00:00Oil prices fell on the news of a U.S.-Iran framework deal to end a war that paralyzed shipping through
00:06the Strait of Hormuz for the past three and a half months.
00:09Even if the deal holds, a return to pre-war production and shipping levels through the key energy corridor could
00:15take months or longer to fully recover, says Robert Harvey, Reuters energy correspondent in London.
00:21In general, consensus view seems to be that analysts and agencies are anticipating a staggered recovery where, for example, you
00:33may receive or return around 70% of production within three months and around 90% within six months.
00:44But it's really a huge volume of oil, which is taken out of production by the closure of the Strait
00:53of Hormuz, 14 million barrels per day, or around 14% of the world's daily oil demand.
01:00So it's really quite a lot of supply to bring back to the global markets.
01:04It's not just production facilities that need to restart, but a global shipping fleet that will need to respond.
01:10They've moved away from the region and, you know, it's going to take some time for the global fleet to
01:18kind of normalize and for vessels to come back to almost to pick up the oil inside the Gulf when
01:25it's ready to be exported again.
01:27And plants that were struck during the war will have to rebuild.
01:30I know Qatar Energy's CEO said that returning to full capacity could take years after Iranian strikes on that facility
01:38had taken out around 17% of its capacity.
01:41According to Reistad Energy, the Middle East's total repair spending is likely to average around $46 billion.
01:47As a result of the supply disruption, the world's oil stocks are dwindling and a return to normal levels will
01:54be prolonged, possibly taking years.
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