thing. Inflation has been elevated for three years now. The Fed has been 50% above
00:13its inflation target, and the Fed has got, over that period of time, close to 200 basis points.
00:19And therefore, we actually have a very dovish Fed. And I think the market is perhaps coming
00:26around to that viewpoint, regardless of who the Fed chair is, I think we have a very,
00:33very dovish Fed. We've always had one. And I would say that if we look forward, I don't think the
00:40market currently is pricing in realistically what long-end yields would be. I think 475.5 is
00:47probably closer to fair value. I think this is not yet the time to go all in on long-end
00:54yields.
00:55I think we're going to range trade a little bit. But the drift over the next several years,
01:00I would say, is probably upwards. It's not downwards.
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