00:00It's called white flight, but is it happening here in London?
00:04The phrase refers to white people leaving cities because they don't like immigrants settling in their neighbourhood.
00:09Well, BBC London has obtained new figures which do show rapid change in London's ethnic make-up.
00:15We've also been speaking to people who say white flight is happening, but are they right?
00:19In a moment we'll be discussing the issue, but first, Gareth Furby has this report.
00:25Are white people leaving parts of London?
00:29Trevor Phillips from the Equality and Human Rights Commission thinks they may be.
00:34Virtually every big city, there are places where different kinds of people feel uncomfortable,
00:39whether that's Asians in so-called white areas or white people in so-called black areas.
00:44We know that white flight is accelerating.
00:48So is Trevor Phillips right?
00:50Well, the census doesn't tell us much because it's too out of date.
00:54So we asked the government for some statistics it does collect every year on the population of London's primary schools.
01:03Looking back five years in every borough, the percentage of white British children has fallen.
01:10Across inner London, on average, under 22% of primary school children are white British.
01:18In Hackney and Tower Hamlets, it's under 15%.
01:22In Newham, under 12%.
01:25Of course, this doesn't prove white flight.
01:28It may just be down to different birth rates, for example.
01:31But it does show change in London, and nowhere, it seems, may be changing faster than here.
01:38The average fall across London since 2003 is just over 6%.
01:45In Barking and Dagenham, it's almost three times that figure.
01:50I was seven when the war broke out in 1939.
01:53This was soon after I got married, taken in 1953 in Malvern Drive.
01:58I was very happy. We were all very happy.
02:01But after a lifetime here, Norma, who doesn't want to give her full name, is ready to leave.
02:09Because Barking is not what Barking was. Nearly all the shops are foreign.
02:13Why can't you mix with different cultures?
02:15I do. I have mixed with different cultures.
02:17I mean, I've worked with some of these people, and they've been absolutely lovely.
02:20But that doesn't mean to say I want to live cheap by jail with them and slowly but surely find
02:24that I'm the only person left in an area where everybody else has moved away from, and that's what's going
02:29on.
02:31The Isle of Wight is where Alf Young now lives.
02:35They want to take over. That does annoy me.
02:37He's left behind a lifetime in Dagenham.
02:41And the Indians, the Poles and all that all turned up, and they just took over.
02:47It wasn't Dagenham as I knew Dagenham years ago.
02:51What do you mean?
02:52Even in the football crowd, the knives have been pulled.
02:55I've seen it in the pub. I don't want to know.
02:57More and more children moving into the schools who cannot speak a word of English.
03:01Tony Richards is a former journalist and qualified barrister.
03:05He's staying in Barking, but wants something done.
03:09And there's so many people who are in the process of selling their houses and moving.
03:13And I know a good many people who have moved, and I'm still in touch with them.
03:18And they're white?
03:19Oh, yes. They're all, yeah, white British, yes.
03:22But one expert on population movements says London has always been changing.
03:29London attracts people in, and then it redistributes them within London.
03:33It redistributes some of them away from London.
03:36The prediction from the Greater London Authority is that by 2026,
03:40pretty much 40% of London's population will be from a black, Asian or minority ethnic group.
03:48Rapid change that will face both supporters and opponents.
03:52Gareth Furby, BBC London News.
03:55Well, joining me here is Danny Sriskandaraja from the Institute of Public Policy and Research,
04:00and also Sir Andrew Green from Migration Watch.
04:03Welcome to you both.
04:04We had some strong views and concerns there.
04:07One thing that's clear, Danny, is that the overall trend in the change of the makeup of London.
04:12Are you surprised by those figures?
04:13I'm not surprised, because there's no denying that there is a lot of population change,
04:18and what's happening across the UK is probably most acute in a place like London.
04:23But I think there are two very important things to note here.
04:26One is that, yes, there are some people moving,
04:28and yes, there are people, like we've just heard,
04:31who are unhappy about the racial mix-up of places that they're living in.
04:36But the evidence suggests that what's really driving some of this movement
04:41is not to do with race necessarily, but to do with class and socioeconomic status.
04:45That young people with families want to move out of London,
04:49older people don't like to live in crowded places,
04:51and they're moving out to the home county.
04:53So I don't think it's race that's necessarily driving it.
04:55And the second point is that this has been happening in London for a long, long time,
04:58and not only has London survived, but it's thrived.
05:01London's success is built on the fact that it is a diverse place.
05:05But one of those issues, Sir Andrew, is obviously the rate of change,
05:09and in some areas like Barking and Dagenham, it's particularly acute.
05:12If we just take some of those figures,
05:14the number of white children in primary schools has gone down
05:16from 70% four years ago to just over 50%.
05:22We've heard that that is a natural rate of change.
05:24Should we be concerned?
05:26Well, I think that people are concerned, and I think we should be concerned.
05:29Yes, I think Trevor Phillips is right.
05:31There clearly is white flight.
05:33Migration Watch has done some work on this,
05:34and we found a close link between the number of people
05:38who leave a particular borough and the degree of ethnicity.
05:40So there's no question that there is a link.
05:43Of course, there are many reasons why...
05:44It's a causal link.
05:45It might be correlated, but it's a causal link.
05:47There are many reasons why people leave London.
05:49But the basic reason for this change, this very substantial change,
05:53is that the government have lost control of our borders,
05:55and the flow of immigrants into the country as a whole,
05:59many of whom come to London, has gone up four times.
06:02So can I just be clear, Sir Andrew,
06:03you're saying there is white flight, and that cause is immigration?
06:07I'm saying there is white flight, that immigration is a factor, probably,
06:11but there are many other reasons, as Danny says, why people leave London.
06:14But if you correlate the two, if you look at where people have gone from
06:17and the change in the ethnicity, there is a link between the two.
06:21This is a very complex process,
06:23and to reduce it to something about race and calling it white flight
06:26either means you've misunderstood the complexity
06:29and the various reasons why people move,
06:32or you're trying to misrepresent it and make this about race.
06:35No, I don't think so.
06:36I mean, you have a point.
06:38It is very complex, and these numbers in particular are not terribly strong.
06:41But there is a clear...
06:43It is clear that it is one element.
06:44And the other thing that is clear
06:46is that the reason that the whole picture is changing
06:48is because of the very large scale of immigration.
06:50That is obvious.
06:52Let me just say, one of the interesting points is to distinguish,
06:55as I think you alluded to, Danny, is between race and immigration.
06:59Because one of the views that we've heard a lot,
07:00and that's shared by both the indigenous population and British people
07:03who are from different ethnic backgrounds,
07:05is that they feel, has the time come now for a limit on immigration?
07:09I don't think so.
07:10I think we've just been through a period of economic boom
07:13where we've needed workers, and naturally we've had workers.
07:16But there were periods, for example, in the 1980s,
07:18when the UK, and indeed London, were losing large numbers of people,
07:22and we were talking and being worried about population decline.
07:27That was a long time ago.
07:28I think there's absolutely no question
07:30that the government have lost control of immigration.
07:32The public wants to see it dealt with, and they're absolutely right.
07:35OK. Gentlemen, thank you both very much indeed.
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