00:05this is one India explainer what if one narrow stretch of water just 33 kilometers wide at its
00:12narrowest point had the power to shape the global economy what if a conflict thousands
00:21of miles away could decide how much you pay for gasoline groceries electricity or even affect
00:28your job the conflict between United States Israel and Iran is no longer just another Middle East
00:35crisis it has become a contest over military power regional influence global trade and the
00:43future of one of the world's most volatile regions to understand where this conflict is heading we
00:51first need to understand how it got there in the very first place
01:01surprisingly Israel and Iran were not always enemies before 1979 Iran was ruled by Shah
01:09Mohammed Reza Pahlavi a close ally of the United States Iran recognized Israel traded with it
01:16and even cooperated on intelligence everything changed after the Iranian Revolution the Shah was
01:23overthrown Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini established the Islamic Republic the new government declared Israel
01:31as an illegitimate state and began supporting armed groups opposed to Israel from that point
01:39onward Iran saw itself as the leader of what it called the axis of resistance Israel saw Iran as its
01:48biggest
01:49long-term security threat the rivalry wasn't just ideological it became military to understand today's
02:02conflict better we must also understand the special relationship between the United States and Israel for
02:08decades Israel has been America's closest ally in the Middle East the reasons are strategic political and
02:16technological the US provides Israel with billions of dollars in military assistance American made fighter jets
02:24precision guided bombs missile defense systems and intelligence cooperation have become the backbone of
02:31Israel's Israel's military strength systems like Iron Dome David Slick and arrow have all benefited from American funding and cooperation
02:42Washington sees Israel as a stable democratic partner in a highly unstable region Israel intern serves as America's strongest
02:52military and intelligence partner in the Middle East that alliance has remained strong regardless of which party
03:01controls the White House for nearly four decades Iran and Israel rarely fought directly instead they fought through
03:15proxies Iran armed Hezbollah in Lebanon it supported Hamas in Gaza it backed militias in Iraq and Syria it also
03:24supported the
03:24the Houthis in Yemen Israel responded with intelligence operation cyber attacks and air strikes on Iranian positions across Syria it
03:34became known as the shadow war both sides wanted to weaken each other neither wanted a full-scale regional war
03:47foreign
03:48then came October 7 2023 Hamas launched one of the deadliest attacks in Israel's history
04:03Israel declared war on Hamas but the conflict did not remain inside Gaza Hezbollah began launching rockets from Lebanon
04:12Iran the Houthis started attacking commercial ships in the Red Sea Iran back militias targeted American bases across Iraq and
04:21Syria the region was suddenly fighting on multiple fronts Israel increasingly accused Iran of orchestrating the entire network Iran denied
04:32direct responsibility but continued supporting its allies the shadow war was becoming a real war
04:45foreign
04:45for the first time in modern history Israel and Iran exchanged direct attacks Iran launched waves of drones and ballistic
04:53missiles
04:53Israel retaliated the United States joined regional allies to intercept many of the incoming projectiles military planners watched closely
05:03they weren't just studying who fired more missiles
05:07they were studying something
05:09much bigger
05:10could even the world's most advanced air defense systems
05:15stop massive saturation attacks
05:17the answer wasn't entirely reassuring
05:20many missiles were intercepted
05:22some were not
05:23the conflict exposed both strengths and weaknesses
05:26on both sides
05:33now
05:34we come to the most important location in this conflict
05:38the Strait of Hormuz
05:39it is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea
05:45it separates Iran from Oman
05:47but don't let the size fool you
05:50nearly one-fifth of the world's traded oil passes through this tiny corridor
05:57countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar depend on it to export energy
06:05Japan, India, China, South Korea, Europe
06:09all rely heavily on energy shipments moving through Hormuz
06:14if this route is disputed
06:16oil prices can spike within hours
06:18that means higher fuel prices
06:21which we saw just now
06:23higher transportation costs
06:25higher food prices
06:26higher inflation
06:27in short
06:28a conflict in Hormuz doesn't stay in the Middle East
06:32it reaches every household
06:34Iran understands this
06:36that's why
06:37it has repeatedly warned
06:39that if it cannot export oil
06:41others may not be able to either
06:43even the possibility of disruption
06:46is enough to shake global markets
06:54today
06:55nobody appears eager for an all-out war
06:58Israel wants to weaken Iran's military capabilities
07:01Iran wants to demonstrate that it cannot be intimidated
07:05the United States wants to protect its allies
07:09while avoiding another prolonged Middle East war
07:12but
07:13every missile
07:14every drone attack
07:16every assassination attempt
07:18every naval incident
07:19raises the risk of miscalculation
07:22history shows that wars often begin
07:25not because leaders want them
07:27but because
07:28events spiral
07:30beyond anyone's control
07:36these are the three possible parts now
07:40that we have charted
07:41as far as the war is concerned
07:43the first is controlled confrontation
07:46small military exchanges continue
07:48proxy groups remain active
07:50diplomatic pressure prevents full-scale war
07:53this is currently the most likely scenario
07:56the second scenario is escalation
07:59one major attack causing heavy civilian casualties
08:02could trigger direct retaliation
08:05the conflict would expand across
08:07Lebanon
08:07Syria
08:08Iraq
08:09Yemen
08:10and the Gulf
08:11that could threaten
08:12global energy supplies
08:13and financial markets
08:15the third
08:16and least likely
08:17but most hopeful
08:18is
08:19diplomacy
08:20international mediators
08:22could push
08:23for new security arrangements
08:25regional powers may eventually conclude
08:27that continued conflict
08:29is too costly
08:30but trust
08:31remains
08:32extremely low
08:38the conflict
08:39between Israel
08:40Iran
08:41and the United States
08:42is no longer just about missiles
08:44it is about
08:45influence
08:46deterrence
08:47energy
08:48trade
08:49technology
08:50and the balance
08:51of power
08:52across the Middle East
08:53the Strait of Hormuz
08:55has become
08:55the world's pressure point
08:57every ship
08:59passing through it
09:00carries
09:01more than oil
09:02it carries the weight
09:04of the global economy
09:05the next few months
09:06may determine
09:07whether
09:08this remains
09:09a dangerous standoff
09:10or
09:11becomes a conflict
09:12with consequences
09:13far beyond the Middle East
09:15because when tensions rise
09:17in the Gulf
09:18the shock waves
09:19don't stop
09:20at its shores
09:21they travel
09:22across the world
09:23and eventually
09:24they reach
09:25all of us
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