00:00You mentioned U.S. exceptionalism. In fact, you think there's an expiration date and that it's pretty soon.
00:06In fact, it's going to be this summer. This is a quote from your notes.
00:09You reckon around the mid to the end of the third quarter, but you say it needn't be bad.
00:14I presume that's because of some of what you just said. There are opportunities elsewhere.
00:18You also have your underweight in treasuries, for example.
00:22Where else, what other asset classes might you be expressing this through?
00:27Yeah, look, I think there is a bit of broadening in U.S. equity markets, right?
00:31Perhaps consumer stocks, you know, stuff like that.
00:34So really, the broadening in the U.S. equity market, that can continue. That's number one.
00:39I am grappling with when do we go back into Europe, right?
00:42Is that really something where perhaps people have given up a little bit too much on
00:46and are reading too much into that U.S. exceptionalism thing?
00:49Wanting just to give you an example, in our Q2 outlook three months ago,
00:53we wrote, second quarter will be all about U.S. exceptionalism.
00:56We'll talk way too much about geopolitics.
00:58We talk way too little about how strong the data is.
01:02Now, everyone's talking about the strong U.S. data.
01:05Everyone agrees that U.S. exceptionalism is back.
01:08Everyone wants to be paying U.S. rates and everyone's dismal on Europe.
01:13I think there is an expiration date around August.
01:15Why August?
01:16Because in June and July last year, remember, activity surprises took a little bit of, you know,
01:22a little bit of a dive because we had a bit of a payback from that front-loaded demand,
01:28that inventory buildup after Liberation Day.
01:31You know, what we feared was perhaps some sort of tariff-related, you know,
01:36tariff-related jump in prices.
01:39And then June and July data surprised a little bit to the downside.
01:42So, we have very low base effects now in June and July data for the U.S.
01:47That means, I think, for the next month and a half, two months,
01:50probably still pretty good.
01:51Still pretty good activity surprises.
01:53In August, I think then you want to take a couple of chips on the table,
01:56both on the rate side in that U.S. versus European duration call,
02:00but also perhaps really leaning a bit more into that European story.
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