00:00Samantala, kaugnay naman po ng balitang umangat na sa upper middle income status ng Pilipinas.
00:04Ayon po in the World Bank, makakausap po natin ngayon si RCBC Chief Economist Mike Ricofort.
00:10Magandang umaga po sa inyo, Sir Mike Dayan, kirar po ito ng Rising Time Pilipinas sa PTV4.
00:17Ay, magandang umaga po, Ms. Dayan, at sa inyo mga taga-subaybay po. Nice to be back po.
00:22Thank you for joining us today.
00:23Alright, Sir Mike, with this status natin, upper middle income,
00:27Ano-ano po kayo yung mga factors na nakatulong para maabot po ng Pilipinas itong status na ito?
00:33Ang kaming mista yan, long overdue na yan.
00:36Dapat na-achieve na yan for the past one or two years at least.
00:41Nag-delayed po yan eh.
00:42Kasi dahil maaring yung efekto pa rin ng pandemic eh, six years na yung pandemic eh.
00:50Had it not been for that, mas maaga po sana na-achieve ng Pilipinas yan.
00:54Tapos, last year, yung higher tariffs si Trump, diba?
00:59Nagkaroon ng, medyo bumagal yung world economic growth, no?
01:03Yung global trade, bumundo yun, napektado, no? Early last year.
01:07Tapos, syempre, nagkaroon ng government underspending din,
01:11on the latter part of 2025, due to the anomalous flood control projects.
01:15And then, this year, kaya ano, yung this year naman, yung gera rin sa Iran or sa Middle East, no?
01:23Although, yung data naman kasi yan, eh, world bank naman kasi.
01:27So, medyo may konting lag, syempre.
01:30Pero, ano eh, kumbaga parang, dapat mas maaga pang inaasahan yan.
01:38So, na-pushback lang, na-delay lang.
01:41So, ngayon lang na-achieve ng bansa natin.
01:44Kasi, kung titignan natin mabuti,
01:48yung, alabawa, kahit namang bago nitong taon na to,
01:52bago magkaroon ng underspending yung government late last year, no?
01:56Dahil nga, syempre, mas naging maingat sila sa government spending, eh, no?
02:00May mga anti-corruption pressures,
02:02kesa naman, ma-risk yung, or mapunta sa corruption,
02:06so, hindi muna gumastos at inayos nila, di ba?
02:09So, parang, well, at least, eh, yun, yung mga reforma ngayon, going forward,
02:14tinitignan din yan, no?
02:15Yung mga anti-corruption, yung, ah, yung mga reforma,
02:20that, especially, that would require legislation para i-level up
02:23at iangat lalo yung governance standards sa bansa natin, di ba?
02:27Yung mga anti-political dynasty bill, yung reforming the party list system,
02:33yung, ah, yung, ano, creation of an independent people's commission,
02:38pati na rin yung, ano, di ba?
02:39Yung, ah, yung, ano rin, yung, yung, yung cadena bill,
02:46yung, lahat kasi yun, para i-improve yung governance standards,
02:52anti-corruption measures,
02:53at, ah, pag na-level up yung governance standards,
02:57that would further, ano, improve the sentiment
03:00and the confidence of investors to,
03:03to put money here in the country, both local and foreign.
03:06Kaya, ah, yun, bukod naman kasi doon,
03:09ganito, katunayan, bago mag-pandemic,
03:13ang economic growth natin from 2012 to 2019,
03:16at least 6%.
03:17Tapos naman, si, siyempre, noong nagko-pandemic,
03:20di naiwasan, ay may mga, ah, may mga lockdown,
03:23may mga negosyo at industriya na may restrictions.
03:27Pero, natapos na kasi yan, nun,
03:30lahat ng COVID restrictions lifted na,
03:33nawala na, mula nung July 2023,
03:36o, pakatlong taon na yan, no?
03:38Kung mga, ah, tatlong taon may git na,
03:42mula nung March 2020,
03:442020, hanggang July 2023,
03:49pandemic time yun.
03:50Eh, ngayon, tatlong taon na na normal,
03:52na normal na yung ekonomiya.
03:53Katunayan nga, ah, bago ditong last year, no?
03:57Yung economic growth consistently,
03:59at least 5 to 6%.
04:01That is still among the fastest growing nations.
04:04Ah, in Asia, in Asia yan,
04:07yung, yung average growth natin,
04:09yung potential na mataas na yun,
04:10yung bago mag-pandemic, 2012 to 2019,
04:12at least 6%,
04:14that's among the fastest growing economies,
04:16among relatively larger countries worldwide.
04:19Kaya nga po, ano,
04:21maganda kasi yung demographics natin.
04:23May challenges, yes, yes,
04:24may mga, mayroon yung gera,
04:26yung pagtas.
04:27Pero ngayon kasi,
04:28yan, nung gera,
04:29nung war on Iran,
04:32umakyat, pinakamataas yung gasolina,
04:34diesel, lalo ng diesel,
04:36pinakamataas yung Abril.
