Putin's NEXT War Is About to Begin… Inside RUSSIA

The Military Show

Putin may be facing his most dangerous crisis yet—and it’s coming from inside Russia. As rumors swirl around Ramzan Kadyrov’s failing health, Chechnya stands on the brink of a succession battle that could shatter Moscow’s grip on the Caucasus. Could Kadyrov’s death trigger rebellion, independence movements, and a devastating blow to Putin’s legacy? In this video, we explore the growing threat that could spark Russia’s next war. What happens next may change everything.  ⏱️ CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Ramzan Kadyrov Illness Triggers Putin Chechnya Crisis 01:38 - Chechnya Succession Crisis and 18-Year-Old Adam Kadyrov 05:02 - Chechen War History and 160,000 Total Casualties 06:42 - Chechen Fighters in Ukraine War Resist Russia 08:19 - Russia Caucasus Mountains Strategy and Armenia Election Shift 12:01 - Will 21 Russian Republics Push for Independence?  Support us directly as we bring you independent, up-to-date reporting on military news and global conflicts by clicking here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheMilitaryShow/join  #militarystrategy #militarydevelopments #militaryanalysis #themilitaryshow  SOURCES: https://pastebin.com/xz7BfNBz

Transcript

00:00Putin has a problem. I feel like we say this a lot on this channel and it's usually due to

00:04something that Ukraine has done to expose Russia's leader, but not this time. Putin's latest problem

00:10is developing far away from Ukraine's territory, though it could be just as explosive in terms of

00:14the impact it has on Russia and Putin's legacy. Something big is breaking in Chechnya and Russia's

00:21leader can't change what's coming. Putin's next war is about to begin. But it's not going to be

00:26against the NATO nation or an escalation of what Russia is doing in Ukraine. The next enemy comes

00:31from inside Russia itself and it could end Putin. And everything revolves around one man, Ramzan Kadyrov.

00:39Since 2007, Kadyrov has served as the president, or more accurately, the ruthless dictator of the

00:44Russian Republic of Chechnya. Under his rule, Chechnya has remained under Russian sway, despite

00:50having fought several times for independence. Kadyrov is far from a calming influence. He is a brutal man,

00:56who has implemented Sharia law and cracked down on any attempt by those inside Chechnya who want

01:01independence to separate themselves from Russia. That's why Putin values Kadyrov. He's a hatchet man

01:07who wields his axe to ensure Russia maintains its influence, not only in Chechnya, but in the entire

01:13Caucasus region. But Kadyrov is dying. At least that's the rumor that started doing the rounds earlier in

01:202026. January saw the Moscow Times report that both Russian and Ukrainian media had been speculating

01:26that Kadyrov was suffering from kidney failure that may well be terminal. Of course, these were just

01:32rumors at the time, but they're starting to look like realities that Putin will soon have to face.

01:36In recent months, Kadyrov has been making moves that indicate he is looking to secure the place of a

01:41potential successor, or at the very least, ensure the safety of his family in a country where war between

01:47different clans is always a possibility. Kadyrov's children, who are young and have very little

01:53government experience, are being placed in key government roles. Nepotism, perhaps, but also a

01:58strange move being carried out by a dictator who himself is fairly young. Even stranger are the

02:04marriages of several of Kadyrov's children to officials in Chechnya. If you know anything about

02:08history, you know that marriage between the children of world leaders was often used as a way to build

02:13alliances and protect oneself from attack. Chechnya's clan-based society often works similarly.

02:19So, the marriages that Kadyrov's children are undergoing, just as with their promotions to key

02:23governmental roles, are all signs that Kadyrov is desperately trying to prepare his family

02:28for a future that doesn't have him in it. The man is making moves that suggest he is going to

02:33die soon,

02:34and it's this fact that is creating such a massive problem for Putin.

02:37What we are seeing here is a looming succession crisis that looks set to engulf Chechnya.

02:43For Putin, who has long relied on the stability that Kadyrov brings,

02:46at least in terms of his ability to subjugate Chechnya's clans,

02:50that succession crisis is a killer for Russia's position in the Caucasus.

02:54As Foreign Policy points out in a June 4 article,

02:58Chechnya has a history of generating chaos that is far beyond its relatively small size,

03:03and much of that chaos has focused on a desire among many in the country to achieve independence

03:08from Russia. If Kadyrov truly is on the verge of dying at the relatively young age of 49,

03:14that means Chechnya is on the verge of plunging into chaos.

03:17After all, when the strongman disappears, there is nobody to control the clans that still want

03:22to fight against Russia. Right now, Putin has to be asking himself a big question,

03:27who comes after Ramzan Kadyrov?

