00:01This is a generational shift in military leadership we see underway between an older
00:08Soviet-schooled military establishment, epitomised by Sersky, and a younger generation whose views
00:17and experience have been shaped by the current Russia-Ukraine war.
00:22And they're pushing for a wide-ranging transformation in the Ukrainian armed forces.
00:29And that covers everything from procurement, tackling corruption, to personnel policy,
00:35and the more innovative use of new technologies, which we're seeing with drones,
00:41which they felt the older establishment was resistant to.
00:44And this has led to the popular, first of all, the dismissal by Sersky of Fedorov,
00:51which he has now been forced by the popular backlash to try and contain.
00:58And Sersky has, in turn, been dismissed this morning.
01:02We don't know where this is all going to end.
01:04Apparently, there are going to be announcements made in the course of the next 24 hours
01:08who is going to be appointed the new minister and whether it might be Fedorov.
01:13There is already a new commander being appointed, Drapitsky, who is a colleague of Fedorov's,
01:19similarly from a younger generation.
01:21But this is significant because it is, firstly, because of the generational shift to military leadership,
01:29as I said, and how Ukraine should be fighting this war.
01:33But secondly, because it does suggest that there's been an erosion of confidence,
01:38and it's caused an erosion of confidence in Zelensky's leadership, the way he's managed this.
01:43And that's a worry, not just in terms of the domestic views within the Ukraine,
01:49but also trust amongst Ukraine's partners and externally.
01:53The only people encouraged by this will be the Russians.
01:56Now, as to the timing of these shuffles, these dismissals,
02:01the departure of the defence minister came just as Ukraine was hitting Russia's oil industry.
02:06We've seen that in the news.
02:08They've slowed the frontline advances of Moscow's forces.
02:12Now, before we get to what is happening on the battlefront there,
02:15do you find the timing of this curious?
02:18Not really.
02:20I don't think that was related exactly to the attacks.
02:22I mean, I think there's probably some, undoubtedly, some jealousy within the military
02:26with the obvious success of Fedorov's tactics and taking the battle to the Russians.
02:33But I think from all the accounts I've read,
02:35the conflict between these groups,
02:38and epitomised by Sersky and Fedorov as Sersky, the commander-in-chief,
02:43and Fedorov as minister,
02:44the differences have become pretty irreconcilable.
02:47And so Zelensky was moved to act.
02:52And the way in which he acted initially caused this backlash.
02:56And he has now had to try and correct that move.
02:59So I don't find it particularly related to the attacks on the oil industry itself.
03:06And what is the latest assessment about what is happening on the battlefront?
03:12Well, essentially, we're in the war of attrition.
03:15It's essentially a stalemate, a deadlock.
03:19Russia has been, for all the effing casualties,
03:23it's incurring the blood treasure it's expending on the battlefield, Gemma.
03:27It's making almost no progress across the whole battlefront.
03:31It's made some small gains here and there, but it's equally lost territory in other areas.
03:37So this is a war of choice by Vladimir Putin.
03:42He's not meeting his political objectives militarily, as he thought he would.
03:46And so this is not going well now from Russia's point of view.
03:51But it's equally a fragile situation.
03:53I think people have been very encouraged by Ukraine's recent turnaround in their fortunes
04:02with the strikes of the indigenously developed medium-long-range strikes
04:08on oil infrastructure, other infrastructure in Russia and behind the Russian lines.
04:16But, you know, it's still a situation where Russia enjoys an enormous dominance
04:22in manpower and materiel.
04:23So it's a fragile situation on the battlefield.
04:26It's also a Woahbeth behind each other.
04:28You
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