00:00You said you don't like forward guidance. You dropped it from the statement this time.
00:04But with the dot plot, nine members suggested that they want a rate increase by the end of the year.
00:10And the markets have taken that as forward guidance.
00:14So what does this mean in terms of how you guide the markets and in terms of what the dot
00:22plot's future is?
00:25I'm going to have to give you the same answer I gave to Ms. Smith.
00:29We've got a task force for that.
00:31I'll give you a little bit more.
00:34I reviewed the dot plots and when I saw the submissions, I noted that all the submissions were coming in
00:41with pencils.
00:42You know, those kind with the big erasers.
00:45That's to say that I think my colleagues around the table, when they submitted their dots, understand the world is
00:51changing quite quickly.
00:52And they didn't feel bound by them six weeks from now or six days from now in the event that
00:58their circumstances change.
01:00I'll note a couple other things.
01:02What I heard around the table was as they submitted their modal forecasts, their modal forecasts, to be clear, weren't
01:10this was more likely than not.
01:12But this was this was more likely than their other scenarios.
01:16So I didn't hear tons of conviction.
01:20What I heard was the kind of humility that I think we should have.
01:24I did not submit a dot.
01:26For me, it's not helpful in the conduct of policy.
01:29I suspect by year end, as I mentioned in my opening statements, there'll be a review about communications broadly, press
01:39conferences, dots, meetings and the like, transcripts, minutes.
01:45This will be part of that.
01:46I don't want to prejudge the outcomes there, but I'm pretty open minded about what they could be.
01:52And I was just incredibly impressed over the last couple of days.
01:56My colleagues over the last two days and frankly, the first three weeks I've been here, they've been very open
02:02about changes, changes in easy, changes filled with risk.
02:06But our number one goal is to get monetary policy right.
02:10The way to get monetary policy right is to deliver on the remit that Congress gave us, to deliver on
02:16price stability.
02:17And there was no disagreement on any of those points.
Comments