00:00But how long before households actually see the difference?
00:02Now, I want to take into consideration here that spike came into effect almost instantly after the 28th of February.
00:08The reverse of this does seem to take a little bit longer, though, right?
00:11And it will. I think it's going to be some time.
00:13We've already been hearing from even those companies that are moving not just oil around, but also big container vessels,
00:24which are stuck, in fact, right now.
00:26So it takes a little bit of time for that to unlock itself.
00:30And we know that there are serious issues about whether there are mines in the Strait of Hormuz that may
00:35need to be cleared and how the cooperation would work between particularly the US and Iran.
00:40So there are all these issues which will therefore still attach a sort of war premium, if you like, on
00:46oil prices.
00:47So they will stay high for longer.
00:50Of course, they have come down, as you rightly say, about $80 a barrel is not bad, in fact, compared
00:55to the heights that we had reached before.
00:59But we've got to also remember other things that happened during that period.
01:03First of all, that inventories went down very significantly.
01:06I think they went down in the US.
01:08If you look at strategic oil reserves, they were being depleted to a considerable extent.
01:12They all need to be rebuilt, which I think is going to be a big issue.
01:16So for a while, demand will still be there to get us back to normality.
01:21So in other words, we're not suddenly going to see a huge increase in the supply of oil that will
01:28bring prices down quite significantly,
01:29because a lot of the positions that we had before when we were in a normal situation, if you like,
01:34are going to have to be rebuilt.
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