- 2 days ago
Is Xi secretly mocking Putin? Their alliance may not be what it seems…
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
Russia and China claim to be strategic partners - but is that partnership real, or just political theater? In this video, Elvira Bary unpacks the strange dynamics behind the so-called “no limits” friendship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. From mismatched propaganda and mutual ignorance to historical betrayals and economic dependence, the alliance may be more fragile - and more manipulative - than it appears. Are we witnessing true cooperation… or a silent betrayal?
Video Chapters:
00:00 Russia & China: Alliance or Silent Betrayal?
01:01 So Alike, Yet So Different
05:27 Shared Goals, Ancient Instincts
09:29 An Uneasy Partnership
13:59 A History Written in Mistrust
18:11 China’s Game of Control
21:34 The Strategic Dead End
👉 JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY Sign-up for news about the New Book here: https://elvirabary.com/elvira-barys-newsletter/
MY HISTORICAL FICTION BOOK SERIES
➡️ Russian Treasures (a historical novel about the Bolshevik Revolution and Russian Civil War) https://amzn.to/
👉 What World Leaders NEED to Know about Russia: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL6d9EIByxz1AdkmIOYUlrDd0rmByq5zSN
Russia and China claim to be strategic partners - but is that partnership real, or just political theater? In this video, Elvira Bary unpacks the strange dynamics behind the so-called “no limits” friendship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. From mismatched propaganda and mutual ignorance to historical betrayals and economic dependence, the alliance may be more fragile - and more manipulative - than it appears. Are we witnessing true cooperation… or a silent betrayal?
Video Chapters:
00:00 Russia & China: Alliance or Silent Betrayal?
01:01 So Alike, Yet So Different
05:27 Shared Goals, Ancient Instincts
09:29 An Uneasy Partnership
13:59 A History Written in Mistrust
18:11 China’s Game of Control
21:34 The Strategic Dead End
👉 JOIN ME ON THE JOURNEY Sign-up for news about the New Book here: https://elvirabary.com/elvira-barys-newsletter/
MY HISTORICAL FICTION BOOK SERIES
➡️ Russian Treasures (a historical novel about the Bolshevik Revolution and Russian Civil War) https://amzn.to/
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LearningTranscript
00:00Something bizarre is unfolding between Russia and China.
00:04On paper, they are best friends, strategic partners without limits.
00:09But look closely. And the story gets weird.
00:13Russian media gashes over China, painting Xi Jinping as a wise and powerful leader,
00:20Russia's best hope against the West.
00:22But in Beijing, it's all business.
00:24Careful language and subtle signals that China's not planning to risk much for its troubled neighbor.
00:32It's almost comical.
00:34Russia looks like a woman proudly telling everyone she's about to marry the guy next door
00:39just because he once borrowed her a screwdriver.
00:43So, what's really going on here?
00:46I'm Elvira Bari, a writer born in the Soviet Union.
00:49And today, we are going beyond the headlines.
00:52Revealing what this so-called friendship really is.
00:57An alliance or a silent betrayal?
01:05Modern Russia and China have a lot in common.
01:09Both see themselves as the center of the world.
01:12In ancient and medieval times, China truly was the most advanced civilization on Earth,
01:18drawing the brightest minds into its orbit.
01:21Russia, on the other hand, viewed itself as the spiritual axis of the universe,
01:27the largest orthodox power, the guardian of the one true faith.
01:32Later, both nations saw themselves as the heart of the most correct ideology – communism.
01:38The only problem they could not agree on whose version – Chinese or Soviet – was the real one.
01:44Both countries are steeped in nationalism and, frankly, racism.
01:47The us-versus-them mindset is one of the few forces that can unify their vast fragmented societies.
01:56I have a separate video that dives into how Russian racism works.
02:01It explains a lot.
02:03Both have a long-standing conflict with the West.
02:06For Russia, it's historical rivalry over access to warm-water ports and recurring wars in Europe.
02:14For China, it's the century of humiliation that began with the Opium Wars and culminated in
02:22its semi-colonial status in the early 20th century.
02:26You can read about how Western colonists lived in Shanghai in my historical novel,
02:30the White Coast's empire.
