00:00How should our audience of retirement, of personal finance, how should they synthesize
00:06the Fed madness? You and I remember when Arthur Burns had smoke coming out of the pipe and we
00:12interpreted that. Now we've got this parlor game. How does Ed Yardini filter that if it's for
00:18long-term investment? Well, I think you focus on the economy. If you believe in the resilience of
00:23the economy, if you believe that the labor market is in balance, we've got a 4.3% unemployment rate,
00:29which is awfully good. We have an inflation problem. The Fed is going to have to probably
00:35raise interest rates at least once, maybe a second time, maybe even a third time, according to
00:40where the two-year Treasury note yield is right now. I think you kind of grin and bear it and
00:46try to enjoy your retirement life because I think the market will continue to defy the bears because
00:54the economy will continue to defy the pessimists. You were saying that the boomers don't care
00:59about the Fed raising rates. They're going to enjoy their retirement. I'm not a boomer. I'm a Gen Xer,
01:04so I got to work for longer. And I'm wondering whether a higher for longer interest rates means
01:08that I have to rethink, reassess, pivot my investment strategy. Well, the short answer is yes,
01:15but I'm not a big fan of the higher for longer idea about interest rates. I think interest rates
01:20are back to normal. In other words, 4% to 5% 10-year Treasury bond yield is a sign
01:26of a very
01:26healthy economy. It's a yield that made sense before the great financial crisis. The aberration,
01:33you know, higher for longer implies we're going to be going back to the closer to zero interest rates.
01:38This is it. This is pretty good. That was the abnormal. Yeah. Now, 6%, 6, 6.5%, 7% mortgage
01:44rates
01:44seem awfully high to a lot of people compared to what? Compared to where they were when the economy
01:49wasn't doing so well.
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