00:00Bill Barnwell of ESPN put together a story today where he ranked some of the top players
00:07from every organization based on their trade value.
00:11Did you see this piece?
00:12I did indeed.
00:13So the first thing I'll say is this feels very summary.
00:16Like it's one of those things where you're just kind of, what would be an interesting
00:19thing to do some research on?
00:21So trade tiers.
00:23I actually think there is some cool value in the story though, because you get a real
00:26feel for what the league thinks of various players.
00:30So as an example, he took a look at Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills based on the football
00:36version of war or whatever, and based on his success and what a team would have to give
00:40up to get Josh Allen.
00:41What do you think Josh Allen would be worth on the open trade market is the idea.
00:46Like for the, just for the sake of argument, let's say that like he, you know, he cheated
00:50on his wife with the owner's daughter or something like that.
00:53Like I can't look at him anymore.
00:54I've got to trade him.
00:55But what's funny is in the NFL, you could only trade out three years.
00:59So in other words, there's, it is impossible to get more than three first round picks unless
01:03you have more than three first round picks over the next three drafts.
01:07But what Barnwell came to the decision of is there are two guys in the league worth the
01:11most.
01:11And that's Allen, the perennial MVP candidate in the homes, who's already gone down maybe
01:16as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.
01:18And they are worth, according to Bill Barnwell, seven first round picks.
01:22It's just such a funny number.
01:23Cause of course it's will never happen.
01:25Nothing could like the best you could do to me is the next three number ones.
01:29That's obvious.
01:29The next three number twos.
01:31That's obvious.
01:31And your two best players.
01:32And maybe that's not enough.
01:34Cause as you said, you can't trade out beyond just a few years.
01:38So it's of course physically impossible.
01:40You offer the bills five firsts.
01:42They turning that down.
01:43They are.
01:44Yes.
01:45They got Josh Allen.
01:46I would turn it down.
01:46They got a chance to get to the Superbowl every single year.
01:49So seven first round picks is what he says Allen is worth.
01:52And then he looks at the other players on their team and their value.
01:55And basically they don't have anybody worth two firsts after that.
01:57He says for one first rounder, Spencer Brown, their tackle, or Greg Rousseau, the edge,
02:02defensive tackle, Ed Oliver.
02:04And then he's got some guys that missed the cut as being worth a first rounder like James
02:08Cook, Dalton Kincaid, Deion Dawkins, based on his age.
02:11The Miami Dolphins do not have a quarterback worthy of that, but they have first round talents
02:17that would require a first in Kenneth Grant, Patrick Paul, Caden Proctor.
02:22And so it's not just quarterbacks, but he went with anyone that's worth a first or more.
02:27Drake May, New England Patriots.
02:29You know what they said he was worth?
02:31More than one first round pick.
02:33Two?
02:33Three?
02:34Six.
02:35Six.
02:35First round picks for Drake May.
02:3723 years old, was one vote away from being the NFL's MVP last season.
02:43Very deserving of it.
02:45And six first round picks is what they come to.
02:48They say Christian Gonzalez, by the way, who the Commanders passed on and should have drafted
02:51when they took Emmanuel Forbes, is worth two first rounders.
02:55Sauce Gardner trade is what they use there, basically as the going rate.
02:59And they say if Christian Gonzalez was traded today, they would not do it for less than two
03:03ones.
03:04They've got other talent.
03:05One first round pick for offensive tackle, Will Campbell.
03:07And then one first round pick for A.J. Brown.
03:10We just saw that.
03:11Defensive tackle, Milton Williams.
03:12They got a lot more talent, by the way.
03:14High end talent.
03:14All of a sudden, you look up and you go, there are a few top 10 players at various positions
03:18there.
03:18I'm wondering what Caleb Williams is listed at.
03:20So I looked that up.
03:21Caleb Williams.
03:22So Drake May is six firsts.
03:24Only four first round picks for Caleb Williams.
03:27Says there's still a fair amount of projection to be done with Williams, but the worst completion
03:31percentage over expected of any regular quarterback last year per next gen stats.
03:36The playoff game against the Rams might be the best example of how easy it is to draw
03:40multiple perspective on Williams.
03:41This is how I've always felt.
03:42You can watch one game of Caleb Williams and come away with two different takes.
03:46You could be like, man, these two and a half quarters, God, he missed so much stuff.
03:49He was terrible.
03:50That was awful.
03:51But in time to win a football game, he's going to make a couple big boy throws that nobody
03:55else can make.
03:55You've seen those moments.
03:56It's him and Pat Mahomes sometimes.
03:57Or the no one else can make those throws kind of plays.
04:01And then you go, he completed 58% of his passes with weapons and a quarterback friendly
04:05system.
04:06What are we doing?
04:07There are so many misses there that you go, God, if we could just clean some of that up,
04:11you'd have one of the most prolific players in the sport.
04:13So if Drake Mays worth six ones and Caleb Williams is worth four, where would you have anticipated
04:19he had Jaden Daniels?
04:21Based on the injury.
