00:07Hallo und willkommen zu 12 Minutes With.
00:10Mein Gast heute ist Jakob Nagel,
00:12ein former National Security Advisor
00:14zu Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
00:17und ein Senior Fellow mit der Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
00:22Jakob Nagel, danke für uns heute.
00:24So, du hast sehr wichtig für den Iran-U.S. deal
00:28to seize hostilities.
00:30Can you explain us why?
00:32What I'm criticizing is that it's really giving Iran
00:37exactly what they want and need now.
00:40Not in the size they want,
00:41but they are getting, as I call, cash payment
00:45because the states are open for them
00:49to export for the next 60 days.
00:52Believe me, it will be much more.
00:54Their oil.
00:55So, billions of dollars will start spilling into Iran.
01:01Of course, they are not making from these billions
01:04food, water and good things for their people.
01:07They are going to rebuild their missile program
01:10and support the terror,
01:12especially Hezbollah, Hamas and others.
01:15I think they are not going to run
01:17to rebuild their nuclear program
01:20while Trump is around.
01:22If it was 18 months to a bomb before,
01:24and I'm talking a bomb on a missile,
01:26now it's about three years.
01:28I had to eat two years that Trump is there,
01:31so it's five years.
01:32Iran is feeling,
01:33even though they are on their knees,
01:36very weak,
01:37they got it from US and Israel
01:40on all ones.
01:42They are saying,
01:43we are the winners.
01:44Why?
01:45They took the only chip they had,
01:47the Strait of Tormoz,
01:48they closed it.
01:51And Trump,
01:52you know,
01:53listening to his
01:54closed allies,
01:57J.D. Vance,
01:57the Vice President,
01:59Whitcoff and Kushner,
02:00who is not listening
02:02to Exit and Rubio and others,
02:05he decided to go,
02:06and again,
02:06it's legitimate for him,
02:07but he has to say so,
02:09he decided to prefer now
02:10the American interest,
02:13the economy,
02:14he wants to take down
02:16the price of oil,
02:18his allies in the Gulf,
02:20Saudis,
02:20Bahrain,
02:21He has the midterm coming
02:22in November,
02:22sir,
02:23right?
02:23Exactly.
02:24He has the midterm coming
02:26in November.
02:26People are talking about
02:28his birthday,
02:29Mondial,
02:31Independence Day,
02:32believe me,
02:32those are nonsense.
02:34Right.
02:34What he has in mind
02:35is that the people
02:36in the US,
02:37they don't know
02:37where is Iran,
02:38where is Israel,
02:39what is enriched uranium.
02:41They just know
02:42how much they are paying
02:42for a gallon of oil
02:45when they go
02:45to the gas stations.
02:46So you think
02:47this deal is even worse
02:48than what was negotiated
02:49in 2015?
02:51You're calling it again
02:52a deal,
02:52it's not a deal.
02:53Okay,
02:54the deal to cease hostilities
02:55is how I described it.
02:56It's a memorandum
02:57of understanding.
02:58Okay,
02:58so this MOU
02:59is worse
03:00than what was signed
03:00in 2015?
03:02Again,
03:03it can cause
03:04to a final agreement,
03:07maybe there will be
03:07an agreement,
03:08I'm not sure,
03:09because the Iranians
03:10are the best negotiators
03:11in the world
03:12and they will drag it
03:12for two and a half years
03:14until Trump
03:15is leaving office,
03:16but if there will be
03:17a deal,
03:17it looks like
03:18it's going to be worse
03:20than the one
03:21that Obama did
03:22in 2015
03:23and Trump criticized
03:24very much.
03:25Why?
03:26Because I don't know
03:27what will be
03:28in the nuclear side,
03:29but remember
03:30that it's 10 years
03:31almost later,
03:32the Iranians
03:33are ahead
03:34in the technology.
03:35We took them back
03:36in the fissile material,
03:37especially in the
03:38weaponization,
03:39because the most
03:41critical scientists,
03:42they are not there anymore.
03:43So was the swore worth it?
03:45If his MOU is worse,
03:46was the swore worth it?
03:49If what we had
03:50in 2015
03:51was okay?
03:52No one,
03:53the deal of 2015
03:54was horrible,
03:55not good,
03:56very bad.
03:57It was a direct pass
03:59for a bomb
04:00to Iran.
04:01Okay.
04:01If,
04:02now I don't know
04:03what will happen
04:03in this memorandum
04:05of understanding,
04:05because there is nothing,
04:07nothing,
04:08about nuclear
04:09inside this memorandum
04:10of understanding.
04:11it's only opening
04:12rumours,
04:13giving Iran money,
04:14and that's it.
04:15Now,
04:15they are saying inside
04:17what they are going
04:18to talk about.
04:18I don't know
04:19what will be the result.
04:20So,
04:21now Israel is not bound
04:22by this MOU.
04:24Israel signed
04:25a separate deal
04:26with Lebanon,
04:28brokered by the U.S.
04:30It's a deal.