04:37Eh, yung pumapana kahit yung world price,
04:40wala na, halos, ano,
04:41lahat ng tinaas ng world crude oil price,
04:45wala na,
04:47bumaba na, no,
04:49halos pareho na doon sa,
04:50yung level mo na nung gera.
04:52Kaya, mag-iis na yung inflationary pressures, no.
04:55Pero, syempre, may challenges pa rin,
04:57mayroon pa rin mga,
04:59ah, syempre,
05:00yung importation costs,
05:01medyo tumaas,
05:02kasi, buong mundo yung dollar,
05:03tumaas din, eh, no.
05:05Ah, buong mundo,
05:06meaning to say,
05:07kasi yung dollar-peso natin,
05:09nasa 61.50,
05:1261.60 levels recently,
05:14magmula nung gera,
05:15umakyat pa rin yun ng, ano,
05:17almost 7%,
05:18more than 6%.
05:19Hawig din yan,
05:20kasi umakyat yung dollar yan.
05:21The dollar yan,
05:22yung US dollar versus the Japanese din,
05:25that's the highest in, like,
05:2740 years.
05:28Mula nung latter part na 1986.
05:31Kaya,
05:32near 163 levels,
05:33kaya,
05:34umakyat yung dollar sa,
05:36ibang,
05:37hindi lang dito sa,
05:38well,
05:38sa maraming bahagi ng Asia,
05:41tasa yan.
05:42Kaya,
05:43may inflation pa rin kasi,
05:44pag mag-aangkat tayo,
05:45mag-import tayo.
05:46Diba,
05:47yung lang is,
05:47halos natin,
05:48na-import natin.
05:48It's true,
05:49bumaba na yung world price ng oil,
05:51ng,
05:51ah,
05:52pagkandang balita yun,
05:53at least yung inflationary pressures,
05:55bawas na.
05:56Pero,
05:57ano pa rin,
05:58yan,
05:58pag nag-aangkat tayo,
05:59dahil nga medyo mataas yung dollar,
06:02eh,
06:03magladagdag yung bill natin,
06:05ng mga,
06:06may git 6%,
06:07almost 7%,
06:08palitan pa lang ng pera yun.
06:10Kasi,
06:11bago mag-gera,
06:1157,
06:1260 levels yan.
06:13Okay.
06:14tapos ngayon,
06:15nasa 61.
06:16Oh,
06:16kaya,
06:16yung po yung,
06:17pero,
06:17yung,
06:18kung tingnan natin,
06:19may challenges,
06:19yes,
06:20nagkocopy yung mga Pilipino
06:21sa mataas na presyo na piliin.
06:23At least,
06:23ngayon,
06:23medyo naibsan na dusan lang is,
06:25yung sa importation costs na lang,
06:27at may El Nino.
06:28Tapos,
06:29syempre,
06:30yung nakatulong din,
06:30siguro,
06:31kahit papano,
06:32yung wage hike na in-approve sa Metro Manila,
06:3585 pesos,
06:3612.2%.
06:37Kasi,
06:37for the past couple of years,
06:402022,
06:412023,
06:422024,
06:43yung minimum wage hike,
06:44nasa at least 6 to 7%.
06:46Last year nga,
06:47at least 8% ng 2025.
06:49And compounding yun,
06:50maring nakatulong din yun,
06:52yung per capita income ng bansa natin.
06:55Medyo umangat,
06:56at may optionality din yung mga kababayan natin,
06:58kasi,
06:59hindi lang naman local yung employment at opportunity.
07:03Yung OFW remittances natin,
07:06more than $40 billion per year yan.
07:08We're the fourth biggest in the world.
07:10Baka,
07:11kahit tumas yung dolyar,
07:12may mga dollar earners naman tayo nakikinapang.
07:15Well,
07:15it's not all bad news.
07:16Sige,
07:16tumas yung importation costs,
07:18tumas yung dollar.
07:18Pero,
07:19nakikinapang dyan,
07:19yung mga kumikita ng dollar.
07:21No?
07:21Kasi,
07:22we're the...
07:22May pang-apa tayo na pinakamalaking ba siya?
07:25Let me just ask also another question.
07:27So,
07:27you mentioned all these factors,
07:29and also may mga challenges pa rin.
07:30But,
07:31in terms of effect po nito sa ating mga inaasang mga investments,
07:35ito po bang status na meron ito?
07:37We expect na mas marami po mga mag-i-invest sa ating bansa.
07:40And also,
07:41dun po sa mga ordinaryong Pilipino,
07:43how will they benefit with this upper middle income status?
07:47Considering na,
07:48baka may mga kababayan pa nga rin po tayo,
07:50syempre, affected nga po nito mga inflation,
07:52at yung mga pang-araw-araw po nilang mga desisyon na
07:55regarding na rin po sa mga bilihin naman,
07:57na kanila pong kinukonsumo araw-araw, sir.