03:30Chechnya's current leader appears to be trying to groom his 18-year-old son,

03:34Adam, for the role. For Russia, that would be an ideal solution in some respects.

03:38It could allow Putin to provide an advisor, almost like a king's regent, to the new ruler,

03:43thus ensuring that Russia's influence pervades in Chechnya.

03:46But even this ideal scenario is fraught with problems. Adam Kadyrov is young, too young.

03:52That's why the subject of a regent would come up in the first place.

03:55This youth makes Kadyrov's son a much bigger target than Kadyrov himself.

03:59Adam could be seen as weak, a child in a man's job who could be targeted by other clans,

04:04especially those led by Kadyrov's rivals, who have been driven into exile.

04:08There are other children that Kadyrov could try to position as a new leader before he dies.

04:13Akhmat, who is a little over a year older than Adam, is the intellectual of the brood,

04:17the spectator says. But he is also devoid of charisma, and his father doesn't appear to consider

04:22him to be a worthy successor. Zelim Khan has the bloodlust that his father has, but he's so wild

04:27that he has essentially been banished to exile in the United Arab Emirates, so he seems to be out.

04:32That leaves Adam. A weak successor to a leader whose health appears to be failing,

04:37cast into the role of the man whom Putin has to rely upon to maintain his influence in Chechnya.

04:41The reality is that the death of the older Kadyrov is going to lead to a period of chaos in

04:46Chechnya.

04:47Even if one of the suns is elevated, Putin can hardly rely on the sort of iron grip that has

04:52allowed Russia to maintain its control over one of the most rebellious republics for almost two

04:56decades. A fight is incoming. And to understand more about why, we need to look a little deeper

05:02into the recent history of Chechnya in relation to Russia. We take you back to the 1990s and into the

05:08early 2000s. Do you remember that drive for independence that we mentioned is still very

05:12much alive in many of Chechnya's clans? That drive was at its peak during the late 20th century,

05:17as Chechnya engaged in a pair of wars with Russia that left deep scars on the nation.

05:22For Putin, those wars were opportunities. The second, in particular, saw him brutally bring

05:27Chechnya under control as he managed to turn Ramzan's father, Ahmad, to his side.

05:31By the end of the two wars, the blood of 160,000 people had been spilled, up to 40,000

05:38of whom

05:38were Chechen fighters and civilians, with the rest being representatives of various ethnic groups,

05:44as the Jamestown Foundation puts it. Most were Russian. But that didn't matter to Putin.

05:49What was important to him was that Chechnya was under control, and it has remained that way for

05:53around two decades. All of this means that Putin rose to power on the back of Chechen suppression.

05:59That's not just important in Chechen society, which has experienced two decades of brutality

06:03and the constant influence of Russia, encouraged by the country's dying leader. It was also vital

06:09for Putin. He could use his exploits, some might say war crimes, in Chechnya to establish his own

06:15strongman image. Putin solved the Chechen problem. He could solve any other problem that Russia faced.

06:21Only Putin didn't anticipate that a ruler who should have outlived him would end up on his deathbed far

06:25too early. And if Kadyrov dies, the potential for mass protests, renewed rebellion, and political

06:31mobilization among Putin's enemies is all on the table. Another war would have to be fought to

06:37control all of this. But this is where the Ukraine war becomes a major factor. Chechnya has played an

06:43interesting role in that war. On the one hand, those loyal to Kadyrov have fought on Russia's side

06:48throughout the conflict. But there are many Chechens who have instead taken up arms for Ukraine.

06:52G.I.S. reports that those who fight for Ukraine are often generally supportive of Ukraine maintaining

06:58its sovereignty. However, they also want to learn, to see how Russia fights and understand what Ukraine

07:03does to defend itself. Ukraine has cleverly encouraged this desire among some Chechens to

07:08learn in preparation for their battle for independence. In 2022, Ukraine officially recognized

07:13Chechnya's independence from Russia, in what was both a thumbing of the nose toward Putin and a signal

07:18to anyone in Chechnya who wished to fight that Ukraine would support their cause. The opportunity

07:23for that independence battle hadn't arisen until now. For decades, Putin has relied on one person

07:29and his brutal regime to control the desire for independence among many of those inside Chechnya.

07:34Now that one person appears to be on the brink of death. A power vacuum is forming, and those whom

07:40Kadyrov would prefer to take his place are too vulnerable to guarantee an easy transition for Putin.

07:44A fight is coming, and it's one that Russia isn't prepared for after more than four years of brutal

07:50war in Ukraine. And this is just the start of Putin's problems. What's happening in Chechnya

07:55right now is combining with other challenges in the Caucasus regions and among Russian republics

08:00that showcase the slipping of power out of Putin's grasp.