02:32Both nations were shaped by communist philosophy,
02:35underwent cultural revolutions, endured totalitarian regimes and paid a horrific price.
02:41Eventually, they learned the hard way that Marxist theory does not work in practice
02:47and began searching for some alternative that would not leave them hopelessly behind the West.
02:54Today, both states are obsessed with controlling the past,
02:58maintaining appearances, and saving a face.
03:02Impressing the world has become a national pastime.
03:05That's why we get mega projects, glittering Olympic ceremonies, and intimidating military drills.
03:13On a personal level, it manifests as consumerism and performative wealth.
03:18Russians and Chinese alike love luxury brands, measure success in money, and constantly show off.
03:26Mostly to themselves.
03:28Despite all their anti-Western rhetoric, both societies still crave Western validation.
03:35An artist is considered truly successful not when they top the charts in Moscow or Beijing,
03:41but when they win an Oscar in so-called Cursed America.
03:46Corruption runs deep in both systems.
03:49Faked reports, stolen budgets kick backs at every level.
03:54Bauer is feudal.
03:55At the top, an unmovable leader.
03:59Beneath him, a handful of clans competing for control of various sectors.
04:05In both countries, people enter politics not to serve the public,
04:09but to enrich themselves and gain higher status.
04:13A government position offers far more lucrative opportunities than any business,
04:18creative pursuit, or academic achievement.
04:21Civil society is weak, the population atomized, and the state's main tool is repression.
04:29In both countries, the government ensures that citizens have no real way to influence those in power.
04:37The officials swear loyalty to their fatherland and the supreme leader.
04:42But their real goal is simple – steal and escape.
04:47Or at least stash their money abroad to protect it from domestic rivals,
04:52who could easily strip them of everything they've looted.
04:56Both Russia and China face serious economic problems, capital flight, and demographic collapse.
05:02And both regimes are toying with the idea that a short victorious war could help unite their crumbling societies.
05:09Putin tried, and now he is neck deep in disaster.
05:14Xi is still waiting his options on Taiwan.
05:18He wants it badly.
05:21But after watching Putin miscalculate so catastrophically, he is not quite ready to roll the dice.
05:32The most important thing uniting China and Russia is not love, trust, or shared history.
05:38It's a common goal to maintain authoritarian control while keeping the economy alive.
05:44How to actually do that, however, remains a mystery.
05:48Because if you want to rule forever, you have to keep your people afraid.
05:53You need coercion, surveillance, and violence.
05:58But your citizens want freedom, prosperity, and the future.
06:01And your goals inevitably clash with theirs.
06:05You want the money, freedom, and future for yourself.
06:09In the past, rulers could rely on one advantage.
06:12Peasants had nowhere to go.
06:15Abandoning your land meant abandoning your life.
06:18But in the 21st century, even the poorest people dream of escape.
06:23They move to other cities or other countries.
06:26And when people feel exploited, threatened, or unstable, they stop having children.
06:33No propaganda campaign can reverse that.
06:36Both China and Russia owe their rise to one thing – trade with the West.
06:41The West wanted cheap resources from Russia and cheap goods from China.
06:46And gave little thought to who profited from the deals.
06:51In both cases, the West unintentionally funded the rise of two authoritarian powers,
06:57now shaking the global order.
06:59It's an old story.
07:02Politicians solve today's problems while offloading the consequences onto their children and grandchildren.
07:10The Chinese and Russian lids responded in the most obvious way.
07:14They tightened control over whatever generates profit.
07:17And they want the world to function like 19th century New York slums.
07:22Each gang with its turf, the boss feeding off it, and no one daring to interfere.
07:29If there's trouble, the cops can always be bribed.
07:33This mindset is not just political. It's biological.
07:38In primate societies, dominant males protect their territory, hoard resources, and crush challengers.
07:45Civilization is supposed to be humanity's slow departure from these ancient instincts.
07:51An attempt to build systems that benefit everyone, not just the strongest.
07:56But the problem is – these instincts still live inside us.
08:01They are hard-coded into our behavior and it takes real awareness to resist them.
08:07Authoritarian leaders don't resist them – they lean in.
08:10They are too busy performing dominance rituals, signaling strength, and defending tribal turf.
