00:00Let's talk about everyone's favorite topic in Hong Kong.
00:04Pressing the close button on the elevator.
00:06I'm kidding.
00:06It's the housing market.
00:08So Bloomberg Intelligence has some projections right now
00:11of a sustained rebound in the housing market.
00:14Secondary homes get this set to jump nearly 20% by the end of next year.
00:20So let's call it the better part of what's 18 months.
00:23Patrick Wong is with us here on set, BI's Hong Kong head,
00:25to tell us more about the outlook and how you guys came up with this number.
00:28Yes, we work with our data scientists
00:30and then come up with a deep dive research report today,
00:33including 50 pages.
00:35And then in thought, I think it's great to see the opportunities coming.
00:39And for the housing market here, we see the rental growth is sustainable.
00:43Over the past few years, every year 5% growth
00:46and also the population info now again happening
00:49with the students coming from university,
00:52attract quite a lot of students from mainland
00:54or even from other part of the region in like APAC.
00:59Meanwhile, we also observe the opportunities
01:02that the working visa is still coming quite a lot.
01:05This year, we observe like over 100,000
01:09could be sustainable like last year
01:11or even the year before and then happening this year again.
01:14So, it's the population info driving the rental growth.
01:18And the concern may be the interest rate outlook,
01:20if you will not wear sewer for most people.
01:23Having said that, the price we receive year-to-day up over 7%.
01:27And then we see this year 11% growth should be achievable.
01:31Next year, another 7%.
01:35Patrick, I mean, there have been some worries though
01:39that the sort of tightening that we've seen
01:41on capital outflow controls on Hong Kong
01:43may impact the property market.
01:46I wonder how that would interrupt or affect the thesis here.
01:51True.
01:52The challenge, I think, is more about
01:54the mainland Chinese demand is still the key message
01:57that always driving the demand in Hong Kong
02:00for the housing market.
02:01Having said that, I think the concern may be overdone.
02:05Part of the reason is that, as I said,
02:07the population info is important.
02:09So, driving the rental growth.
02:10And then second thing we could see
02:12is that the opportunity is coming.
02:15Is that for the housing market,
02:17we also driving is in terms of the,
02:19those are buyers, usually over 90%.
02:23Basically, they have Hong Kong ID cards.
02:25So, basically, they may already part the money here in Hong Kong.
02:29So, the capital outflow control,
02:31yeah, there's some potential concern.
02:34So, volume slowing down a bit.
02:35But having said that, I think it's more like
02:38the price going up a lot year to day.
02:41So, it's also cooled down a little bit
02:42over the past month or so.
02:44But the things may also be improving.
02:46Especially, summertime is coming.
02:47Rents is going up faster with students coming.
02:50So, there's also opportunities coming for Hong Kong.
02:53So, I'm going to go to Hong Kong.
02:53So, I'm going to go to Hong Kong.
02:53So, I'm going to go to Hong Kong.
02:53So, I'm going to go to Hong Kong.
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