08:04But before we dig deeper into all of that, you're watching The Military Show, and this is why we make

08:08videos to show how power really moves. Hit subscribe if you like what you see. We publish videos every single

08:14day.

08:15Now, why does Russia care so much about Chechnya? After all, the country is far from a major power.

08:21With a population of around 1.5 million, and covering an area of just 17,300 square kilometers,

08:28Chechnya is almost more like a large city than it is a full-blown nation. However, small though it may

08:33be,

08:34Chechnya is crucial to Russia for several reasons. First up, Chechnya's location. It lies north of the

08:40Caucasus Mountains, which are vital because they allow whoever controls the territory around those

08:45mountains to also control access in and out of the West Asian region. Countries like Turkey and

08:51Iran are accessed via this mountain range, and it also served as a buffer zone for Russia. Not that

08:57Russia is at risk of attack from this direction, but when has that ever mattered to paranoid Putin?

09:01He still wants control over the Caucasus Mountains because he always wants to be ready for an attack.

09:06Plus, maintaining control feeds into his narrative of being the great Russian protector.

09:11A base is covered. Chechnya gives Russia control over a buffer zone that guards the motherland.

09:16But with Kadyrov seemingly on his deathbed, that control is starting to slip. And it gets worse.

09:22To the south of this mountain range lies Armenia, another region that Russia has been trying to control.

09:27Armenia took a massive step toward de-Russification in June. An election was held,

09:32and it resulted in Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan obtaining almost 50% of the vote and the main

09:37seat of Armenian power. Pashinyan overcame Russian-backed opposition and a massive disinformation

09:42campaign to achieve victory. And it seems likely that he is going to push for European Union

09:47membership along with deeper ties to the West. What all of this means is that Russia's hold over

09:52territory to both the north and south of the Caucasus Mountains is under threat in a way that we

09:57seen for decades. Armenia's shift has been gradual, conducted over many years. The crisis in Chechnya

10:04will be explosive, triggered by the death of one man. But in both cases, we see Russian influence

10:09waning. Putin tried as hard as he could to force Armenia into electing a Russia-friendly Prime Minister.

10:15Russia launched disinformation campaigns about Pashinyan. Putin made demands of Pashinyan during

10:20an April 1st meeting, along with threats about trade embargoes that Russia implemented as the

10:25election drew near. The point of no return, as Russian mouthpieces put it, was crossed without

10:30Armenia looking back. And in the end, Putin saw that his machinations were useless. To him, the West

10:37won in Armenia, and his grip on the Caucasus loosened. Now, with the Chechnya crisis looming, that loosened

10:43grip could fall apart entirely amidst infighting and Russia's inability to subjugate on behalf of a

10:49Kadirov-appointed leader due to expending so much of its military on the war in Ukraine. That brings us to

10:54another interesting point. Chechnya is a Republic of Russia. Though somewhat autonomous, it still

11:00falls under the control of Putin and is subject to many of Russia's laws. This is far from an

11:05uncommon arrangement. In fact, Russia has 21 republics, though it claims 22 when including

11:11illegally annexed Crimea. Imagine this scenario. Kadirov dies, and the inexperienced son he chooses

11:17to succeed him fails. Despite Russia's best efforts, another Chechen clan gains power and restarts the fight

11:24for independence that colored so much of Putin's early political career. Only this time, Russia

11:29is drained due to the Ukraine war. Russia has lost over 1.39 million soldiers. 12,000 tanks have

11:36been destroyed in Ukraine, along with more than twice as many armored vehicles. And even though

11:40Russia has a large enough army to fight against Chechen rebels, every soldier sent into the Republic

11:45is a soldier who can't go to Ukraine. Putin would have to prioritize, and Ukraine would remain

11:50his key focus. Putin can't stop the Chechen push. Chechnya succeeds and becomes independent.

11:57What does that mean for Russia's other republics? For some of them, it shows that independence is

12:02possible. Now, this doesn't mean that all 21 of Russia's republics would follow Chechnya's lead,

12:07but there are a few that have active independence movements of their own, and they will be possible

12:12candidates for becoming the next to decouple themselves from Russia. Back in February 2023,

12:17the results of online voting for an interesting poll named The National Online Referendum on

12:22Self-Determination of National Republics were published. Those polls were held in five Russian

12:27republics, and the results in all showed a desire for independence. Kuban was the republic that seemed

12:33most closely tied to Russia, with the vote for independence being just 55.7 percent. A majority,

12:39but not overwhelming. In Siberia, 63.9 percent said they want their republic to become independent.

12:45In Ingria, it was 66.2 percent. The Urals saw 68.2 percent vote for independence,

12:51and in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, 72.1 percent said they wanted to rid themselves of Russia.

