00:00Let's get some more analysis with Dr. Mark Shanahan, who's a research fellow at the University of Surrey here in
00:06the UK.
00:07Good to have you back with us, Dr. Shanahan.
00:09What do you think is going through Keir Starmer's mind at the moment?
00:13Does he think the game is up and that really his position is no longer tenable?
00:18I'm sure he understands full well that he is backed into a corner and that his time is pretty much
00:26up.
00:27But for the moment, it's business as usual. He's still the Prime Minister.
00:31There has been no challenge against his leadership of the Labour Party.
00:36But Andy Burnham will arrive in Westminster tomorrow with a huge amount of momentum behind him.
00:43He was re-elected to Westminster through an engineered by-election purely to get him in to be in a
00:52position
00:52where he could challenge the leadership of Keir Starmer and ultimately become Prime Minister.
00:58Now, the sense is that there may not even be a leadership contest,
01:03that it may be that Keir Starmer walks away, does it in such a way that he can manage the
01:11process
01:12and do this at the time of his choosing.
01:15It may not turn out to be quite as easy as that.
01:17At the moment, Keir Starmer is Prime Minister. Andy Burnham is the likely next Prime Minister.
01:23But he needs time to prepare.
01:25And actually, it may be the media that is largely rushing us to a more messy, much quicker conclusion.
01:33So how do you think the next few weeks could look like if Keir Starmer does set out a timetable?
01:39How could this unfold? How quickly could it unfold?
01:42Or is it likely that there would be a sort of transition process rather than it being an overnight change
01:47in leader, for example?
01:48Yeah, it won't be an overnight change in leader. I don't think that is going to happen.
01:54And the whole of the Labour movement, all of the party behind the Parliamentary Party,
01:59would like it to be a managed process.
02:02That could go in one of two ways.
02:04It could be that Andy Burnham is the clear successor,
02:07that he has a consensus of MP support behind him, and there are no other challenges.
02:14But he's not the only person who would like to be leader of the Labour Party and therefore Prime Minister.
02:22They're far and away the largest party in Parliament, have a government majority of over 150.
02:28There are still other people. The Health Secretary was streeting, resigned,
02:33pretty much to kick off this process of challenging Keir Starmer,
02:37and there are other people circling around.
02:40If it becomes a contest, it's going to take longer.
02:43Parliament breaks for the summer in July.
02:46It could well be September before we have a new leader.
02:50or if that's not true for both numbers,
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