04:31It's a ceasefire.
04:32Are you confident
04:33it's going to work,
04:33knowing that Hezbollah
04:34said he would not
04:35abide by it?
04:36And some members
04:37of Netanyahu's government,
04:39namely far-right ministers,
04:41said denounce the deal
04:42as null and void as well.
04:44So,
04:45what do you think
04:45is going to happen
04:46on the Lebanese front?
04:47Just put aside
04:48those in Israel
04:50that are denouncing
04:51from left
04:52and from right.
04:53I'm talking about
04:53the 80-90%
04:55of the Israeli population
04:56and Knesset members.
04:59This deal is good
05:00and it's not excellent.
05:01Why?
05:02Why is it good?
05:03It says that
05:03Lebanon and Israel
05:04will decide
05:05about Lebanon
05:06and the sovereignty
05:08government of Lebanon.
05:10and it's written inside
05:11that Israel
05:12is not going to withdraw
05:13from Lebanon
05:14from our positions there
05:16that are protecting
05:17our citizens
05:18that we told them
05:20you can go back
05:21to your arms
05:21after you...
05:22The size of this zone
05:23is under discussion,
05:24but yes, okay.
05:25Again,
05:25it's something
05:26that Israel is staying.
05:27We gave them
05:28two pilot stations
05:29area
05:30very close
05:32to what we call
05:32the yellow line
05:3310 kilometers from Israel
05:35to see if they can
05:36clean it
05:36from Hezbollah.
05:38Now,
05:38while Hezbollah
05:40is not going to give up
05:41all of their weapons,
05:43this deal
05:43is not going to happen.
05:45But you think
05:45it's going to work?
05:46It didn't work in 2024.
05:48I don't think
05:49that this deal
05:51will work
05:52in the place
05:53that the Lebanon
05:55sovereignty government
05:56will take out
05:58the weapons
05:59from Hezbollah.
06:00No way.
06:00Because they don't want to?
06:01Because they can't?
06:02No,
06:03because they can't.
06:04They very,
06:05very much want to.
06:06It's written
06:07inside the agreement
06:08that this agreement
06:09will come into force
06:10only after
06:11all the groups
06:13that are
06:14holding weapons
06:15inside Lebanon
06:16are going to give it up.
06:18Do you ask me
06:19if this Lebanon,
06:20this weak Lebanon
06:21government
06:22will be able
06:23to do it alone?
06:24No.
06:25The only way
06:26that Hezbollah
06:27will give up
06:28is weapons
06:29if their supporters,
06:30the IRGC,
06:31the Iran,
06:31that are now getting money
06:32from the deal
06:33that we just,
06:34not the deal,
06:35the M.U.
06:35just,
06:35as I talked before,
06:37they'll spill money
06:38for them.
06:38If there is no regime,
06:40crazy regime in Iran,
06:42the Hezbollah
06:42will give up.
06:43But then it's a catch-22.
06:45Then it's a catch-22
06:46because Iran has said
06:48that it would not,
06:49the deal would never work
06:50if Sildes
06:51do not cease
06:52against Lebanon.
06:53So then what?
06:54Then there is no
06:56possible good ending.
06:58You are totally right
06:59that there is a catch-22.
07:00So there is a catch-22
07:03as an American
07:04for the U.S.-Iran deal
07:05and the Lebanon-Israel deal.
07:08Now we are saying,
07:10still,
07:11U.S. is our best ally.
07:12We like what they're doing.
07:13We work together with them.
07:15At the end,
07:15they will understand
07:16who is the Iranians
07:17and they will go back
07:18to make sure
07:19that the work is finished.
07:22And now they decided
07:23to go on the economy way.
07:26It's okay.
07:26Their legitimacy.
07:28We are not obeyed
07:29by this,
07:29we have the Lebanon.
07:31The most important thing
07:33about the Lebanon-Israel deal
07:35is that it's like
07:36putting a finger
07:37in the eyes of the Iranians,
07:39telling them,
07:39you did a deal with the U.S.
07:41Okay,
07:42Lebanon is not part of the deal.
07:44In Lebanon,
07:44we are the one
07:45that's calling the shots.
07:46Now you ask me
07:47how it's going to finish,
07:49I don't know.
07:50I don't know.
07:51You called it
07:52very, very correctly.
07:53It's a catch-22.
07:55And as always
07:56in our area,
07:57in our region,
07:58it's very interesting
07:59to be here.
08:00It's always something
08:02to do.
08:03Israel is strong.
08:05Israel is going
08:05to protect its citizens,
08:07especially in the north,
08:08but also in the south,
08:09like we did in Gaza,
08:11in Lebanon,
08:12and in Judea,
08:14and Samaria,
08:14and other places.
08:15In Iran,
08:15I hope the U.S.
08:17will understand
08:17that the Iranians
08:18are not telling them
08:19the truth
08:20and will go back
08:21to what we did before.
08:23Okay.
08:23Very quickly, sir.
