00:00I wouldn't say it's surprising. I mean, I, you know, revisions are a natural part of the process.
00:05We want to get a snapshot on the U.S. economy as quickly as possible with over 150 million workers
00:11and tens of millions of businesses.
00:12Like you don't do that in two weeks on the first try. So the revisions are part of the process,
00:17getting a clearer and clearer picture.
00:19So I, you know, I kind of push back on that. There's a, you know, the system's broken. We're always
00:24going to get these kind of revisions.
00:25We've seen some upward revisions recently, too. So, you know, I think there were some things maybe that were a
00:32little puzzling in, say, last month's data.
00:34Some, you know, big jump in government employment. And so like things, it takes some time to work out the
00:39numbers.
00:39So I wouldn't I wouldn't take too much from it. It just all this underscores again. Don't get too hung
00:44up on the latest number.
00:45Look at averages. Look under the hood. I think that's a consistent message.
00:49Non-farm payrolls was one hundred and eighty eight thousand three month moving average.
00:54That comes down almost twenty thousand hundred and sixty four.
00:58So that drops down to three months moving average.
01:00And the new three months moving average is one hundred and eleven thousand.
01:05And that'll adjust. Dr. Sam, is that politically acceptable in America to have a 90 day moving average of one
01:13hundred and eleven thousand?
01:16What really matters is that the people out there who are looking for jobs can get jobs and they're good
01:22jobs.
01:22Right. So the payrolls are kind of a tricky way to read that just because we can have changes in
01:27how many people are out there looking for jobs.
01:29I still feel like the unemployment rate is a better place to start that conversation than the payroll numbers, though,
01:35of course.
01:36I mean, the difference is like it matters to people, even if you're in the four point, you know, four
01:41point three, four point two percent isn't a lot of unemployed.
01:44But if you're one of those, it's a big deal. Right. So you're going to and that may affect your
01:48vote.
01:48So but I think payrolls is a tough one. And I will say, even with the number, the three month
01:54moving average of payrolls being revised down,
01:56that's still well above what estimates were of what we think the labor force is growing at.
02:00So that could still be a good number. I'm just, you know, I mean, Claudia is so young and you,
02:05Sweeney, you know, you're just a kid.
02:07And the answer is 111,000 is un-American. We're supposed to be vibrant at 150, 200, 210. And those
02:17days are just evaporated.
02:19Claudia, how do you think our new Fed chairman and the Federal Reserve is going to view this this data
02:23point?
02:27This today's report is going to keep their focus squarely on inflation.
02:31So there I mean, you know what you're looking for are red flags, downside risks. And this this doesn't show
02:37signs of it.
02:38I think the one place that I find somewhat disconcerting is, you know, the unemployment rate did tick down to
02:42four point two percent.
02:44But it came with a three tenths decline in the labor force participation rate.
02:48And so that's, you know, people can retire. People can like go and, you know, the changes.
02:54That's not a thing the Fed gets involved with. But but that that does give me a little bit of
02:58concern just about the again,
03:00the structure of the labor force, the workforce that's out there. So, you know, I think they'll keep a watchful
03:05eye on this.
03:05But this I don't see red flags in this in terms of them turning attention into problems in the labor
03:10market.
03:11We welcome all of you across America for this American labor economy.
03:14A shock report here. Futures up 21, up 25.
03:18Now futures explode up 32. Dow futures up well over 200 points.
03:24The Nasdaq puts it on up two tenths of a percent is now.
03:28Excuse me. I checked that up two tenths of a percent now up seven tenths of a percent in the
03:33Nasdaq at 100.
03:35The VIX. I've got a 15 handle on the VIX.
03:37There you go. 15.98 plunging.
03:40Now that'll go through the July one nirvana that we saw the other day.
03:45Paul Sweeney with Dr. Claudia.
03:47Claudia, we've seen a real dramatic decline in immigration into this country.
03:55How does that impact kind of the supply side of the labor market these days?
04:01Well, industries that have, you know, rely a lot on immigrant workforce that can can cause labor shortages.
04:09We haven't seen that kind of at an aggregate level.
04:11I think you can point to some industries where you can see some tensions and even even showing up.
04:16It could be part of the contribution to, you know, construction wages rising faster than overall.
04:21But there are other reasons construction wages be rising faster.
04:23There's a lot of demand for AI build out.
04:25So it's hard to, like, pull it out in the aggregate statistics.
04:29But I think there are there are hints of it in the in industry level.
04:33And then, you know, this this can get a little complicated in terms of the measurement and the data.
04:39People need to be willing to participate in government surveys so we can understand their employment.
04:44I do worry that kind of the crackdown on immigration may be impairing the statistics some as well.
04:50So what will the Fed do?
04:52I got eight ways to go here, Claudia, in the time we've got.
04:54Kathy Kaminsky on hold right now.
04:57We'll get to her in a moment.
04:58Perfect time to talk to Katherine Kaminsky about the quant view on the market.
05:03Dr. Sum, the Fed year, I guess we've got a belief in I'll call it collegial descent.
05:10We need to raise rates.
05:11A major Wall Street shop looks for three rate increases, et cetera.
05:16How abrupt over this holiday weekend will be the market economic shift given this report relating to Fed meetings for
05:25the rest of the year?
05:29I don't think markets should react much to this report.
05:32I mean, we have a Fed that has committed to delivering price stability, which is getting inflation back to 2
05:38percent over some period of time.
05:40What's it going to take to get it back to 2 percent?
05:43And there is disagreement among the committee about what it's going to take.
05:47And today's data does not settle that that argument at all.
05:52We're just going to need a lot more information.
05:53We're just going to need a lot more information.
05:54We're just going to need a lot of information.
05:54You
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