00:00We don't get to see the contents of this MOU until Friday.
00:03In the meantime, we're just left with speculation.
00:06So I invite you to speculate. What's in it?
00:10Well, I mean, that's the problem. We just don't know.
00:14From what we can tell, this appears to basically be another ceasefire.
00:19It's kicked the can down the road on all the challenging issues.
00:23So when it comes to things such as the nuclear issue,
00:26that's thought to be something that will start to be negotiated
00:28after the deal is signed.
00:32So it's thought to be negotiated in the 60 days afterwards.
00:35I haven't seen anything to do with ballistic missiles,
00:38which were a sticking point in the nuclear talks
00:41that happened before this war kicked off.
00:43So really, we just don't know.
00:45But it doesn't seem to be substantively any different
00:47than any of the previous deals we've seen come through.
00:52Yeah. And do you feel that it is genuine de-escalation in that respect?
00:56Or is it just a temporary tactical move by one side or other or both
01:00in pursuit of some other agenda?
01:04I mean, it's very difficult to know.
01:07I mean, I think both sides at this point do want to reach a deal.
01:11But there are so many moving parts going on here,
01:15you know, with so many issues with the implementation.
01:17We've seen what happened overnight where, you know,
01:20Israel has been bombing Lebanon again,
01:22which has already, you know, been a really big issue
01:26in previous iterations of the deal.
01:28There are serious questions within Iran
01:31about whether the U.S. is actually a credible negotiating partner anymore
01:34since, you know, it did sign on to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
01:37in 2015 and then unilaterally withdraw from it.
01:41It was involved in talks.
01:43Iran and the U.S. were involved in talks in June last year
01:45before both Israel and the U.S. bombed Iran.
01:51And then it was involved in talks with the U.S. just in February,
01:53just before this war broke out.
01:54So there are some really, really serious issues in terms of the credibility
01:59of particularly the U.S. as a negotiating partner.
02:02And I think, yeah, it's hard to be very positive about what we're seeing here.
02:08Yeah, let's talk a little bit more about the role of Israel
02:10because, of course, not a signatory to this MOU,
02:13but its actions could have a profound impact on its endurance.
02:17I mean, is there enough here and the little that we do know
02:21to prevent Israel from acting against some real or perceived threat?
02:26Yeah, and I mean, the key thing is that Israel was one of the key players
02:30that started this war.
02:31It was a joint operation by the U.S. and Israel.
02:34So, you know, it was one of the warring parties to start with.
02:38And it's not one of the signatories to this deal.
02:41And we know that Israel has targeted,
02:45has continued to lead military operations in Lebanon
02:48against Donald Trump's wishes.
02:50I mean, there have been a couple of very heated phone calls
02:52in recent weeks that we know about.
02:54And, you know, you can assume that it's far worse behind closed doors.
02:57So it's clear that the relationship between Israel and the U.S.
03:01is under strain.
03:02And I think probably whether or not Israel continues to act as a spoiler
03:07and this deal would depend on how much Donald Trump can get it under control.
03:15What's your expectation for the smooth passage through the Strait of Hormuz
03:19of oil, gas, derivatives of those products, fertilizer and the like,
03:24considering that Iran, in theory,
03:27did know it could close the Strait of Hormuz previously,
03:30but Nara knows it for sure.
03:33Yeah, I mean, look, it's going to be a really challenging time
03:37for, you know, any company involved in imports and exports
03:40through that region.
03:42You know, it's going to be an absolute logistical nightmare
03:45to get things reopened again.
03:47You know, just even like in terms of where ships currently are,
03:51there's obviously, you know, a large number of ships
03:53still stationed in the Persian Gulf,
03:55but there's ships that are, you know, are all over the world.
03:57It's going to take a long time until they can,
03:59they'll be back in the Gulf.
04:01You know, there's the questions of demining,
04:03whether it's actually safe to go through the Gulf.
04:05And there's also been huge damage to energy infrastructure in Qatar,
04:09in Kuwait and Iran as well.
04:11So, I mean, there's huge challenges there logistically,
04:14but I think there's also challenges in terms of confidence.
04:16You know, if you were running a global shipping line,
04:20you know, or looking to import or export goods,
04:22would you put your ships in harm's way?
04:25It's been so volatile.
04:26You know, this strait has been opened and closed and opened and closed
04:30and it's been mined or hasn't been mined.
04:32You know, it's been such a volatile period
04:34that I'm sure there'll be a lot of reticence throughout the market
04:36to actually, you know, return to business as usual.
04:41And how about the political environment in the Gulf going forward as well?
04:45Because, you know, previously Iran had an uneasy,
04:47if not workable relationship with its neighbours.
04:49But now, after bombing the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and others,
04:53how do you see this relationship evolving?
04:58Yeah, look, I think it's going to be a really complex time,
05:01probably in the medium term, in the Gulf.
05:04I mean, obviously Iran, the relations between Iran
05:07and several of its Gulf neighbours had improved in recent years.
05:10And I think you can guarantee that there will be setbacks
05:14in that relationship as a result of the fact
05:16that Iran has directly targeted them.
05:19And that includes states such as Qatar, you know,
05:21which really have worked very closely with Iran over the years too.
05:24And that hasn't saved them.
05:26So I think there certainly is going to be a reckoning there.
05:29But I think probably the larger political change
05:32that's going to take place throughout the region
05:34is going to be the role of the U.S.
05:36because these Gulf states have allowed U.S. troops
05:39to be on their soil.
05:40You know, some have hosted bases
05:42or various aspects of the U.S.'s military footprint.
05:46And as a result of that, they came under fire
05:48and they have suffered, you know, in this war.
05:51And the U.S. has done very little to protect them.
05:52So I think actually, you know,
05:54the biggest political backlash from this
05:56is going to be in the U.S.'s relations with those countries.
06:01Some, such as the UAE, seem to be digging in
06:04and moving closer to the U.S. or Israel.
06:06But others, I think there will be an opportunity
06:08for China to move in now.
06:10So I think there will be an opportunity for China to move in now.
06:10So I think there will be an opportunity for China to move in now.
06:10So I think there will be an opportunity for China to move in now.
06:10So I think there will be an opportunity for China to move in now.
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