08:17If this idea intrigues you, I have a separate video explaining how these primal dynamics shape modern politics.
08:23That's why Putin wants Ukraine.
08:25It has nothing to do with protecting Russian speakers.
08:29If that were the goal, he could have spent a fraction of the war's cost resettling them in Russia,
08:36where the population is already shrinking and sees obsession with Taiwan, it's the same logic.
08:42Not justice, dominance, not re-humanification, status.
08:46If he does not claim it, he looks weak. And weakness is fatal in their worldview.
08:53Strip away the propaganda and what you've left with is an ancient pattern of behavior.
08:58Two better males trying to weaken the alpha.
09:01On their own, they can take him. Together, maybe they have a shot.
09:07They don't trust each other. They certainly don't want the other to succeed.
09:11But right now, the alpha, Washington, is the biggest threat to their rank.
09:17And so, they strike a deal. A temporary alliance.
09:21A pact not of friendship but of strategy. A very old instinct dressed in modern suits.
09:33An alliance between two countries is not made on camera.
09:37A real partnership comes from the ground up.
09:40When people genuinely want to connect, share experiences, and celebrate each other's successes.
09:46At its heart, that takes curiosity, respect, and willingness to understand.
09:52Yes, supreme leaders in authoritarian regimes can push policies from the top.
09:58But in reality, it's the mid-level people. The officials, business owners, border guards,
10:05teachers, and police who shape how things play out.
10:08If their leader says, trust our neighbor, they'll nod and say, yes, sir.
10:14And then quietly do whatever seems best for their own situation.
10:18That's why it's so important to look beyond the headlines and examine the real fabric of their relationship.
10:25In the case of Russia and China, despite their enormous shared border and constant declarations of strategic unity,
10:32the truth is striking. The two societies barely know each other.
10:36And that ignorance goes all the way up the chain of command.
10:41Why? Several reasons.
10:43First, Russia's border regions with China are sparsely populated.
10:47Most Russians live in the European part of the country.
10:50That's where decisions are made. And that's where the focus stays.
10:55In short, the people managing Russia's China policy rarely interact with China at all.
11:01Second, the language barrier.
11:04Young people in both countries study English.
11:06Chinese students often add Japanese or Korean.
11:10Russian? Not a priority.
11:12Only a small number of specialists and border traders speak it.
11:16And in Russia, the number of people studying Chinese is also tiny.
11:20Mostly limited to business people with direct trade interests.
11:24Third, the education gap.
11:27Chinese students learn a simplified version of Russian history.
11:311917 revolution, World War II collapse of the Soviet Union.
11:36Everything else – imperial expansion, the Gulag system, Putin's state – is conveniently left out.
11:43Russian students get even less.
11:46Chinese history is practically invisible in school textbooks,
11:50reducing to a paragraph about the ancient world and a few scattered mansions.
11:55Tourism doesn't help either.
11:57Chinese travelers prefer Japan, Thailand, or Europe.
12:00Russia is not on most itineraries.
12:02Those who do visit often come in tightly organized tour groups,
12:07rarely interacting with locals.
12:09And as for Russians?
12:11Since sanctions close the doors to the West, some have turned East.
12:16But traveling to China is not cheap.
12:19Only the wealthy or those who live near the border can manage it.
12:23What all of this creates is mutual ignorance.
12:26And when politicians don't understand their counterpart's country,
12:30they fall back on myths, outdated stereotypes, and whatever story their advisors feed them.
12:37For the Russian elite, this has led to a dangerous illusion that China is a flawless economic miracle,
12:44a green energy powerhouse, and a technological marvel that proves democracy is unnecessary.
12:51In other words, they bought the Chinese propaganda and believed the version of China
12:56that Beijing wanted them to see.
12:59That's why Russian leaders seriously believed China would stand shoulder to shoulder with them
13:04in their war against the West.
13:06The China would step in, support the invasion of Ukraine, and help Russia come out on top.
13:13But a lack of historical context came back to bite them.
13:17The Russian elite simply doesn't understand how the Chinese view them.
13:21Officially, Chinese state media and education system are polite.
13:26They present the relationship as smooth and cooperative.
