- 7 hours ago
八点最热报 | 美国总统特朗普高调宣布，美伊已经电子签署停战初步协议，星期五将在瑞士正式签字，118艘油轮正准备开出海峡了。然而，这一切在特朗普口中亢奋的言辞，真得显示美伊达成了协议吗？还是这场持续几个月的战争，只是按下了一个“暂停键”？如果仔细看双方公布的信息，不难发现一个关键问题：达成的不是和平协议，不是最终停火协议，而只是一份谅解备忘录（MOU）。（主播：蔡心慧）
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00:00A reminder before watching the video
00:01Popular websites have more content
00:04US President Trump makes a high-profile announcement
00:06The US and Iran have electronically signed a preliminary ceasefire agreement.
00:09The formal signing will take place in Switzerland on Friday.
00:12118 cruise ships are also preparing to sail out of the strait.
00:16However, all of this was expressed in Trump's excited words.
00:19Does this really indicate that the US and Iran have reached an agreement?
00:23Or this war that lasted for months
00:25I just pressed the pause button.
00:28If you look closely at the information released by both sides
00:30It's not hard to spot a key problem.
00:32It was not a peace agreement.
00:34Not a final ceasefire agreement
00:36It was merely a letter of understanding that was circulated online.
00:39Many people heard about signing an MOU
00:41I subconsciously feel that things have been settled.
00:44But in fact, the opposite is true.
00:46The most distinctive feature of an MOU is that both parties agree to continue moving forward.
00:51But many of the most critical issues
00:53Actually, we haven't really discussed it yet.
00:55It's more like a document agreeing in principle to continue negotiations.
00:59Instead of a fully binding final agreement
01:03in other words
01:04It is not the end.
01:06Rather, it's the process.
01:06Not the answer
01:08Instead, it's a buffer.
01:09This MOU is expected to be signed on Friday.
01:11How many hidden, unexploded potentials are there?
01:15And that's where the problem lies.
01:17If the two sides have indeed reached an agreement
01:19Why are the interpretations of the agreement's contents so different between the United States and Iran?
01:23Significant differences
01:25The United States says the Strait of Hormuz will remain open to the public free of charge for a long time.
01:28Iran says it will not charge tolls.
01:31However, fees will be charged for maritime services such as navigation insurance and environmental protection.
01:36The US says that lifting asset freezes and sanctions is contingent on Iran fulfilling its commitments.
01:41As a premise
01:41However, Iran has repeatedly emphasized that the asset removal and economic benefits are the next steps.
01:46Key conditions for negotiations to proceed
01:49The same MOU has given two different versions.
01:52This means that what the two sides have reached so far may only be a vague framework.
01:57Rather than specific consensus
01:59More importantly, all the issues that truly determine the success or failure of the agreement...
02:03Actually, everything was postponed.
02:05What are Iran's plans and how will it handle this?
02:07What to do with 60% high concentration oil?
02:09When will the frozen assets be lifted?
02:12To what extent have US sanctions been lifted?
02:14Will the timber trade channel be charged or made free in the future?
02:18These are the most sensitive, complex, and conflict-prone issues.
02:22It has not yet been included in the core content that has already been made public.
02:25Instead, all of them are being pushed forward to technical negotiations over the next 60 days.
02:30In other words, both sides have only temporarily suspended the war.
02:33But the accounts haven't been settled yet.
02:35That's why US Vice President Vance frankly said
02:39This document is only one and a half nights old.
02:41Moreover, many issues must be left unresolved.
02:43The next phase of technical negotiations will resolve this.
02:47After the US bombing Iran
02:49Iran's unequal countermeasures
02:51The Strait of Hormuz was blocked.
02:53Lockdown for nearly four months
02:54Both the United States and Iran have confirmed that they will meet this Friday.
02:57After signing a ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU)
03:00US President Trump was the first to announce the good news on social media.
03:05The strait is about to fully resume navigation.
03:08He said the ships had begun to sail out of the Strait of Hormuz.
03:11This route is completely safe, reliable, and scenic.
03:15He also met with the French president later.
03:18Once again, they couldn't wait to declare victory.
03:44We are happy to say
04:01The strait is resuming navigation.
04:03The tanker is resuming operation.
04:05Market confidence is recovering.
04:07But what really needs attention is...
04:09It's not actually a transmission anymore.
04:11But what exactly was signed in the agreement?
04:13In the next 60 days
04:14Can the two sides reach an agreement that is acceptable to both sides?
04:18Everyone must understand
04:19The US and Iran are set to sign an agreement on Friday.
04:22It is not a formal peace agreement
04:24Instead, it is a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)
04:26And even the United States itself has admitted it.
04:29This document is very brief.
04:31It's like many listed companies trying to inflate their stock prices.
04:34Signed a bunch of MOUs that seem to have great potential
04:37Through the media to promote Da Da
04:39Ultimately, the project may never have come to fruition.
04:42MOU is half a page
04:45So this is a very ordinary file.
04:48On many issues
04:49We will handle this during the technology negotiation process.
04:53in other words
04:54Signing on Friday does not mean the problem is solved.
04:57This actually means that the real negotiations have only just begun.
05:00The biggest disagreement between the two sides has now come to light.
05:03Trump said
05:04Strait of Hormuz
05:05It will be open for free in the future.
05:07However, Tehran offered another version.
05:10We always say we'll be rejected.
05:13We will be rejected.
05:13We will be rejected.
05:14But we will use some tools
05:16Required tools
05:18tool
05:18tool
05:19tool
05:19tool
05:20tool
05:20tool
05:20tool
05:21tool
05:21tool
05:36How to handle the MOU core plan that took place overnight?
05:39How to limit oil concentration?
05:41How to unfreeze frozen assets
05:43How to lift sanctions?
05:44All these issues were addressed in the technical negotiations 60 days later.
05:48This is not a peace agreement
05:50This is a note that says we'll leave other things for now and talk about them later.
05:54To boost everyone's confidence
05:56Trump has made a high-profile announcement
05:58May has electronically signed the fundraising agreement.
06:02The formal signing will take place in Switzerland on Friday.
06:04He himself may not be present.
06:29The biggest risk at hand is not the failure of the agreement.
06:32Instead, the outside world mistakenly believed that the problem had been solved.
06:35Because the MOU is inherently a transitional file full of variables.
06:39What's even more intriguing is
06:41Two versions of the same MOU appeared.
06:44The United States emphasizes prioritizing compliance with its treaty.
06:46Iran emphasizes prioritizing its own interests
06:48The US demands conditions.
06:49Iran must deliver.
06:51On the surface, both sides are declaring victory.
06:53But in reality, they were still haggling.
06:56To put it bluntly, what Trump needs is time.
06:59Iran wants cash.
07:01Trump needs oil prices to fall.
07:03suppress inflation
07:04To buy breathing space for the midterm elections
07:07Iran, on the other hand, needs its assets frozen.
07:09Economic benefits and opportunities to re-enter the international market
07:12Both sides have reasons to press the pause button first.
07:16However, the pause button is never the same as the end button.
07:20So the real decision
07:21Will the Middle East's future not be a Friday? Will an MOU be signed?
07:25Instead, 60 days later
07:27Those issues that were deliberately shelved
07:29Can we find the answer?
07:31Friday's 1,000-word speech may just be the end of the first round.
07:35The second round has just begun.
07:38The real tipping point will come in 60 days.
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