00:00Oil prices fell on the news of a U.S.-Iran framework deal to end a war that paralyzed
00:05shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for the past three and a half months.
00:09Even if the deal holds, a return to pre-war production and shipping levels through the
00:14key energy corridor could take months or longer to fully recover, says Robert Harvey,
00:19Reuters energy correspondent in London.
00:21In general, consensus view seems to be that analysts and agencies are anticipating a
00:29staggered recovery where, for example, you may receive or return around 70% of production
00:39within three months and around 90% within six months.
00:44But it's really a huge volume of oil which is taken out of production by the closure of
00:53the Strait of Hormuz, 14 million barrels per day or around 14% of the world's
00:58daily oil demand.
01:00So it's really quite a lot of supply to bring back to the global markets.
01:05It's not just production facilities that need to restart, but a global shipping fleet
01:09that will need to respond.
01:11They've moved away from the region and, you know, it's going to take some time for the
01:17global fleet to kind of normalize and for vessels to come back to Hormuz to pick up the
01:23oil inside the Gulf when it's ready to be exported again.
01:27And plants that were struck during the war will have to rebuild.
01:30I know Qatar Energy's CEO said that returning to full capacity could take years after Iranian
01:37strikes on that facility had taken out around 17% of its capacity.
01:41According to Reistad Energy, the Middle East's total repair spending is likely to average around
01:46$46 billion.
01:47As a result of the supply disruption, the world's oil stocks are dwindling and a return to normal
01:53levels will be prolonged, possibly taking years.
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