08:00Opo,
08:01balance-in natin yan.
08:02Kasi,
08:03parang nangyari yan.
08:04This year,
08:04yung gera,
08:05tumas yung presyo ng mga bilihin.
08:06Pero ngayon,
08:07medyo naibisan na,
08:08tulad nga na binanggit ko.
08:09Pero,
08:10syempre,
08:10we need to contend yung mataas na dollar
08:13versus Asian and Asian currencies,
08:15pagtas ng importation costs.
08:17Syempre,
08:18may ambag pa rin sa inflation.
08:19Yung pagtas ng wages,
08:21medyo mix.
08:22Sige,
08:22makikinapang yung mga wage earners natin.
08:25Yung sa mga rehyon,
08:26kung sa ninaprove ng regional wage boards yan.
08:29Taon-taon naman yun eh.
08:31So,
08:32dagdag kita yun sa kanila.
08:33Yun ang tugon dun sa mataas na presyo na bilhin.
08:36Kahit pa paano,
08:36makakatulong din yun.
08:38Maring hindi lahat,
08:39pero malaking bagay din yun.
08:40Kasi,
08:41bihira yung 12.2% na,
08:43medyo unusual yun.
08:45Malaki rin yan.
08:46Kasi,
08:46dahil mataas din yung tinasa presyo early this year.
08:49Pero,
08:50hopefully may ibasan yun.
08:51Pero,
08:51syempre,
08:52meron pa tayong El Nino na iko-contend with.
08:55Merong,
08:56below normal yung rainfall.
08:58Meaning to say,
08:59eh,
08:59kasi may tira pang yung fertilizer,
09:01mataas pa rin.
09:02Bunsod pa rin doon sa gyere.
09:04Hindi po yung gyere naman.
09:04Kasi,
09:05yan,
09:05may 6-5,
09:0660-day negotiation.
09:07Mula ng June 17,
09:10bumaba na yung world price.
09:11Pero,
09:11hopefully,
09:12bababa din yan.
09:12Kasi,
09:13bumaba na yung world petroleum prices,
09:15yung mga input costs yan.
09:17Iba,
09:17LNG,
09:18no?
09:18At,
09:19kung unti-unti magre-resume yung supply sa world market,
09:22kung mag-nonormalize unti-unti yung pag-biyahin ng mga langis from the Middle East,
09:28yung dumada sa state of Hormuz,
09:29kasi that's 20% of the world's total oil,
09:33crude oil,
09:33and about 25% of the world's total liquefied natural gas,
09:37yung raw materials sa fertilizer.
09:39So,
09:40yung nang hinaharap natin ngayon,
09:42kung bawas yung rainfall dahil sa El Niño,
09:44hanggang early part of 2027 yan,
09:47eh,
09:48merong,
09:48kasi kung bawas yung rainfall,
09:50bawas yung ani,
09:51bawas yung supply,
09:52may chance na umakit yung presyo ng mga pagkain tulad ng bigas.
09:56In fact,
09:57hindi lang kasi yung dito,
09:58yung El Niño,
09:59hanggang kahit sa India,
10:01sa Thailand,
10:01sa Indochina,
10:02malaking part ng Asia,
10:04lalo na yung mga nag-export ng agricultural products,
10:06tulad ng bigas,
10:07kaya yung world rice price,
10:09nasa 10-month highs na.
10:11Kasi na uling na-experience natin yung El Niño,
10:14June 2023 to June 2024,
10:16meron din pagtaas ng presyo ng mga bilis.
10:19Yung realidad,
10:19kasi kulang ng rainfall,
10:22maaring nga tagulan,
10:23pero it's below average,
10:24at mararamdaman natin yan,
10:26lalo na pagka towards the summer months,
10:30yung early part of 2027.
10:32That's one.
10:33That's another factor.
10:34Kasi mahal na ngayong pataba,
10:37sana bumaba din naman yan.
10:39Parang yung rollback sa diesel,
10:40gasolina, LPG,
10:42sana mag-rollback din naman yung eventually.
10:45Kasi habang mahal yun,
10:47nag-ahambag din yun sa mataas na food costs,
10:49yung food production costs,
10:51tsaka kung bawas yung paggamit niyan,
10:53bawas yung rainfall,
10:54bawas din yung output.
10:55So, reduce yung supplies ng pagkain,
10:58demand supply yan,
10:59o may upward pressure,
11:01may pagtasa presyo ng mga pagkain.
11:02Okay.
11:03Well, with that,
11:04Sir Mike,
11:04maraming salamat po sa mga inputs
11:06na ibinigay po ninyo sa amin ngayong maga
11:09regarding this upper middle income status
11:10ng Pilipinas.
11:11Thank you very much
11:12for sharing expertise,
11:13RCBC Chief Economist,
11:15Sir Mike Ricofort.
11:16Thank you po, sir.
11:17Thank you po, Mr. Ian.
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