04:22That's kind of the rub there.
04:24It would probably be two and two plus or three somewhere in there.
04:28So I would have thought if Caleb Williams is worth four ones, then Jaden Daniels probably
04:33should be.
04:34You're right.
04:34There's a little bit of a durability concern.
04:36So maybe you could tell me three first, something like that.
04:40Barnwell lists him as three first round picks and more.
04:44He says it wasn't a banner year for Daniels who dealt with multiple injuries amid a frustrating
04:482025 season for Washington.
04:51Optimists who saw an unflappable playmaker at LSU witnessed Daniels immediately revitalize
04:57Moribund Commanders franchise in 2024, but teams that were worried about Daniels' slight
05:03frame entering the draft were given further fuel for their fears last season.
05:08He does have other players listed as worth a first rounder.
05:11Interesting to me.
05:12Josh Connerly, who was taken in round one last year, which makes a lot of sense because
05:16there's huge upside for him, wasn't a great rookie season, but you look at the size,
05:20you look at the athleticism, you see where he was drafted.
05:22There's a starter kit there.
05:23Absolutely.
05:24So you're not going to give him up for less than a one.
05:26It's Sonny Stiles, who was just drafted seventh overall, stands to reason.
05:30If you're trading Sonny Stiles, you sure as heck better give me a first rounder back.
05:34I just used one on him.
05:35The other one is Laramie Tunsil, and I know he's older, but he's their best player.
05:39Highest ranked guy at his position.
05:41The one guy on this team that could push for all pro consideration.
05:44So they've got a total of four guys that are worth at least a first round pick, which
05:48is over what I would have thought.
05:50Now, I wouldn't have honestly thought to include a guy they just drafted in Sonny Stiles.
05:54That's kind of a quirky, but if you want to take him out of it, because he hasn't played
05:57yet, Daniels, Connerly, Tunsil, all worth a one or more.
06:01And in Daniels case, he says three first plus.
06:04So when you, again, you're the whole point of this exercise is to figure out value.
06:08You're not talking about trade.
06:10We're not doing the NBA trade calculator.
06:11What is a guy worth around the league right now?
06:15And my biggest complaint about this Washington team is they just don't have enough of these
06:18guys that other teams would want or would start for other people.
06:21So it's actually kind of a, it's a, it's a good, refreshing way to look at that where
06:24you go, actually, hold on two guys on the offensive line.
06:27Something I've kind of complained about because they just gave away Tyler Biotis for nothing.
06:30They're hoping whatever happens at center is good enough.
06:34And they're going to see, you know, the, the left guard market isn't, uh, or the left
06:37guard isn't marquee.
06:37They're just running back to Chris Paul, Brandon Coleman thing, didn't seek to upgrade with
06:41a ton of salary cap space.
06:42So I go, let's actually refreshing to look at that.
06:45There is some desirable talent here with the arrow trending up on.
06:49There's nobody worth five first round picks.
06:54I'm trying to put together just a list of who the, the players worth the most are.
06:59Obviously those are all going to be quarterbacks.
07:02So seven number ones for Alan or my homes six for Drake may.
07:07Nobody at five, four first round picks.
07:10He's got Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Caleb Williams issue with any of that.
07:16No.
07:18Then for three first round picks, he's got Fernando Mendoza who just went one, one three
07:22first and more Jaden Daniels, three ones for Jordan love.
07:28I don't hate that.
07:30As long as Daniels is worth more than Fernando Mendoza.
07:32If you're trying to tell me they have the same value right now before Mendoza has done
07:35anything, I got a problem with that because Daniels has had one exceptional NFL season
07:39where he got to a conference championship game.
07:42And I get that you could look at it both ways and say, he's also had an injury prone
07:45year and Mendoza hasn't that pulls him down.
07:48But you cannot tell me that Daniels, the Heisman Trophy winner, 50 touchdowns, athletic ability
07:53out the wazoo, that he and Fernando Mendoza would have identical trade value.
07:57That's insane.
07:58Well, you're of the greatest deposit we've ever seen in the bank.
08:00I understand what happened last year.
08:02I was there too, but that's, that's kind of the point to me, right?
08:04Is that it has to be more than the guy that I think in most years would not go one,
08:08one.
08:08Like if, if Fernando Mendoza was in that 24 quarterback class, he's not the first quarterback
08:13taken, probably not the second.
08:15I'd argue probably not the third.
08:16I think he'd be somewhere in that, you know, uh, maybe before Bo Nix, but not necessarily,
08:23you know, right there at the top.
08:26So, Sonny Stiles, Josh Connerly, Laramie Tunsil, all worth a one.
08:32Washington doesn't have the elite talent yet, but if those guys hit, they're at least starting
08:37to build some stellar perennial Pro Bowl type legitimacy, it would appear.
08:42Grant and Danny on the fan.
08:44Big extension for a young star in Major League Baseball today.
08:47Where's the Nats extension we've all been waiting for for years?
08:51We can get into that coming up in 20 minutes on the fan.
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