12:58Of course, the caveats here are that the poll was somewhat informal, and it's unclear how many people

13:03who didn't vote would have chosen Russia. Still, every single one of these results suggests there

13:08are large contingents of people in these Russian republics who desire sovereignty, just as there is

13:13in Chechnya. If Kadyrov dies and Russia fails to hold onto this key republic, especially if that failure

13:19happens due to the military weakness caused by Putin's Ukraine war, that could be a signal other

13:25republics might try to follow. If they did, they will be buoyed by reports suggesting that Russia's

13:29defense ministry has hit a production dead-end, and that some polls, such as the one reported on

13:35by Pravda on June 19th, suggest that over 60 percent of Russians are tired of the Ukraine war,

13:40never mind others that Putin might try to start. Sure, Putin could start more wars. He could send

13:46troops to Chechnya and cause yet more bloodshed, perhaps even help to keep Kadyrov's chosen successor

13:51on the throne. But he'd only create more anger and resentment if he did. The same goes for the other

13:56five republics we mentioned. None can really stand up to Russia militarily, but that isn't really the

14:01point. Inspired by Chechnya's push, assuming it comes, they could all stand up, and even if they're

14:07put down, the message would be broadcast all over the world and inside Russia itself, Putin is losing

14:13control. On top of all of that, every push for independence that happens inside Russian territory

14:18is another distraction from a Ukraine war that is already going terribly. A special military operation

14:23that was supposed to last days is now well into its fifth year, which is why so many Russians are

14:28war-weary. Adding more wars on top of that seemingly endless conflict could be a recipe for disaster

14:35when it comes to Putin's reign. Enemies lurking in the shadows and looking for a reason to push Putin

14:40out could pounce. A 73-year-old man would find his focus split far too much, leading to something

14:46falling through the net. What's happening in Chechnya could be the start of Putin's downfall.

14:51It would also showcase the true limitations of Putin's power. Still, all of this is conditional

14:56on Kadyrov dying and the succession crisis that most anticipate actually happening. Let's assume

15:02all of this comes to pass, and it ultimately results in another Chechen war that forces Russia

15:07out of Chechnya for good. That allows us to look at all of this from another angle. The impact on

15:13Putin

15:13and the legacy that he wants to leave behind. It's no big revelation that Putin is incredibly concerned

15:19about the legacy that he is going to leave behind. He wants to be viewed as one of the great

15:23Russian

15:23leaders when he dies. It's why he was so brutal in his campaign to control Chechnya earlier in his reign.

15:29That thirst for legacy is one of the major motivators of the entire Ukraine war. Perhaps

15:34Putin's main goal is to leave Russia having established it once again as a major geopolitical

15:39player, and it will all be thanks to him. If Chechnya is lost amidst the succession crisis that Putin

15:45can't control, that will be his ultimate legacy. The man who subjugated the Chechen Republic lost it

15:50again two days later due to his own incompetence, all as he failed to take Ukraine and set the stage

15:56for other disenfranchised republics to push for their own independence. Putin would go down in

16:01history as a leader who lost Russia's access to the Caucasus mountains. The early defining actions of

16:06his presidency would count for nothing. And when he is rotting in the ground, Russia and the rest of

16:11the world will see him as a weak failure. That is Putin's greatest fear, which means he will do

16:17whatever he can to maintain Russia's hold over Chechnya. But whatever he can doesn't mean much

16:22when his country is embroiled in the Ukraine war. Putin has no plan B for Chechnya. Ramzan Kadyrov was

16:29supposed to outlive Putin, thus keeping the Russian leader's legacy secure. Oh, and by the way,

16:34there's a Chechen government in exile in Ukraine as we speak. That government has operated in exile since

16:39Chechnya's defeat during the Second Chechen War in 2000, and it claims to have 29 branches in 14

16:45European countries. Wouldn't it be the perfect form of poetic justice for Putin to lose Chechnya to the

16:51very government that he ousted over 25 years ago? And for that government to come back into power after

16:56receiving support from Ukraine, which is the nation Putin wants to conquer next? That's a possible future

17:02that Putin might face. And if Kadyrov dies, he may need to face that future sooner rather than later.

17:08All that Putin has left now is hope that the Chechnya crisis will somehow work itself out.

17:13Russia's leader is in the same position in terms of trying to maintain his grip over Crimea,

17:17but it isn't working. Putin's Crimea is on the verge of being over, and it's all due to Ukraine's

17:23brilliant strategy. Find out more about another so-called Russian Republic that is on the brink of

17:28de-Russifying in our video. And if you enjoyed this video, remember to hit subscribe so you can keep

17:33up with the military show and our coverage of Russia's many failures. And thank you for watching.

17:38I'll see you next time.

17:38Bye.

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