13:31But the reality is more complex.
13:33What we are seeing now is a kind of strategic amnesia.
13:36A deliberate forgetting.
13:38China is ignoring all territorial grievances.
13:41And diplomatic sides not out of loyalty, but because it serves their interests right now.
13:47This is not friendship.
13:49It is a temporary alignment, a cool, calculated arrangement that can change the moment the
13:57costs outweigh the benefits.
14:04Despite the polite language and staged summits of today,
14:08the history between Russia and China has been anything but smooth.
14:12In the mid-19th century, China was collapsing under the weight of military
14:17defeats and civil unrest. Russia took advantage of the chaos,
14:22seizing vast territories in the Northeast.
14:24Today, the Kremlin publicly praises China.
14:28But don't be fooled. Russian conquests are not seen as shameful,
14:33but as points of pride.
14:35Need proof?
14:36Look no further than Russia's largest banknote.
14:40The 5,000-ruble bill features a statue of
14:45General Nikolai Muravyev-Amursky, the man responsible for the annexation of Chinese lands.
14:51That image says everything about how Russia still sees its neighbor.
14:57In the early 20th century, the violence continued.
15:00In 1900, in the Russian city of Blagovishinsk, thousands of ethnic Chinese were massacred.
15:07Estimates range from 3,000 to 7,000.
15:11Chinese bandits retaliated, robbing Russian trains and steamboats.
15:16Russia responded with machine guns and raids on villages.
15:20No one showed mercy.
15:22Facing a labor shortage during World War I,
15:25Russian contractors imported tens of thousands of Chinese workers.
15:29But after the 1917 revolution, when wages stopped,
15:34many of them joined the Bolsheviks as enforcers and helped suppress Russian opposition.
15:40I describe this period in detail in my historical novel Russian Treasures.
15:44Throughout the 1920s, the Soviet Union actively tried to ignite civil war in China,
15:50hoping it would lead to a communist victory.
15:54Moscow's logic was strategic.
15:57If China, a critical part of the global economy, could be pulled out of the capitalist world,
16:03Western economies might collapse.
16:06That would trigger revolutions in Europe and America,
16:09and eventually the whole planet would become a single Soviet-led communist state.
16:16To achieve that, Moscow played both sides,
16:18negotiating with the ruling government in Beijing and the communist opposition in the south.
16:24The result? Mass terror in China.
16:27But Soviet leaders didn't care.
16:28However, their racism combined with ideological zeal left no room for moral restraint.
16:34Anyone who resisted was a heretic, expendable.
16:39Even after Mao's communist regime took power, relations with the USSR were rocky.
16:45When Stalin died and his successors denounced his cult of personality,
16:50China rejected the move.
16:52Mao wasn't ready for that reckoning.
16:54His cultural revolution, man-made famines and mass purchase were still ahead.
17:00Mistakes the USSR had already lived through decades earlier.
17:05But neither country really understood the other.
17:08They took each other's propaganda at face value.
17:12The real conflict between Moscow and Beijing, as always, came down to primitive dominance games.
17:18This time over who would lead the communist world.
17:22Despite all the Soviet aid, money, weapons and advisers,
17:26Mao had no intention of being anyone's junior partner.
17:30Moscow was outraged.
17:32In 1969, tensions escalated into an actual border conflict.
17:37Soldiers died on both sides.
17:40The final split came in 1972, when US President Richard Nixon visited China.
17:47His goal was to drive a wedge between the two communist powers.
17:52And it worked.
17:54Normalized relations with the US gave China access to American markets.
17:59And that laid the foundation for its economic miracle.
18:03The short-term strategy succeeded.
18:05But no one paused to consider what it might mean in the long run.
18:16Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Xi Jinping had raised countless costs to no-limits cooperation.
18:23But has China actually invested in Russia's future?
18:26Not even close.
18:28Direct investment dried up after 2022.
18:32No major new deals have materialized.
18:34Even Moscow's request to issue yuan-denominating bonds was quietly blocked.
18:41A clear vote of no confidence.
18:43For all the summit fanfare, it's mostly failure.
18:48Trade continues, but on China's terms.
18:51Walk into a Moscow car dealership today.
18:54Nearly every model is Chinese.