08:25There's been a bit
08:26of a tension
08:27between Netanyahu
08:29and President Trump
08:30recently,
08:31and J.D. Vance
08:32actually also took stage
08:34and explained that,
08:35you know,
08:35Israel should stay
08:36in its lane.
08:37Do you think
08:38the relationship
08:39between the U.S.
08:40and Israel
08:40has been strained
08:41recently?
08:42Again,
08:43you're putting
08:45the right point.
08:47Israel and U.S.
08:49are best allies.
08:51They are our best friends.
08:52They are supporting
08:54Israel in the U.N.
08:55Security Council
08:56are supporting us
08:58with many other things.
08:59But as I said before,
09:02President Trump now,
09:03for this point,
09:04I think he is doing
09:05a mistake,
09:05but it's legitimate
09:07from his side,
09:08decided to prefer
09:10the American
09:11interest,
09:12meaning the economy,
09:14taking down
09:15the price of oil,
09:16being ready
09:17for the midterrain
09:18because his people
09:19told him,
09:19otherwise,
09:20you're going to
09:21lose the house
09:21and the Senate.
09:22We like very much
09:23that the U.S.
09:24will be with us.
09:26Sometimes,
09:26if they want
09:27its interest,
09:28okay,
09:29they'll come to
09:29their census
09:31and decisions
09:31very soon.
09:32They know
09:33who is good
09:33and who is bad.
09:34No, I understand.
09:35I understand that
09:35Israel wants to be
09:37strong on its own.
09:38However,
09:39it's dependent
09:39on U.S. aid.
09:41military aid.
09:42No, no.
09:43Well, partially.
09:44I mean,
09:44I know it has
09:45a very strong
09:45defense industry,
09:47but my point mostly
09:48is that
09:49how can it be
09:50a stable Middle East
09:51if the interests
09:52of the United States
09:53and Israel
09:54diverge so much
09:55right now?
09:55And again,
09:56you said before
09:57about the dependency.
09:58Israel is strong.
09:59Yes, we are getting
10:00an aid.
10:00I signed
10:01on the name
10:02of Israel
10:02the last agreement
10:03of 38 billion
10:04and I think
10:05there will be
10:05another one.
10:06But we are
10:06depending on
10:07the U.S.
10:08mainly on the
10:09main platforms.
10:10F-15,
10:12F-16,
10:12F-35.
10:13We're not going
10:14to build them
10:14alone.
10:15But the U.S.
10:15is selling those
10:16also to other
10:17countries.
10:17Are we going
10:18to do it
10:18with an American
10:19money,
10:19Israel money?
10:20It's totally
10:20different.
10:21I don't think
10:22the Americans
10:22are going
10:22to get
10:25all those
10:25things for us.
10:26All the other
10:27things,
10:27ammunition,
10:28tank shells,
10:30artillery,
10:31many main
10:32air to ground,
10:33we are doing
10:34it on our own.
10:35Israel is not
10:35depending in
10:36the United States.
10:37We are independent.
10:38Last question,
10:39if I may,
10:40we talked about
10:40a possible
10:41strained relation
10:42between Israel
10:43and the U.S.
10:44Now, I'd like
10:45to turn very
10:45briefly to the
10:46EU.
10:47I mean,
10:47you're aware,
10:48I guess,
10:49of the diplomatic
10:50spot that
10:50happened
10:51between the
10:52EU foreign
10:54policy chief
10:54Kayakalas
10:55and Israel's
10:56foreign minister
10:57Gideon Sakh.
10:59Are you worried
11:00about the future
11:01of EU-Israel
11:02relationship?
11:03I'm sorry,
11:03you're not going
11:04to like my answer.
11:05I was working
11:06very hard.
11:07When I was
11:07Israeli national
11:08security advisor,
11:09every month
11:10I was taking
11:10the 28 EU
11:13ambassadors in
11:14Israel and
11:14talking to them
11:15once a month.
11:16They didn't like
11:16it, I didn't
11:16like it.
11:17Unfortunately,
11:18we are asking
11:18the United States.
11:19the EU is
11:20not relevant.
11:21Now, about
11:22EU-Israel,
11:23at the end,
11:24I think that
11:25also the EU
11:26countries will
11:27come to their
11:27senses and
11:28will realize
11:29who are the
11:30good guys,
11:30who are the
11:31bad guys.
11:31See some of
11:32the countries
11:32inside Europe,
11:33and I don't
11:34want to say
11:34names,
11:35you go in the
11:36streets,
11:36there is terror
11:37inside Europe,
11:38I think,
11:39and there are
11:39some European
11:40countries that
11:41understood it
11:41and they took
11:42the law to
11:43their end.
11:44Some already
11:45lost the war
11:46against the
11:47immigrants.
11:48I think
11:49Europe is a
11:49big problem
11:50that they have
11:51to solve,
11:51and their
11:52problem is
11:52not Israel.
11:53Thank you,
11:54sir.
11:54Thank you for
11:54your time.
11:55Thank you very
11:55much.
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