00:00Bloomberg's Denitza Tsakova did analysis of these well-timed bets along with the team.
00:05Denitza, I mean, this is something that the market has certainly paid attention to after Iran,
00:09whether it be equities, oil, poly market.
00:12What did the analysis show that you and the team did?
00:14So, yeah, we've been looking, obviously, a lot about insider trading and prediction market.
00:18But what happened is actually all the contracts related to the Iran wars
00:22have been the ones with the highest percentage of insider trading.
00:25Just today, we had one cash out about $1.5 million.
00:30It was around the Iran peace deal.
00:31That was the latest.
00:32Just on one market, their profit was like $400,000.
00:36So we're seeing those profits grow rapidly.
00:39Obviously, prediction market just in the past six months, the volume has doubled and tripled.
00:43And realistically, all those people have insider information profiting more and more.
00:47We have seen those companies clap down on insider trading.
00:51But nevertheless, we're seeing that activity continue to be strong.
00:53A lot of the analysis is on poly market, which kind of has been in the center of attention.
00:59We looked at the broader number.
01:01We saw $45 million in suspicious transactions.
01:04This is just based on Iran strikes, Iran peace deal, and some of those Iran-adjacent markets.
01:11But definitely one of the biggest categories for insider trading.
01:14Is insider trading a feature of the Trump administration?
01:19Or is it just that we can more easily see it because of the rise of poly market and Calci
01:26and these betting markets?
01:28I think more of the latter.
01:31Prediction markets open a whole new universe of bets.
01:34We write a little about poly market, but poly market is very different than the stock market and everything else
01:39we see.
01:40It's on the blockchain.
01:41We can go, and I can see all those trades.
01:43I can see a lot of the insider trades obviously happen, like, a few minutes before a big announcement.
01:48It's from a wallet that was created two hours ago.
01:50That's one of the cases we wrote about.
01:52So it's much easier to figure that out.
01:54It's much harder to do it in the stock market.
01:55It's much harder to do it in the old market.
01:57I mean, you could argue Congress has been doing this in the stock market for decades.
02:01Yeah, I think that's the main argument when you ask prediction markets forums.
02:05They're like, okay, this is nothing new.
02:07I think here it opens new bets.
02:09Like, in the stock market, you cannot bet on the outcome of strikes on Iran.
02:13You cannot bet on geopolitics.
02:15You cannot bet on a peace deal.
02:16You cannot bet on markets where your personal action can influence the outcome of the event
02:22and maybe could even influence violence and, you know, all those things, which things get very risky.
02:28And I think that's one category.
02:30But they pulled back on some of the things, right?
02:31Like, you can't bet on, like, nuclear obliteration or people dying or things like that.
02:36Yeah, exactly.
02:37I mean, nuclear obliteration would be a losing bet in either way, right?
02:39It would be a losing bet.
02:40You're right.
02:40Yeah.
02:41Yeah.
02:41But it's really the extreme outcomes.
02:43There are still very, you know, dangerous outcomes that are available.
02:47Most of them are on polymarket.
02:49But it just opened this whole new category.
02:51And most of the cases that have been flagged are in the U.S.
02:54But you can imagine that a lot of foreign nationals can also access those websites.
02:57Like the French weather situation.
02:59The French weather one was a fun one.
03:01It is a fantastic story.
03:03This is in Business Week.
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