18:56With Western brands gone, 90% of Russia's imported cars now come from China.
19:02And average prices have nearly doubled.
19:06Russia sends crude oil, metals, and timber.
19:10Cheap.
19:11China sends back electronics and machinery.
19:14Expensive.
19:15It's a colonial model in reverse.
19:18And China won't help Russia rise.
19:21It wants a buyer, not a builder.
19:24Russian businesses complain about overpriced, low-quality Chinese equipment.
19:29But there's nowhere else to turn.
19:31Putin's pivot has made Russia an economic hostage.
19:36The irony?
19:36China is now quietly repaying its old debts.
19:39Once Russia exploited China's weakness.
19:42Seizing land and interfering in its affairs.
19:45Now Xi is doing the same.
19:47Bleeding a weakened Russia dry while smiling for the cameras.
19:52It's a calculated game.
19:54See, once Putin just desperate enough to stay loyal, but never strong enough to act alone.
20:00That's why China sends just enough to keep Russia's war machine returning.
20:05Drones, chips, spare parts, but never tanks or missiles.
20:09Not enough to win.
20:10Just enough not to collapse.
20:12And when the US tightens sanctions?
20:15Chinese banks pause cooperation immediately.
20:19So much for loyalty.
20:21Beijing's support is purely transactional.
20:24Gone the moment it threatens Chinese interests.
20:28Behind closed doors, Chinese officers mock the Russian army as a negative example.
20:34They are not fighting alongside Russia.
20:36They are learning from its mistakes to sharpen their own.
20:40Putin fought a pivot to China and would buy time and create a new Eurasian order.
20:45One led by equals.
20:47Instead, China got a client.
20:50Russia got the bill.
20:52And the dream of co-leadership?
20:55Gone.
20:57What options are left?
20:58Rebuild ties with the West?
21:01That would mean admitting defeat in Ukraine.
21:04Unthinkable for a regime built on pride and denial.
21:07Turn to India?
21:09New Delhi will take the oil, but not the burden.
21:14Europe off the table.
21:16And while Russia flanders, China is quietly taking over Central Asia,
21:21building roads, cutting deals, and trading in Yuan.
21:25Once Moscow's backyard now sees playground.
21:28And Putin, tied to Beijing by dependents, can only watch.
21:39Western strategists often wonder, can Russia and China be split?
21:43Can clever diplomacy pull Putin away from sea?
21:46No.
21:47Not while these two men remain in power.
21:50Some argue the West should offer Putin a way out.
21:53The same way it once helped communist China open its economy.
21:57But here's how I see it.
21:59If you rescue a dragon, don't expect it to become friendly.
22:04He's a reptile, after all.
22:07It won't roast marshmallows with you.
22:09It'll recover and return to his old ways, deadlier than before.
22:14Putin is not driven by compromise or national prosperity.
22:19His personality type is hunter-player, a man addicted to the thrill of winning.
22:24If you are curious about this personality type system, there's more on my site,
22:29alverabari.com, under the Sphinx method.
22:32To Putin, raw dominance is nature's law.
22:37Cooperation, mutual benefit, those are fairy tales told by the weak.
22:42The West's message must be clear.
22:45If a leader behaves like a barbarian, he'll face consequences.
22:50Appeasement only rewrites the rules in favor of violence.
22:54And China is watching, taking notes on what the world will tolerate.
22:59The truth is, the fear of a powerful China-Russian alliance is overblown.
23:04There's no foundation for lasting friendship.
23:08Russian elites have nothing to offer Beijing but cheap raw materials.
23:13And public sentiment at home is either indifferent to China or quietly afraid of it.
23:18On Russian social media, talk of becoming a Chinese colony is common.
23:24And it's not satire, it's fear.
23:27Even the most hardened supporters of the war in Ukraine understand that China holds Russia's economic
23:34lifeline.
23:35If Beijing cut off the supply of cars, machinery or drone parts, the Russian economy would collapse
23:41in weeks.
23:42And here's the final irony.
23:44Russian propaganda spent years warning that the evil West would come,
23:49lose the country, and impose its will.
23:53But in the end, it was not the West.
23:56It was China.
23:57Oops.
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